Recap the latest round of the 2023 NRL season with the Repeat Set as we break down some of the best plays from the weekend.
– Is it too little too late for the Roosters?
– Cowboys keep picking them out
– Getting back on the Lomax hype train
– She has to start…
– Offload Eels
– Remaining draw analysis
Is it too little too late for the Roosters?
The Sydney Roosters…
As Oscar mentioned before Round 21, it beggars belief that we’re here at this point of the season with this squad.
The Roosters have underperformed their preseason expectations. There is no doubting that, and I’d imagine the players and staff at the club feel the same way. However, everybody has been waiting for the uptick in form. The week it all comes together. I, personally, thought it might come ten weeks ago.
Did it come in Round 21? Is it too late to make the finals?
Trent Robinson’s side cleared their season average in scoring just 24 minutes into their 36-18 win over the Gold Coast Titans on Saturday afternoon. Sure, the 16.4 points per game is shockingly low and the Titans are one of the worst defensive teams in the NRL, but you have to start somewhere.
It started with Tedesco.
The Roosters fullback finished up with a try, two try assists, four tackle breaks, two offloads and 220 running metres. His first two try involvements of the afternoon highlighted what the Roosters can look like at their best if they can bottle this form for the remainder of the regular season.
They can play both sides from the middle of the field in good ball. While I harp on about their short side ability (more on that soon), their good ball attack works best from the middle. They have attacking talent across the park and the opposition fullback is under pressure to get his numbers exactly right. Even when he does, it’s still difficult to stop the Roosters on a roll.
Here, Nathan Brown plays the Roosters to the middle of the field before the Roosters stack their left edge.
Sandon Smith’s role here is subtle but so important. He’s moving towards the B defender before catching the ball. By engaging the right defender he opens up the right holes for Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Egan Butcher to run through, turning defenders and creating space.
Smith puts his man on the back foot forcing Klese Haas to bite on Waerea-Hargreaves’ lead line. With Haas unable to recover in time to help Tanah Boyd, Tedesco engages the halfback to create a three-v-two scenario and plays Butcher through the gap to score.
The Roosters again played to their points and towards another strength on the very next set.
A good kickoff pins the Chooks deep in the corner but three strong carries put them 30 metres up the field with decent ruck speed.
Now comes the shift to stress the defensive line and move the middles. Moeaki Fotuaika is the key here. He starts this shift on the left side of the field ready to defend another one-out carry from the ruck but ends up defending at A on the short side down the right edge.
While Luke Keary surrenders in the tackle to avoid a possible obstruction, the Roosters have manufactured the defensive line they want.
Brandon Smith shapes back to the open side but ducks down the short side, engaging Boyd at second marker in the process. A gassed Fotuaika is left one-on-one with Tedesco who skips to his outside, creates another three-v-two, and again puts Butcher through the gap.
At their best, the Roosters have always been a high-risk and high-reward team. They pile up errors pushing the pass but connect on enough of them to pile up points. That hasn’t been the case this season and it just so happens that their nine errors in Round 21 is their second-fewest in a match this season.
They kept hold of the ball, played it slightly safer, and have perhaps played themselves into form.
Remaining Draw: @ Broncos, Sea Eagles, Dolphins, @ Eels, Wests Tigers, @ Rabbitohs
Currently 12th on the NRL ladder with eight wins, ten losses and their three byes already banked, the Roosters need to win five of their last six games to give themselves a chance at finals football. Given their -88 points differential, they might need to win all six if they can’t really thump one of their remaining opposition. It’s a big ask but not out of the question given the list running out for the Roosters every week.
We’re going to learn a lot in Round 22 when they take on the Brisbane Broncos at The Gabba. If the Roosters can maintain possession, continue to work towards their strengths around Tedesco and contain a firing Broncos attack, we can start to reconsider them as a potential finals side. Right now, it looks as though this recent uptick in form might be too little too late.
