Whether you’re searching for an edge in the workplace tipping comp or just desperate to talk some footy, you’ve found the place. Join Oscar Pannifex as he unpacks the scrum each week in the NRL.
Underestimating Lachie Miller
With just 11 NRL first-grade appearances under his belt, we can be excused for underestimating Newcastle Knights fullback Lachie Miller… until now. His involvements over the last fortnight against the Dolphins and Raiders have forced the NRL world to take notice as he takes a leading role in the Knights attack in 2023.
Making the transition from Rugby Sevens, Miller was always going to be a good ball runner and support player. He’s got a great feel for where the space is on the field, and his fitness and agility allows him to pop up in the right places and at the right times.
Actions like this wrap-around play with Lachlan Fitzgibbon in Round 3 is a good example.
This off-the-cuff footy is right up Miller’s alley. He’s got the vision to identify space on the left edge and the speed to skip across the line towards it. A nice flat pass puts Fitzgibbon into half a gap, and Miller has the presence of mind to wrap-around and regather the offload through the line.
As he grows comfortable in the NRL though, Miller is involving himself in more conventional rugby league actions. He’s getting on the ball as Newcastle work their way up field and chiming into backline movements nicely in attack.
This movement against the Dolphins made me take notice.
Jackson Hastings will nail these short-side shots in his sleep. He engages the marker and A-defender before throwing out the back to Miller, who’s speed forces Euan Aitken to bite at centre. With the overlap created, quick hands sends Dom Young down the touchline. It’s a simple involvement from Miller but one that helps the Knights to a 30+ metre gain in yardage.
Fast-forward one week and Miller was everywhere for the Knights in their 24-14 win over Canberra Raiders. He threw the final pass for two tries but had a hand in three as Newcastle dominated the second half.
His work from first-receiver here led to Greg Marzhew going over in the far corner, three passes later.
The key to Miller’s involvement is the speed at which he plays. The Raiders defence compresses as Miller accelerates towards the line, and they plant their feet when he slows to pass. Miller’s tempo change gets Corey Harawira-Naera interested in the middle of the field, and when the ball goes wide the Raiders are suddenly chasing. The half-yard Harawira-Naera turns inwards here is the half-yard Marzhew needs to go over in the corner.
Miller’s fingerprints were all over Dane Gagai’s try just minutes later.
He’s on the spot to collect an offload early in the set and quickly shifts the ball to space on the far side of the field. He doesn’t clock off though. Like all good fullbacks, Miller moves with the pass to be an option back on the inside if Bradman Best can get a pass away.
The offload doesn’t come so Miller slots into first-receiver on the next tackle.
Just with Marzhew’s try earlier, Miller’s tempo changing run here is the catalyst for another promising action. His work with the ball engages Corey Horsburgh which buys Matt Croker a legs tackle and creates the opportunity to offload. Jack Hetherington steals another 15 metres as a result.
With Canberra scrambling to get back onside, Miller’s third involvement of this set is his best. He knows where the space is and puts himself in a position to exploit it.
Miller’s target here is Harley Smith-Shields. He makes a beeline towards his inside shoulder but is careful to not close down the space. Instead, he slows on his run again which sits Smith-Shields on his heels with Tyson Frizell coming at him. When the pass goes out the back, the Raiders centre can’t turn quickly enough as Dane Gagai slides over in the corner.
That’s three ballplaying involvements from Miller in three completely different areas on the field. Fair to say he’s more than just a ball runner at this point.
Saving the best for last, Miller put Frizell over a few sets later. Watch how Canberra’s defence react when Miller accelerates towards the line only to pull the handbrake at the last second:
Four Raiders gravitate towards him when Miller slows on his run, not sure whether to jam on the ball, on the lead runner or on the man out the back. In their indecision, Miller takes the right option to hit Frizell with the short ball. The front-on angle shows it best.
Miller’s target this time is Tom Starling, defending at 3-man with Jack Wighton in the bin. It would’ve been easy for Miller to get at Starling himself, but instead he slows his run to hold up Hudson Young. With Young unable to slide off the ball, the 80kg Starling is left isolated one-on-one with a 108kg Frizell just metres out from his try line. Physics does the rest.
