The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 7 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Thursday Night Members Memo
Well, who saw Dolphins v South Sydney Rabbitohs being this appealing in Round 7? Sure, there’s the Wayne Bennett element. He didn’t leave there with any bad blood, though. Instead, it’s what might happen on the field that has this Thursday Night Footy fixture as one to watch.
The two sides match up surprisingly well. Bennett’s Dolphins are carving out a reputation as a grinding team. They’re not the flashiest and probably won’t ever be this season. However, they’re prepared to get into the grind and give themselves a chance to win the game late. In classic Bennett style, they don’t make a lot of errors. They make the fewest in the NRL, and with the Cowboys managing to go with the Dolphins in almost every major statistic last week, their 13 errors to the Dolphins’ 6 proved to be the difference. So far, the grinding and low-risk approach is proving to be successful.
Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs have performed a 180-degree spin on their typical approach. Regarded as one of the best attacking teams in the NRL across the last few seasons, Souths ranked 16th in the competition before hanging 50 on the Bulldogs last week. Putting the attack aside for a few weeks, they defended at a premiership-contending level and have set themselves up to be one of the best defensive teams in the competition this year. Defence wins premierships, and it’s where they’ve not quite been up to standard while flirting with the Provan-Summons Trophy across the last five seasons.
Many are waiting for the Dolphins to start crumbling, but they keep bouncing back. Bennett does that to a team. While slow to start, it looks as though the Rabbitohs have clicked into gear and can start climbing the NRL ladder. According to Stats Insider’s Schedule Difficulty model, the Bunnies have the third-easiest remaining draw in the NRL.
4G coverage in Peaceful Bay, Western Australia dependent, I’m looking forward to this one.
Here we are again…
We did all of this last season, but Jason Taumalolo’s minutes and production are again a talking point. As the North Queensland Cowboys struggle for results, the big Tongan is going to be scrutinised.
The Cowboys finished the 2022 NRL season third in yardage at 1,704 running metres per game. They built an identity around setting up the game early to win it late by running their opposition into the ground for 80 minutes. Through six rounds of this season, however, the Cowboys rank 12th in the NRL in yardage. They’re struggling to get up the field and build the sort of pressure that translated into wins so often in 2022.
Taumalolo’s name has popped up. His minutes, in particular, often rate a mention. He’s again spending less time on the field than he did the season prior to average only 52.8 minutes per game. His production is about the same as it was in 2022 while playing seven more minutes per game, though.
Todd Payten is getting the same out of Taumalolo in fewer minutes on the field, and it makes sense to continue doing so. Players can decline quickly in the middle of the field and the Cowboys want to get the most out of the four years still remaining on Taumalolo’s contract after this season.
Still, it’s the time he’s off the field that is worth looking into in the coming weeks. While Taumalolo might be just as productive in his 52.8 minutes, how are the Cowboys coping without him? Are they giving up a lot more through the middle for a larger chunk of the game, and is it worth it for Taumalolo to get that little bit extra rest?
Now another big unit…
Fififa is firing without scoring
Outside of Tom Trbojevic, no player benefited more from the 2021 Fatigue Season than David Fifita.
Scoring 17 tries, recording 22 line breaks, 44 offloads and a monster 156 tackle breaks to go with 125 running metres per game, Fifita’s size and strength proved too much for tired defenders as he single-handedly dragged the Titans to 8th on the NRL ladder and a pass away from Week 2 of the Finals.
Despite changes to the rules and adjustments by opposition coaches, the Titans sent out a similar plan in 2022. It didn’t prove nearly as successful and the ‘he’s lazy’ narrative reached fever pitch once again.
It’s all different in 2023 as Fifita plays out one of the best seasons of his career so far, all without scoring a try.
Fifita recorded eight try assists throughout the first 84 games of his NRL career. Through five this season, the 23-year-old already has three including this beauty to Alofiana Khan-Pereira in Round 4.
It’s a shape we’ve talked about a lot here at RLW and one I love seeing Fifita run as a ballplaying option. The big fella running downhill with the ball in two hands like that is a scary thought for any winger.
Fifita is always going to be tough to handle when he carries the ball, but popping up in spots where he’s also more of a passing threat has translated into a career-high 161 running metres per game.
He’s not featuring on the highlight reels as he has done in the past, but this is one of the more interesting Fifita seasons I’ve covered and one that may prove more beneficial to the Titans than the 17 tries he scored in 2021.
Less Fifita can be more for the Titans when he is productive in a number of different roles. As good as the ‘give it to David’ approach can be, a lot needs to go right to get him into positions to score first. We’ve seen him handle the ball and influence the team all the way up the field this season. He’s being used as more than just a battering ram and the Titans look a lot better for it.
There is still a lot more growth in Fifita and the way the Titans use him. It’s good to see it all finally coming together in a sustainable way.
I hadn’t planned this, but Round 7 is Big Man Szn. Another big unit…
Haas in good ball
Payne Haas is a freak.
