Heads In! NRL Round 21: Roosters execution + NRLW Notes & R21 Percentage Play

Heads In! NRL Round 21: Roosters execution + NRLW Notes & R21 Percentage Play


Roosters execution

After 20 rounds played, the Sydney Roosters rank a lowly 16th across the NRL for total points scored this season.

It beggars belief.

James Tedesco, Luke Keary, Joey Manu, Daniel Tupou, Joseph Sua’ali’i, Victor Radley… the list of representative quality players – and attacking players at that – goes on, despite the Chooks averaging just 16.4 points per game in season 2023.

So where has it all gone wrong?

It’s a combination of things.

Injuries and suspensions have played their part but cannot be an excuse for the Roosters form this year.

So too, a lack of combinations or cohesion – the Bulldogs have used more players than anyone in the NRL but still average more points per game than Easts.

It’s not a personnel issue, either. The Roosters are flushed with talent but somewhere between kick-off and fulltime it’s all going wrong.

Ill-discipline is a key factor.

The Roosters rank fourth in the NRL for ineffective tackles and fifth for average missed tackles. Their 11.5 errors per game is the second most in the competition, and only three rival clubs have conceded more penalties this year.

When you add this all up, the attacking woes start to make sense. The Chooks are handing over the ball too often, giving their opposition free passage upfield too often, and missing way too many tackles.

On the rare occasion they do hold the ball and work towards an attacking action, they’re playing with no confidence.

This is a club who won back-to-back premierships while ranking in the top three for errors. The Chooks have always rolled the dice in attack and backed themselves to defend their errors, but they’re doing neither in 2023.

Against the Storm last week, the Roosters created multiple attacking opportunities for themselves in the opening quarter. On each occasion though, they took the wrong option with the ball and failed to turn field position into points.

As Jase has touched on a few times this year, the Roosters are at their best when hitting short sides in yardage. Luke Keary, and more recently Sandon Smith, have both looked good in these areas alongside Jake Turpin, who is triggering these actions nicely.

A good play-the-ball from Junior Pauga is the catalyst for this short-side raid on tackle three. Keary generates some good yardage with the ball in hand but can’t link up with his outside men in this instance.

It’s the percentage play from Keary to take the tackle here which was fine, until a similar thing happened shortly after on the other edge.

Again it’s Turpin with good ruck recognition to identify the numbers advantage down the short side. He holds up the markers long enough to get Sandon Smith at Tui Kamikamica, where the overlap becomes apparent.

Instead of engaging a defender and capitalising on that overlap though, Radley runs straight into the space before passing Sua’ali’i into a dead-end situation right beside him.

Did Sua’ali’i need to drop underneath and offer Radley an option back on the inside?

Should Radley have got to Justin Olam quicker and played to the outside?

I’m not sure what the answer was here, but this wasn’t it.

In his defence, Radley is playing out of position on the edge right now. But he’s also playing without any confidence – something that can be said of a few Roosters players right now.

We know Manu is a run-first, pass-second operator, but his reluctance to promote the footy left a few points out there in NRL Round 20.

A lovely cut-out from Smith here beats the jamming defence to put Manu in a three-on-two situation. Instead of drawing in Reimis Smith and passing Nat Butcher into space though, Manu bangs off his left foot and goes himself – a missed opportunity.

He very nearly pokes his nose through the line though, winning a quick play-the-ball for Easts to continue their assault.

A settler through Jared Warea-Hargreaves is the next action.

He bumps Christian Welch in the process, sending the Storm prop stumbling to the ground and clearly vulnerable on the following play.

It happens right in front of Keary who has to have seen Welch retreat sluggishly into the line, but he doesn’t call the ball. Instead, Turpin swings it right to Smith from the Warea-Hargreaves play-the-ball.

In fairness to Smith, Xavier Coates is just about the only winger in the NRL who’s both tall enough to take that catch, and quick enough to run the length. It’s unlucky for the young halfback who took the right option in this instance but just failed to execute.

Unfortunately, between poor decision making or poor execution, the Roosters issues continued.

They got to the right spots in good-ball to play some footy, but failed to take the right option along the backline:

There’s Smith again doing nice things in the lead up, engaging the four-in defender (Cam Munster) and created the space out wide. When Keary chimes onto the ball and holds up Munster though, he throws out the back to Manu instead of putting Sua’ali’i into space off his hip.

And in their next good-ball set, when Keary did call the ball with an advantage down the short side, again the Roosters decision making and execution was off:

From a four-on-three overlap on the edge, a forced drop-out isn’t the worst result in the world but it isn’t the best one, either…

This isn’t a Roosters bashing piece.