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Cowboys keep picking them out
Tackles attempted by opposition little men in recent games
Illias, 27: career-high
Wakeham, 28: second-most of his career
Munster, 32: season-high
Croker, 54: second-most of his career
We can now add Brendan Hands to the list after he made a career-high 51 tackles for the Parramatta Eels in Round 21.
The North Queensland Cowboys have a plan and continue to play towards it. While people often point out high tackle numbers as a reason to praise a player (which is often deserved), they’re making a lot of tackles for a reason.
Teams aren’t running at the likes of James Fisher-Harris 50 times if they can avoid it. A smaller defender like Hands, one that tackles low like Wakeham, or one that gives up a few metres post contact like Croker, however, are targets in the line.
Hit the little bloke to generate ruck speed, fire the ball wide, and throw some shape around weaker edge defenders.
It’s a simple action every team tries to do, but one the Cowboys are consistently executing better than anybody at the moment.
Getting back on the Lomax hype train
Zac Lomax is really good.
Give him the right coach – one that plays him on the correct side, for a start – and players around him, and Lomax can again be regarded as one of the best centres in the NRL.
He fell down the list throughout Anthony Griffin’s time at the St George Illawarra Dragons. Lomax fell so far that he spent time at New South Wales Cup level – without any work-ons from his coach, it’s worth mentioning.
Still, few in the game have the strength, footwork and skill to pull this off…
Lomax is lethal on the right edge while there is no single defender that can consistently stop Mikaele Ravalawa this close to the line. Put the pair in positions to isolate defenders and watch the points pile up.
Can Shane Flanagan be the man to manufacture those scenarios?
Given his history, it’s difficult to imagine Flanagan isn’t having some influence on the team list and game plan already. Getting Lomax back to his best and retaining Ben Hunt on that right side would go a long way to the Red V rising up the NRL ladder in his first season as head coach.
She has to start…
Offload Eels
We’ve mentioned the Parramatta Eels and offloads a lot in recent seasons. They’ve struggled to consistently find the right balance between firing the ball wide or generating a second phase with carting it up the middle and doing the hard yards first.
In Round 21, Brad Arthur’s side let go of 32 offloads.
32…
Scoring points hasn’t been a problem for the Eels this season. They’re second in the NRL in scoring at 25.8 points per game. So, why the sudden increase in offloads when they’re averaging an NRL-high 12.6 offloads per game already?
Unfortunately, we aren’t given the numbers on effective offloads and how many metres those offloads generate. Still, it’s something I’ll be keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.
The Eels are inside the Top 8 but face the hardest remaining schedule in the competition if they’re to stay there. Round 21 suggests they’re trying to stay there by running the opposition off the park when it’s in defence – conceding 21.2 points per game – that they need to improve if they’re to make a late run at the premiership.
Remaining NRL draw analysis
The NRL ladder is congested, the Ladder Predictor is in regular use, and we’re looking ahead to which games might have big implications over the remaining rounds of the season.
It’s now that Stats Insider’s Schedule Difficulty model becomes especially handy.
You can find the full table here, but in summary:
– The Eels have the hardest remaining draw in the NRL.
@ Storm, Dragons, @ Broncos, Roosters. @ Panthers, Bye
– The Warriors have the easiest remaining draw in the NRL.
Bye, @ Titans, @ Tigers (in NZ), Sea Eagles, Dragons, @ Dolphins
– Are we in for yet another encouraging end to a Bulldogs season? They have the second-easiest draw.
Dolphins, Bye, @ Knights, @ Raiders, Sea Eagles, @ Titans
– The Cowboys are sniffing around the Top 4 on the back of an inspired run of form, but face a tough draw if they’re to crack it.
@ Titans, Broncos, Bye, Sharks, @ Dolphins, @ Panthers
– The Rabbitohs have fallen out of the Top 8 but should be able to jump back in before the end of Round 27.
@ Tigers, Sharks, Dragons, @ Knights, Bye, Roosters
– The Sharks are slipping and it doesn’t get much easier to finish the season with the fifth-hardest remaining draw.
@ Panthers, @ Rabbitohs, Titans, @ Cowboys, @ Knights, Raiders