Join us each week as we take a RLW lens to NRL SuperCoach, including a Player in Focus, our Tradeoff of the Week, POD Hits & Misses and more.
Players in Focus: James Tedesco & Joseph Manu
The two biggest drops in value for the 2023 NRL SuperCoach season so far both belong to the Sydney Roosters; James Tedesco (-$232,000) and Joseph Manu (-$177,700). The worst scoring SuperCoach team overall is also the Roosters, averaging over 200 points less per game than the first place South Sydney Rabbitohs. Historically, the Roosters are one of the most prolific scorers but their current style of play this season has severely stunted scoring as they once again ease into the season, Trent Robinson-style.
SuperCoach is heavily skewed towards attacking stats and across the majority of attacking indicators the Roosters as a whole are performing well below their 2022 averages.
The absence of Sitili Tupouniua and Angus Crichton has had a huge impact on the attacking shape of the Roosters. Their quick play the balls and dangerous line running abilities have been sorely missed. An elite backline has struggled to get the ball in broken play or against a retreating defensive line, where Manu and Tedesco are able to capitalise and rack up the line breaks, tackles breaks or try involvements.
This week is a very different prospect. Robinson has wielded the axe and Sam Walker will be spending at least one week in reserve grade. Be warned though – I don’t think the Manu to five eighth move will be a long-term one. The reasoning is that his run-first nature restricts the ball playing that the Roosters need to bring their numerous weapons into the game, and I worry where the directional kicking will come from when patience and game management is required.
The return of their first-team backrowers will provide some much needed impact. Match fitness will be lacking for Tupouniua and Crichton and a slow ease back into the side is to be expected, but the devastation they can cause on the edge can produce the forward momentum and ruck speed that the Roosters are desperately missing.
So what does this mean for the trade credentials of these bottom dollar SuperCoach guns?
The Roosters do not play R13 or R19 during the bye period but they are not safely within the top four either, where resting of their stars following Origin games is more common. During this period only three of the nine games are against current top eight sides and the strength of the first-team will only improve as injured players return and gain match fitness.
Tradeoff of the Week
Joseph Manu – He is the trickiest to place because of the recent positional move. At five eighth he is a must have; he almost scored a double ton against the Dragons last time he was there. His ball running is elite and his scoring isn’t negatively impacted if he doesn’t pass and just scores himself. At centre, his stocks wane significantly. The Roosters have attacked both sides of the field in 2023 and while the strength of the pack will improve, it can be hard to capitalise on this whilst out in the centres. Safe from Origin and a chance of benefitting if Tedesco is rested, there is definite upside for Manu.
James Tedesco – The much safer option in a far more friendly SuperCoach scoring position. The biggest risk to Tedesco would be Manu spending weeks at five eighth. If Manu begins to dominate the attack, the sweeping plays to either side of the field and the tip on try- and line break assists that Tedesco thrives on will dry up. The returning second rowers and subsequent increase in offloads and ruck speed plays right into Tedesco’s game as his support play and repeat efforts are second to none. Reece Walsh has had an outstanding start to the season but his draw has been extremely soft and that changes dramatically running into the bye period. Trading a top dollar Walsh to Tedesco and pocketing $200k would have been a dream at the start of the season and is a trade I am seriously considering.
Hits and Misses
Hits: My top five POD targets for the next few weeks.
Rueben Garrick – Don’t be scared off by a breakeven of 127. Against a leaky Tigers outfit with yet another change to their spine, there is every chance Garrick could make money this week. A goal kicker, playing R13, dual position and outside Turbo (who looked to be moving more freely) is all you need to know.
Tohu Harris – FRF has been a very difficult position this year and popular options such as Christian Welch, Joseph Tapine and Stefano Utoikamanu have all got back-to-back byes that are leaving teams still struggling with Davvy Moale and Franklin Pele short. Harris has an elite work rate and solid base scoring is a lock for the Warriors captain. A four forward bench may impact his minutes slightly but as the leader of this pack he will always spend enough time on the field to provide big scores. Dual position is helpful, and he won’t be impacted by Origin.
Ryan Matterson – If it hadn’t been for his suspension to start the year, Matterson’s ownership would be much higher. Picking up where left off in 2022, an average of 76.3 and an improving draw for the Eels makes for a very tempting trade in target. The bye coverage is great and he is a proven gun. I will be watching nervously for the next few weeks before I can afford him because the CTW options have such high upside I think they take priority.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira – The cash cow is fattened. A perfect trade out option this week. Whilst he could score well against the Dolphins, there are so many elite options at bottom dollar ready to bring in.
Reuben Cotter – I preface this with my Cowboys fan bias BUT I like a cheap Cotter and I think he is being slept on. A problem position as discussed above, Cotter could be the perfect player to see you through to R13 where Origin will likely claim him. A small bench has once again been picked by Todd Payten, and a long-term injury to Jason Taumalolo coupled with a desperate Cowboys side should see Cotter play good minutes. Known for his work rate, his SuperCoach scoring floor is great and he can find the try line. Their draw is decent and at such a cheap price, Cotter may be an easier get for coaches looking to shore up their front row when they can’t afford the guns.
Misses: My top five avoids.
Junior Tupou – This trade screams of a quick cash grab and not one that will earn enough to be worthwhile. The Tigers are struggling but yet another new fullback this week leaves us with so many questions. How Jahream Bula impacts Tupou’s scoring is unknown. At an awkward price, Tupou is one to let slide.
Will Penisini – I love watching Penisini and his line running and support play this year has been fantastic. A low breakeven is tempting but the upside in a stacked position is just not there to justify the trade. Safe from Origin and bye rounds, the attraction is obvious but one to target closer to that period.
Max King – One of the shining lights in a decimated Bulldogs pack, King has averaged 64.4 in a fantastic start to the season. There isn’t anything I don’t like about King specifically. He is playing great minutes, enjoys a solid base, has no direct competition for his spot in the starting pack and is dual position. It is just the other options available. By spending $5k less, you can have a Tohu Harris who will provide bye coverage and is showing glimpses of attacking upside (try assist last week). King is not a bad option, just not the best.
Jacob Host – Heavily inflated by attacking stats and with a low base in such a high scoring SuperCoach position, Host has a few red flags. The Rabbitohs have had two soft games and performed as we expected but it firms up again over the next few weeks as they face the Panthers, Broncos and Storm. Last year he averaged 32.1 and he will regress from his current 47.5. The week to jump on him for a cash grab was last round and most of his value is now gone.
Sunia Turuva – Unless you’re upgrading to Manu or Garrick, I don’t understand trading out Turuva. His last two weeks have been quiet but they have been against teams with weak left edges that the Panthers exploited. Turuva will see more attacking opportunity as the season progresses and he will get the tries we know he can.
Written by Lachlan Baxter for Rugby League Writers