The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 8 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Thursday Night Members Memo
Wests Tigers Attack (again)
We’ve been here a few times already this season, but it’s the unknowns in rugby league that I often find most interesting. So far to start the 2023 NRL season, the Wests Tigers attack and what they’re trying to do with it, is one of those unknowns.
One thing we do know: Tigers like to offload.
They lead the NRL in offloads per game and it’s translating into a respectable 1,768 running metres per game up from 1,434 last season. There are positives to Wests’ high-offload attack – in yardage…
They’re moving the opposition around the field and making the most of the second phase. Whether it’s to take easy metres or scramble the defensive line to create short-side opportunities, there is a method to the madness. However, their good ball attack is poor.
Rugby League Eye Test has put together some numbers that I’ll poach for now but you should click through to this link and drop your email address in the box to have his posts delivered to your inbox.
Two in particular that best highlight how much the Tigers are struggling to attack close to the line:
– Wests are 2nd in the NRL in average play-the-balls inside the opposition 20-metre line at 32.2 per game
– Wests lead the NRL in percentage of their total play-the-balls inside the opposition 20-metre line at 22.4%
Basically, no team spends more of their time with the ball attacking close to the opposition line than the Tigers. Right now, they’re dead last in scoring at only 15 points per game.
The problem seems to be the lack of adjustment up the field. The Tigers are having success in yardage. It’s not an area they’ve performed particularly well in recent years, and despite what the 0-6 record suggests, the pack is doing its job to put the attacking players in positions to produce points. That offload-heavy and lateral style doesn’t work so well close to the line, though.
A good defence works hard to get off their line. Ideally, they’re getting up past the play-the-ball and close to the ten-metre line as the attacking team shifts the ball. For the Tigers, those wide-ranging shifts that are proving to be so successful when the defence is forced back ten metres isn’t so effective when they can move up off the goal line and into their face early.
There are too many to chose from, but this set from Round 6 sums things up.
It starts with a mid-field scrum 15 metres from the goal line – perfect. Adam Doueihi takes possession flat and look to create something with his running game – not a bad option to start a set. Settling to the middle as they tend to do, Wests are now looking to throw something at the defence.
Luke Brooks quickly fires the ball wide without tying up the three defenders in the middle. At the same time, the edge defence is able to quickly push up off their line to close down the space. Doueihi is already very deep out the back of the block and his decoy outside is ineffective under pressure. Meanwhile, Charlie Staines never looks like getting to a dangerous speed out the back.
Doueihi is caught five metres behind the original play-the-ball with the defence untested now three tackles into the set.
John Bateman this time settles to the middle of the field as the Tigers shape up on the left edge.
It’s more of the same.
Brooks’ catch and pass doesn’t stress the defence in the slightest, the Parramatta outside backs move up off the line with little concern for their inside, and while Staines’ pass isn’t good enough this time, the defence is up and across to cover the shift even if it was.
Most of the numbers finished in Wests’ favour in Round 6.
When you win the yardage battle by over 500 metres, finish with 19 more play-the-balls inside the opposition 20 metre line, play with 57% possession and break the line six times, you should be winning.
Winning comfortably, even.
However, the Tigers let themselves down in good ball. It’s where they most need to improve if they’re to wrestle this NRL season away from disaster.
Up against the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles this week, the Tigers profile well to be in a position to win again. Manly defend fairly passive. Daly Cherry-Evans is a good defender in that he sticks to tackles relatively well, but he’s there to be caught out on short sides and has a tendency to turn in on lead runners too often. With Wests offloads creating short side raids and the threat of Isaiah Papali’i targeting Cherry-Evans’ inside shoulder, the Tigers can cause an upset this week.
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Garrick Roaming?
Reuben Garrick passed the ball from dummy half on 5th tackle from the right edge numbers early on in Round 6.
As a left winger, that’s a strange place for Garrick to be.
Even if he adopted a bit of a Joey Manu or Josh Addo-Carr roaming role from the edge, providing dummy half service on the last from the opposite edge is unusual.
