The Rugby League Writers NRL & NRLW Finals Preview Newsletter is here to get you ready for the upcoming weekend action.
NRL Preliminary Final Preview
Quintessential Penrith Panthers
It starts with a fairly lacklustre Nathan Cleary grubber. He’s happy to roll it back there and trust the defence will earn him another crack soon enough, though. There is no pushing the envelope and risking a seven-tackle set. Instead, he forces the Storm to travel 90 metres if they’re to score.
After Grant Anderson is smothered on the kick return, James Fisher-Harris is involved in the next tackle, too. Will Warbrick does his best to start the Storm exit set. It’s a strong carry but not one that generates the momentum needed to start turning the Panthers around. Lindsay Smith’s linespeed from A forces Warbrick to step back inside for Fisher-Harris to finish it off.
Few players in the NRL are better at carting the ball up, skittling defenders and generating ruck speed than Nelson Asofa-Solomona – not here. Again it’s the linespeed from marker making the difference. This time it’s Scott Sorensen, and you’ll see Fisher-Harris make his third consecutive tackle. His shot from the side and how tight he keeps to Asofa-Solomona is what wins Penrith the tackle. The Storm are lost as Johan Pezet is forced into a tough carry.
Christian Welch looks to get them out of trouble but there is Fisher-Harris again. As soon as Welch steps off his right foot, the Panthers prop puts his foot down and charges at his man. Just like that, Cameron Munster is kicking from 35 metres off his own line.
Edwards is an expert at picking up the easy metres. Where some fullbacks might jog up towards the line looking for a target, Edwards does it at speed before Brian To’o carries on the back of it. Where Edwards swerves to evade strong tackles, To’o takes them head-on and finds his front for a quick play-the-ball more often than not.
As Sunia Turuva takes possession, you can see Fisher-Harris just coming back into frame on halfway. He has only needed to travel back ten metres from where he stood as Munster kicked the ball. That right there is where Fisher-Harris and the Panthers pack find their energy to do it all again in defence. He’s even rested and ready enough to take a carry himself at this point.
Getting into attacking field position, the Panthers play a bit of footy. They explore down the edge through Cleary, who pokes his head through the line. They’re throwing jabs with these actions, not haymakers hoping to turn a visit into the opposition half into points every time. At worst, Cleary has provided Jarome Luai with the time to hang one up and land it one metre off the Storm line.
You’ll never guess who was there to make the first tackle of Melbourne’s exit set…
Rinse and repeat until the opposition can’t go any longer.
Check the full Panthers v Storm Preliminary Final preview HERE.
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NRLW Deciding Factors
Sunday (2:05pm) – Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos
The Newcastle Knights have done all the hard work to claim the 2023 NRLW minor premiership at the finish line. A big win over the Sydney Roosters in Round 8 ended up the difference and it sees the Knights host the resurgent Broncos in the first preliminary final on Sunday afternoon.
Slow to start the year, this Knights squad has developed combinations across the park as the season’s gone on. UK-import Georgia Roche has found her feet nicely and is complementing a spine that scores the third-most points per game in the NRLW on average. She’s not a highlight reel player like Jesse Southwell but has struck up a likely partnership with backrower Yasmin Clydesdale in good-ball.
I’m looking at Roche for a different reason in this one, though.
Her ability to engage a specific defender in the line and straighten the attack is key to unlocking Tamika Upton down that left edge. This action from earlier in the season is a good example.
Brisbane’s right edge unit is positioned well here but they’re stripped by the involvement of Roche. With the ball out in front and a subtle change in tempo, Roche gets at the inside shoulder of the three-in defender to create the overlap. She makes it look simple but these actions are the signs of a quality playmaker. A clean pass completes Roche’s work to get Upton into the backfield.
On the other side of the field, Upton’s combination with Southwell has been a feature of the Knights 2023 NRLW season.
Upton spends most of her time down that edge and can pull apart the defence in a variety of ways. With Brisbane’s Mele Hufanga still learning her trade in defence on that side of the field, both Tarsha and I think it’s an area the Knights will target on Sunday; “Mele (Hufanga) is still learning in defence and I think Upton can make a target of her in this one”
I’m tipping Upton can stress Hufanga without even touching the ball. Her gravity as a ball carrier demands attention from the defence and Southwell has used her as a decoy on that right edge this year to good effect.
This would be very, very difficult to defend. You can’t leave Upton with too much space but you can’t overcommit on her, either. Forcing Hufanga to make these decisions under pressure and fatigue on Sunday can be a feature of the Knights attack.
Overall, the beauty of Newcastle’s gameplan for this one is in it’s simplicity. The Knights have learned that if they stay in the grind and complete their sets, Upton can turn their field position into points from there.
The involvements of their back five are key to this. As Tarsha pointed out, “the Knights have been great at using their back five in yardage and then it’s play time for Upton to pick her moments.” With momentum generated on the kick returns early in a set, Roche and Southwell are earning multiple opportunities to combine with their star fullback down the other end of the field.
For the Broncos, they’re “stinging because they didn’t play finals last year and have hit form at the right time of the season.” They follow a similar theme to the Knights in attack, in the sense that they also know what works for them this season.
We’re going all the way back to NRLW Round 3 for this one, when Mele Hufanga scored four tries and catapulted the Broncos into premiership contention.
A few of those tries came on the back of some ruck speed or second-phase play – whenever Brisbane had North Queensland on the ropes, they’d swing it to Hufanga to throw the final punch.
Her fourth try in that game was the most promising, though.
I wrote back in Round 3 that we should be seeing Hufanga in this shape almost every week, and for the most part we have. As Tarsha said, “she’s impossible to stop from 10 metres out” and has scored another three or four with this shape in games since.
As the season’s gone on, the Broncos have also learned to use their strike weapon as a decoy. Tarsha pointed out that Hufanga is an imposing figure close to the line and can put the defence under pressure without even touching the ball.
“I’m loving the variety (down the Broncos left edge). They’re using Hufanga a bit better in the back end of the season; she compresses the defence and the spaces are opening up for Julia Robinson.”
This pass option from Hayley Maddick highlights exactly that:
While the Knights spread their points evenly across the park, the Broncos clearly favour their left edge. They’ve scored 24 tries down that side of the field with the other 23 coming between the left upright and the right corner post.
If Newcastle can contain Hufanga and Gayle Broughton on that left edge, the Broncos will be forced to look elsewhere for points. Destiny Brill can ask some questions around the ruck and Shenae Ciesiolka is an appealing option on the far side of the field, but it will mean the Knights have forced Brisbane into their Plan B.
For me, that’s the biggest advantage Newcastle have in this one.
They’re happy to score from anywhere on the field and can win this game by a try or two with their defence. If Brisbane take an early lead though, Ali Brigginshaw has the composure and the kicking game to defend that lead to the fulltime siren: “if the Knights are too complacent or are slow to start, the Broncos can take an early lead and keep the foot on the throat.”
This is going to be a cracker.
Find the Deciding Factors for NRLW Roosters v Titans HERE.