His footwork is outrageous for somebody his size. His acceleration off the mark and top speed don’t make sense. Up until this season, most of his best work has come in yardage to the tune of 160-190 running metres per game. However, it looks as though the big unit is looking to use his physical gifts more often close to the line in 2023.
Haas did this in Round 5:
In Round 6, we saw him pop up in a few more dangerous spots.
He first picked Zac Woolford out in the line and looked to hit and spin his way through the smaller hooker. Knowing that he’s unlikely to make a strong enough tackle to stop Haas from crashing over, Woolford takes his only option and intercepts the pass.
Haas and Cory Paix didn’t get it right this time, but as defence’s spread on the line to tackle the threat of the Broncos out wide, look for these two to try this one on again soon.
I’ve highlighted the work of Haas and Patrick Carrigan further up the field already. Linking up closer to the line on this one, Carrigan almost sends Haas over it after digging into the line and isolating his big prop onto a halfback.
Haas has scored eight tries in 87 NRL matches so far in his career. That’s a pretty good strike rate for a prop. Still, it feels as though he’s just getting started as an attacking threat close to the line.
He scored four tries in 21 games throughout the 2019 season. With one already this year, I’m backing him in to set a new career-high for meat pies in 2023.
Hughes to run riot?
I covered the Penrith Panthers on Monday and their game plan to target the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles left edge defence.
“Edwards’ name fills the score sheet and Cleary is credited with putting the pieces together, but this is a fine example of a cohesive team playing to a plan and executing to perfection.” – How the Penrith Panthers pulled the Sea Eagles apart
This week, it’s the Melbourne Storm’s turn.
If there is one team in the NRL that might be able to put a plan together and execute it like the Panthers, it’s the Storm.
Cleary’s running game was a big part of Penrith’s approach. They targeted the space between the three and four-in defenders and found success with Cleary both running and passing. It started with the threat of the run, though. Jahrome Hughes is the best running halfback in the NRL…
Cameron Munster has been named at fullback with Jonah Pezet in the halves. Pezet has already shown a willingness to take the line on early in his NRL career. Meanwhile, the prospect of Munster popping up across the park will be keeping Seibold up at night.
Having seen what the Panthers did in Round 6 and with the tools at their disposal, I expect to see Hughes feature heavily on Friday night. Like Cleary, early carries into the line can set up those outside Hughes later in the game if the Kiwi international doesn’t pile up the points himself.
Injury Issues
Unfortunately, Round 7 is one filled with injury replacements.
Jayden Brailey will miss the rest of the 2023 NRL season after suffering another ACL injury last week. Terrible news for a young bloke that just can’t stay on the field, but when he does, the Knights look a different team. Adam O’Brien has a few options, but none particularly appealing.
The North Queensland Cowboys will also be without Griffin Neame this week.
Neame has been fantastic for his 99 running metres per game. Starting, off the bench, in the middle or on the edge, he’d become a key contributor to Todd Payten’s side to start the season.
Te Maire Martin and Wayde Egan will miss time for the New Zealand Warriors but we have a fair idea of how they will go without them.
James Fisher-Harris is a massive out for the Penrith Panthers and one they’ve not often had to deal with. He’s played 25, 24, 23, 24 and 23 games across the last five seasons.
Among others, how teams fill the void and handle the losses – particularly those covering long-term injuries – is something to keep an eye on this week. Here’s hoping we’re not doing the same for Round 8…
Other Quick NRL Notes
– Oscar put together a nice breakdown of Isaiah Katoa’s coming-of-age performance in Round 6. As the Facebook commenters were quick to point out on an article specifically about Katoa, Kodi Nikorima played well, too. So, I’ll be paying closer attention to Nikorima on Thursday night.
– Another Dolphin: JJ Collins. He’s not played NRL footy since 2019 but the 27-year-old earned his place in the grade by dominating for the Tweed Seagulls last year. A strong ball carrier with quick feet, I’m excited to see him back out there.
– The Campbell Graham for State of Origin hype train is gaining speed. For those of you that have been here a while, you’ll have been sitting with us in the station for a year or two already.
– Cameron Munster has been named at fullback with Jonah Pezet and Jahrome Hughes in the halves for this week. It’s a move plenty of people have talked about but one that isn’t very on-brand for Craig Bellamy. He doesn’t often throw a young fella out to the wolves and is only doing so because Nick Meaney suffered delayed symptoms following a head knock in Round 6. Still, all things going well, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see this spine stick through to Ryan Papenhuyzen’s return.
– The Gold Coast Titans have made a bit of a splash in the market over the last couple of weeks. Kruise Lemming and Thomas Mikaele have both been named for Saturday.
– I’m a little bit concerned for Will Penisini and the Eels right edge defence. It became the avenue for the Wests Tigers’ comeback last week. Even without Josh Addo-Carr, it’s where the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs are most likely to score their points.