Rewinding it back on review, Garrick came in a long way off his wing to take a tough carry on 2nd tackle. As Tom Trbojevic stepped up to take the next one-off the ruck, Garrick followed him in.
Garrick is looking to attack the short side here. Whether it’s a bit of an eyes up play or that he knows the ball won’t be finding its way to the left wing with Trbojevic playing the ball is a mystery. Nonetheless, Lachlan Croker doesn’t give up the ball, takes the tackle, and there’s Garrick at dummy half.
Given the state of the game, the dominance of the Panthers, and the fact Garrick only played 27 minutes before leaving the field after a head knock, it was difficult to determine whether or not this roaming set was by design or a one-off.
There was talk about Garrick wanting a larger role in the Sea Eagles attack in 2023. Perhaps a roaming role is part of that?
Bulldogs jersey swap
6. Kyle Flanagan
7. Matt Burton
These moves always interest me.
Kyle Flanagan profiles as a traditional halfback while Matt Burton carries all of the traits you and in a five-eighth. The team is playing under a new coach and system and been decimated by injuries, but switching the jersey numbers of their two halves is the major change this week.
It’s only a number on the back of a jersey, but coaches adopt the approach of swapping six and sevens too often for it not to be something.
Phil Gould wouldn’t elaborate on the change:
“I’m sure the coach will explain at the appropriate time. But it was a deliberate move and they have a reason.”
I’ll be keeping an eye out for what that reason might be on Saturday.
Following up on Fifita
I touched on David Fifita and how his game has changed last week. He’s no longer just a tackle breaker and try scorer. The backrower is doing more of the little things and setting up those around him this year.
He had a few interesting quotes for Dan Talintyre at NRL.com this week:
“My team and I know what I’m doing [this year]. I’m doing things differently. I’ve done that and I’m continuing to do that. It’s only going to better myself and all the boys.”
“That [scoring tries] isn’t my mindset anymore.”
“I’m still going out there looking for a try, but my mindset has changed. It’s about doing the little things for the team and bettering myself each week.”
How his game develops will be a focus all season.
Following up on Haas
One thing I failed to mention last week: Payne Haas is offloading the ball at will.
There is a good chance that Haas will have recorded more offloads in eight games this season than he did in 20 last season by the end of Round 8.
He entered the NRL as one of the best ball-carriers in the competition from day one. Now he’s added more of an offload, and he’s letting go of them all the way up the field.
This sequence in Round 4 is a good example of how much he can scramble the defensive line with one carry and offload.
His motor and speed allowed him to get back in position to carry the ball straight after the offlad and throw another one, too.
He’s must-watch every week, but his offloads are the focus on Friday night.
Other Quick NRL Notes
– I did have a note to keep an eye on Jason Tauamalolo running a few wider lines this week, but he’s now out for 4-6 weeks…
– It’s one of the great quotes from Nick Campton on the NRL Boom Rookies Podcast: “If Ben Hunt carries the Dragons to a win, they win. If he doesn’t, they don’t.”
– Talatau Amone missed eight tackles last week – not ideal. He missed only 3.7 per game in 2022 but is averaging over five missed tackles through three games of the 2023 NRL season. The Roosters will have circled him as a target on ANZAC Day.
– Tom Ale is making a nice impact off the bench for the Warriors this season. He carries the ball hard and fast and makes the most of fairly limited minutes. He’s also made 104 tackles without missing one…
– We’ve got Lachlan Baxer providing some SuperCoach content with a Rugby League Writers feel to it this season. He covered the Sydney Roosters struggles with the ball to start the year this week. Trent Robinson has responded to the disappointing start by dropping Sam Walker. I’m not normally a big fan of dropping young halves when the whole team is struggling around them, but when the alternative is Joey Manu…
That will be an obvious talking point this week. The Roosters kicking game is a potential issue, though.
– Jahream Bula has been named to make his NRL debut at fullback for the Tigers this week. I’ve seen him play come Cup footy this year and he definitely has the tools to succeed in first grade. It’s a surprise to see him make the leap this quick, though. I’m rooting for him.