It’s easy for me to watch an action, play-by-ball from my office at home, and suggest what a player should’ve done in that moment.

Players make poor decisions all the time in the NRL. Under pressure and fatigue, with different players inside and outside and a defensive line in your face, mistakes will happen.

They’re just happening far more often for the Roosters this season. The five or six actions above all happened inside the first 20 minutes of this game – that’s far too many missed opportunities against any side, let alone the Melbourne Storm.

Playing under immense pressure and without any confidence, the Roosters are finding ways to lose at the moment. They’re not converting their chances in attack and when they do take the right option, their execution is off.

With their 2023 campaign now into mathematical territory, the Chooks must respond this weekend against the Gold Coast Titans. And despite their recent form, a double-digit thrashing would not surprise given the talent in this roster.

And if that talent finds some confidence, we might finally see what the Roosters squad can do.


Head Noise – What’s living rent free in my head this week?

The 2023 NRLW regular season kicks off this weekend and I’ll be following the competition closely here at RLWriters.

I’ve already got my favourites after watching closely over the last two seasons, but there’s plenty of next-gen talent making their NRLW debuts this weekend, or transitioning into a new position or role within their team.

Here’s a few names I’ve got my eye on in NRLW Round 1:

Fran Goldthorp (Cowboys) – I watched a one minute highlight reel of Goldthorp before deciding she’ll be one of the better fullbacks in the NRLW this season. She’s a wonderful mover but it’s her subtle pre-pass movements and the way she holds the ball out in front that suggests to me Goldthorp is a genuine ballplayer.

Gayle Broughton (Broncos) – She was at her best on kick returns while playing fullback for the Parramatta Eels last year, but as the season went on Broughton began working herself into more playmaking positions.

Actions like this suggest Broughton will adjust well to playing in the front line. With Ali Brigginshaw setting things up on her inside, Broughton can be free to pick her moments on the left edge. It’s a pleasing combination on paper.

Jocelyn Kelleher (Roosters) – The Roosters NRLW side is absolutely stacked (Jase has highlighted their potent left edge here) but one question mark lingers over their halfback. Kelleher has 17 NRLW games to her name but has spent most of those coming off the bench somewhere in the spine. She doesn’t need to do heaps in this side but her kicking game will be important.

Losana Lutu (Tigers) I’ve already mentioned her after a starring performance in the Womens U19’s Origin game last week. She’s named on the bench for the Tigers maiden NRLW game, but I’m tipping her to earn a starting jersey – at lock or in the halves – sooner rather than later.

Emma Tonegato (Sharks) – Like Broughton at Brisbane, Tonegato will also attempt a move from fullback to five-eighth this year. She’s a great defender and a strong runner, but I’m interested to see how her ballplaying develops this season.

Actions like this scrum set-piece last year suggests she’ll transition just fine:

She’s got good speed and footwork, and seems to know how to use them to manipulate specific defenders in the line. Her combination with left centre Tiana Penitani could become a real highlight for the Sharks this year.

Ashleigh Quinlan (Raiders) – Quinlan was a big part of Parramatta’s 2022 grand final push, helping to unlock the Eels left edge with her slick passing game. She’ll form a likeable combination with Zahara Temara in the halves which could help the Raiders surprise a few this season.


RLW Percentage Play – NRL Round 21

While RLW content is the kind of gear you’re likely to discuss over a schooner at the pub, our premium subscribers see it for what it can really be – an edge. Not every action we notice eventuates in a winning bet slip, but with enough work we can at the very least take an educated guess – an informed punt, if you will – at where the value is each week in the NRL.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Cronulla Sharks (Sunday)

The Warriors forced Craig Fitzgibbons’ hand last weekend by dismantling the Sharks left edge defensive unit. With some new faces coming in on that edge for Cronulla this week, I think we’re going to see Manly employ a similar approach to the Warriors in attack.

Olakau’atu is a regular target for the Sea Eagles attack and he can score in a variety of ways.

With Jesse Colquhoun, Brayden Trindall and Connor Tracey in front of him on Sunday though, I think we’re going to see Daly Cherry-Evans play short to his backrower in good-ball.

Olakau’atu runs a great line of his halfback’s hip and is a kick target too, either in the air or on the ground. I think we’re most likely to see him pouring onto a short ball from Cherry-Evans though.

Check the video breakdown here.

RLW Round 21 Percentage Play

Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $3.45 (Neds)

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