The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 9 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Thursday Night Members Memo: Kennedy v Drinkwater
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves Appreciation Post
Given the strange structure of Round 8 and the times we released our round reviews, this is more of an extension of my Repeat Set for the week.
It’s an appreciation of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.
He has been so good this year that we’ve not even had the ‘age is catching up with him’ article we’d have normally seen by now.
Waerea-Hargreaves has been one of the most consistent and hard-working middle forwards in the NRL over the last decade. Whenever Trent Robinson has needed to lean on him, the big Kiwi has produced the goods.
His ability to play big minutes doesn’t seem to be waning, even at 34 years old. Within them, he constantly puts his hands up for the tough carries and is brutal in defence.
In Round 8, he laid on a banger for Victor Radley to score under the posts.
The Roosters played to this a few times. They’ve obviously noticed the St George-Illawarra Dragons spread themselves across the field in defence.
You can see the gap between Michael Molo and Jack Bird ahead of time. Ideally, you don’t want the edge backrower to creep inside the posts. Bird seems to be holding his width in the hope that his middles will make up the space as the ball shifts across the field. Perhaps seeing Waerea-Hargreaves – not a noted passer – is taking possession, Bird feels comfortable holding out wide. However, the big Kiwi pops a little pass to his lock forward to register a rare try assist.
I’m not sure how it was allowed to happen, but here’s Waerea-Hargreaves taking the kickoff at a crucial time of the match, cool as you like, and completing the first carry of the set.
Waerea-Hargreaves has a reputation. It’s enough for some to look past him as one of the better props in the NRL. Still, despite his judiciary record and age, he remains as one of the competition’s top contributors through the middle.
Raiders through the middle
It’s early days and they’ve only scored 19 tries through the 2023 NRL season so far, but nine of them have been scored in the middle of the field according to Stats Insiders Try Location Analysis.
I keep a close eye on the try location numbers during a season, and to see 47% in the middle regardless of how far in we are, jumps out.
There are a couple around the 30% mark – again, fairly high. No team finished the 2022 NRL season with more than 30% of their tries scored through the middle of the field.
47%…
The Raiders are in a bit of a rough spot. They’re outside the Top 8 and have had it confirmed that Jack Wighton will depart the club at the end of the year. Given how Ricky Stuart has handled these situations in the past, Wighton might not be such a big part of the side moving forward. To have 47% of their tries being scored in the middle is a worry, too.
It’s not sustainable and they’re going to need to find points out wide before those in the middle dry up.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on how they attack the middle of the field in good ball this week. Are those tries coming as a result of set plays? Are they a bit lucky? Is the reason they’ve not scored many out wide because they’re being scored through the middle first?
Spot the difference
The Wests Tigers were better in Round 8.
They couldn’t quite get the win, but there were positive signs within their attack that should translate into competition points soon.
I highlighted this shift before the game as one of the major issues in their good ball attack:
From roughly the same spot on the field in Round 8, the Tigers found points.
The difference?
Api Koroisau engages a defender in the middle of the field to stress the defensive line. Unlike the Eels edge which could move up and across with ease, Koroisau is able to get a defender to bite.
The Sea Eagles edge is now short and put under pressure to make a decision. That decision comes from Brad Parker who tries to jam in on Jahream Bula out the back of Luke Brooks’ lead. Reuben Garrick follows him in but is a split second too late to close down the shift as some nice hands from Starford To’a find Charlie Staines on the wing.
That’s nice.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, just as confidence starts to build, they’re up against one of the best defensive teams in NRL history this week. Still, we can keep an eye out for positive signs again on Saturday night.
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Newcastle Knights scrum defence
The Newcastle Knights left edge looks as though it is becoming a target for opposing teams setting from scrums inside the 20.
Shaun Johnson laid on a beauty in Round 6 by beating the first defender and dragging Bradman Best in before releasing a pass to Adam Pomey.
Scott Drinkwater looked to do exactly the same when faced with a similar proposition in Round 8.
He wants to skip outside his man to get at Best. This time, however, it’s Tyson Gamble defending inside the centre. Unlike Jayden Brailey who pushed up and sat on his heels as Johnson started to move, Gamble pushes forward to close to Drinkwater’s time with the ball.
Drinkwater takes the ball a bit flatter which doesn’t help him here. Johnson has laid out the blueprint by receiving the ball slightly behind the line with enough time to throw some doubt into the three-in defender.
Best is quite jumpy once he’s up and set. He’s the target for the ball-player here. How the Knights defend these shots will be something to follow all season.
With one last set to win it on Saturday night, we saw what the Knights will miss in Brailey’s absence as the Knights failed to fire a decent shot at the North Queensland Cowboys defence.
Zac Lomax off the tee
Zac Lomax is really struggling off the tee at the moment.
According to Stats Insider’s True Kicker Ratings, he has left an NRL-worst nine points on the tee already this season. For a side that has scored more or the same number of tries in their last three games for three defeats, it’s a growing concern.
For those unfamiliar with the ratings: Using historical data, a benchmark is assigned to each kick that represents how often we would expect the NRL average kicker to kick a goal from that particular location.
A full breakdown can be found here.
There aren’t a lot of options to take over from Lomax either. Only Jack Bird and Moses Mbye have had at least five shots over the last four seasons and both recorded a worse True Kicker Differential than Lomax has done in that time, even with his significant drop of late.
I expect the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs to run fairly close to the Dragons this week, so Lomax’s kicking will again play a major part.
Wallace’s identity crisis
“Am I a frustrated five-eighth? Probably. Frustrated five-eighth in a big man’s body.” – Jarrod Wallace
Jarrod Wallace has always had a pass in him. In Round 8, he threw an important pass for the Dolphins to complete an incredible comeback over his former side.
He finished up with 10 passes on 25 touches in 45 minutes. The 31-year-old found 181 metres on the ground, too.
In the #14 jersey again this week, Wallace is one to keep an eye on. He has the potential to be a big player for the Dolphins off the bench. While consistency has been an issue throughout his NRL career, Wallace is an option both as a ball-playing middle or a big body to cart the ball forward for Wayne Bennett. Whatever the game needs, Wallace can provide it.
Other Quick NRL Notes
– Oscar wrote a convincing piece on Lachie Miller a few weeks ago but I’m still not there with the Knights fullback. He’s quite clearly a good runner of the football, but he is still a work in progress in the rest of his game. I’m looking to see if he can improve on the three errors he made last week.
– Are we in for a ‘how did the Tigers let Jock Madden go?’ article this week?
– It will be interesting to see how Isaiah Tass responds to the Jack Wighton news this week. Likewise, how Jack Wighton performs with the decision to leave the Canberra Raiders now locked in.
– I like the Titans to score a few points down the left edge this week. Kieran Foran straightens well and David Fifita is a new man. Daly Cherry-Evans is in for a long evening.
– Tyrell Sloan played out the sort of game that could end up as his true announcement to the NRL. He has been up and down to start his career but played out one of his best in Round 8. If he can back it up again on Sunday, we can start to get really excited about his development.
– Josh Reynolds is starting in the halves for the Bulldogs – strange. Karl Oloapu is a chance of sneaking into the side. He has the ability with the ball but his defence is a concern at this level.