At 28 years old, Miller isn’t your typical 11-game rookie. He’s had years to develop his skills (albeit not on an NRL field) and those experiences are helping him flourish in first-grade today. He’s still a work in progress – as a smaller body he will be a target for attacking hookers on the line – but its time we stop underestimating Miller’s quality as a ballplayer. He’s quickly become an integral part of the Knights attack in season 2023, particularly with Kalyn Ponga on the sidelines.
Head Noise – What’s living rent free in my head this week?
Jonah Pezet – Brained it against the Tigers last week and has one more game to convince Craig Bellamy he needs to stay in the side somewhere. Moving Cameron Munster to fullback seems unlikely but Pezet has made it an option with how well he’s played in the NRL so far. Loving his involvements.
Brendon Hands – Created the scoring opportunity down the short side last week and then iced it to go over on debut. We’re big Josh Hodgson believers here at RLWriters but Hands’ involvements caught the eye. He’s got the subtleties to hold up ruck defenders and the vision and speed to catch out lazy defenders down an edge. Watching closely.
Tom Dearden and Tom Chester – Dearden made three linebreaks last week but none of them were converted into four or six points. Tom Chester has been a revelation at fullback but I’m looking out for where he pops up in support this weekend. Also keeping an eye on Mitch Dunn who will reportedly play a distributing role through the middle in his return from injury. It’s an area we’ve been waiting for Dunn to accomodate in the NRL for a while now.
Sebastian Kris – He’s playing out of position and in a struggling attacking outfit, but you can’t question Kris’ efforts. He carries the ball strongly and is getting through a mountain of work in Canberra’s exit sets. It feels like only a matter of time before he breaks the line on a kick return or drags three defenders into the in-goal in attack.
St George-Illawarra Dragons – Started well against the Sharks in Round 4 with some good ball movement in attack. They consistently dropped players back against the grain, testing inside defenders and creating one-on-one situations in yardage. It all fell away when fatigue set in, though. I’m interested to see if they employ a similar tactic on Saturday against the Dolphins.
RLW Percentage Play – NRL Round 5
While RLW content is the kind of gear you’re likely to discuss over a schooner at the pub, our premium subscribers see it for what it can really be – an edge. Not every action we notice eventuates in a winning bet slip, but with enough work we can at the very least take an educated guess – an informed punt, if you will – at where the value is each week in the NRL.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Melbourne Storm
Storm five-eighth Cameron Munster has a habit of shooting off his line to cut down the time and space of an opposing half. In a perfect world, Munster’s presence spooks his opposition and forces them to play back infield. If the opposing half is committed to passing to his backrower, Munster is on the spot to tackle the bigger man before they can get to full speed.
It’s a fairly common tactic in the NRL for defending halves – Daly Cherry-Evans is another who does it with varying success – but it does leave spaces back in behind the line.
The Parramatta Eels had some joy in that very space when Junior Paulo scored in Round 1. Some lovely deception from Josh Hodgson and the impossible footwork of a 120kg Paulo here punishes Munster for leaving the line in this instance:
The Gold Coast Titans also found points playing to a similar principle in Round 3.
It’s on the other edge this time but the intent is the same. A forward decoy (#16 Joe Vuna) holds up Nick Meaney in the line and also gets the attention of Jahrome Hughes. Both defenders can’t adjust quickly enough when AJ Brimson dribbles a grubber into the in-goal for Brian Kelly to score.
With these actions in mind, there is some value around Keaon Koloamatangi and Campbell Graham as anytime try scorers this week.
Lachlan Ilias has enjoyed a superb start to the season which includes three try assists and one line drop-out from four games. He’s engaging the line effectively before passing or kicking which is creating space for his teammates on the outside. Against a Storm left edge featuring an over-eager Munster, I’m looking for Ilias to drop a kick in behind the line for his centre or backrower.
He picked Koloamatangi out in Round 1 against the Sharks:
And he found Graham in a similar space agsinst the Dragons last year:
In both actions, dragging the opposition fullback into the defensive line is the trigger.
If Meaney slots himself in at A-defender on his own line on Friday night, look for Ilias to call the shot. If Meaney fills in on the open side, there will be enough time and space for Ilias to roll the ball into the in-goal. If he fills down the short side, dropping a decoy runner back towards the ruck (like Koloamatangi does in the Graham example above) will prevent Meaney from slipping out the back and covering the kick.
RLW Percentage Plays – NRL Round 5:
Keaon Koloamatangi anytime try scorer @ $5.25 (Neds)
Campbell Graham anytime try scorer @ $3 (Sportsbet)