The Penrith Panthers take on the Melbourne Storm for a spot in the NRL Grand Final on Friday night. While the Storm have been one of the most consistent teams over the last decade, few have managed to consistently trouble the Panthers in recent years.
Panthers v Storm Preliminary Final Preview
The Melbourne Storm face the monumental task of beating the Penrith Panthers in a Preliminary Final this week.
While the Storm have been one of the most consistent teams in the NRL for well over a decade, the Panthers of the last three years will go down as one of the best teams in the history of the competition. They’re a machine and one very few think can be stopped on their way to a third consecutive premiership.
Every offseason Ivan Cleary has lost key contributors. Every offseason, he’s been able to train up the new recruits and install them within a relatively simple but dominant system. The fact we have a fairly good idea of what is coming arguably adds to the argument of this period being one of the finest in rugby league history.
I looked at Harry Grant’s ability to break the game open on Monday. He’s a player Cleary and the Panthers will have no doubt spent a lot of time scheming for throughout the week. Given his ability to both act as a trigger to scoring actions or provide the finishing touch, if you contain Grant and limit his opportunities to attack, you go a long way to containing the Storm.
For the Storm, I’m guessing Craig Bellamy has put his time into containing the Panthers back five. They’re a dominant unit in yardage for the Panthers to lead the NRL at 1,605 metres per game per Fox Sports Lab. Dylan Edwards takes any metres the kick chase will give him before often popping up for another carry in the set as Penrith work out of their own end. Depending on which side of the field Edwards takes the tackle, the winger and centre chime in as the winger from the far side makes his way over to play his part.
The work of the Panthers back-five allows the middle forwards to focus their energy in defence. Per Fox Sports Lab, Cleary’s side concedes the fewest metres at 1,291 per game.
There are countless examples of the Panthers turning the screws, pinning a team in their own end and slowly winning the territory battle throughout the 2023 NRL season. Their patience on both sides of the ball is second to none, and trying to reel them in after building a lead is nearly impossible with the consistency they play with across 80 minutes.
So, with all of that in mind, I want to revisit a set late in Penrith’s 26-6 win over Melbourne back in Round 23. Most teams would phone in the remainder of the game. The line speed wouldn’t be quite so fast, the tackles not nearly as hard and the set structure far from defined. Penrith, on the other hand, just keep doing what they do, and it paints the perfect picture of what they’ll be trying to do over the next two weeks.
Quintessential Penrith Panthers
It starts with a fairly lacklustre Nathan Cleary grubber. He’s happy to roll it back there and trust the defence will earn him another crack soon enough, though. There is no pushing the envelope and risking a seven-tackle set. Instead, he forces the Storm to travel 90 metres if they’re to score.
After Grant Anderson is smothered on the kick return, James Fisher-Harris is involved in the next tackle, too. Will Warbrick does his best to start the Storm exit set. It’s a strong carry but not one that generates the momentum needed to start turning the Panthers around. Lindsay Smith’s linespeed from A forces Warbrick to step back inside for Fisher-Harris to finish it off.
Few players in the NRL are better at carting the ball up, skittling defenders and generating ruck speed than Nelson Asofa-Solomona – not here. Again it’s the linespeed from marker making the difference. This time it’s Scott Sorensen, and you’ll see Fisher-Harris make his third consecutive tackle. His shot from the side and how tight he keeps to Asofa-Solomona is what wins Penrith the tackle. The Storm are lost as Johan Pezet is forced into a tough carry.
Christian Welch looks to get them out of trouble but there is Fisher-Harris again. As soon as Welch steps off his right foot, the Panthers prop puts his foot down and charges at his man. Just like that, Cameron Munster is kicking from 35 metres off his own line.
Edwards is an expert at picking up the easy metres. Where some fullbacks might jog up towards the line looking for a target, Edwards does it at speed before Brian To’o carries on the back of it. Where Edwards swerves to evade strong tackles, To’o takes them head-on and finds his front for a quick play-the-ball more often than not.
As Sunia Turuva takes possession, you can see Fisher-Harris just coming back into frame on halfway. He has only needed to travel back ten metres from where he stood as Munster kicked the ball. That right there is where Fisher-Harris and the Panthers pack find their energy to do it all again in defence. He’s even rested and ready enough to take a carry himself at this point.
Getting into attacking field position, the Panthers play a bit of footy. They explore down the edge through Cleary, who pokes his head through the line. They’re throwing jabs with these actions, not haymakers hoping to turn a visit into the opposition half into points every time. At worst, Cleary has provided Jarome Luai with the time to hang one up and land it one metre off the Storm line.
You’ll never guess who was there to make the first tackle of Melbourne’s exit set…
Rinse and repeat until the opposition can’t go any longer.
So, what can the Melbourne Storm do?
I don’t really know…
Does anybody in the NRL?
The Parramatta Eels have had the most consistent success against the Panthers in recent years, and their change of direction in attack likely plays a part. So does Mitchell Moses’ monster boot that can push Edwards and company further back than most teams.
It will come down to maintaining possession and holding up in defence for the Storm. Three of the four tries they conceded in Round 23 came directly after an error or penalty. Once playing with a lead, the Panthers defence doesn’t often give it up. Melbourne needs to be within striking distance to give their matchwinners a chance to do just that late in the piece. There is a bit of a Queensland Maroons game plan feel to it, really. Embrace the grind and do the work early for the likes of Grant, Munster and Jahrome Hughes to win it late.
Preliminary Final Prediction
Plan for the Panthers all you like. Watch as many of the sets above as possible. It doesn’t seem to matter what any team does at the moment.
The Panthers don’t look quite so unbeatable this year, which will give the Storm faithful some hope. They can somewhat struggle for points if Nathan Cleary is put under pressure and forced to get more creative. Who does that for the Storm, though? Welch will pressure him whenever he is on the field, but there will be roughly 35 minutes where he has more time on the ball and an easier path to the defender he’s targeting.
Leaving a few splinters on my bum, I need to say I wouldn’t be surprised if the Storm caused an upset. They’re one of the few teams that can strike against the best defensive team in the NRL at any moment. However, Penrith’s consistency, cohesion and finals footy game plan sees them go into Friday night as deserving favourites.
Panthers to win by single digits.