The Rugby League Writers Newsletter gets you ready for the upcoming round of NRL and NRLW action with tips, previews, our Saturday watchlist and best bets.
Round 23 NRL Tips
Oscar and Jason are going head-to-head in a tipping competition with a twist this season. To make things interesting, a winning bet on Thursday or Friday night can set up a huge week with the total number of correct tips in the round multiplied by the odds of the winning punt.
| Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar | Rabbitohs | Cowboys/Broncos | Eels/Sharks/Roosters | Dragons/Raiders |
| Jason | Rabbitohs | Cowboys/Storm | Eels/Sharks/Roosters | Dragons/Raiders |
2022 Results
| Oscar | Jason | |
|---|---|---|
| Correct Tips | 115 | 120 |
| Bet boosted score | 150.7 | 181 |
Oscar: It’s a bit of a vibe bet but I like the Broncos to pull off the upset on Friday night. Suncorp has been a fortress for Brisbane in 2022 and the inclusion of Te Maire Martin at fullback has made a significant impact on this side. It’s going to be a tight one, but I think the Broncos might just do enough at home this week. Broncos to win @ $2.60.
Jason: I don’t think the Warriors are ever going to look like winning. However, they’ve shown enough in recent weeks for the +20.5 line to appeal. Playing away from Mt Smart is an issue, but if they can take a similar game plan to North Queensland, they’ll keep it close enough to cover. Warriors +20.5 @ $1.90.
NRLW 2022 Season Preview: Predicted profiles, players to watch & Round 1 notes
Round 1 of the 2022 NRLW season kicks off this weekend and Rugby League Writers is the place to be over the next eight weeks for in-depth analysis of the women’s game.
Just as we did when Rugby League Writers first started covering the NRL, all of our NRLW content will be free this year. Still, if you want to support the site and help us return to do the same in 2023, consider signing up for a Premium Membership. Use NRLW2022 for three months free.
Parramatta Eels
Predicted profile
The Parramatta Eels under delivered in the 2021 season but have invested heavily in young talent that should begin to produce results sooner rather than later. There isn’t a heap of established names across the squad but Parramatta have a big pack and a number of potential superstars in the backline.
Like the Gold Coast Titans this season, I think we’re going to see Parramatta play plenty down their left edge. Backrower Christian Pio is a superb line runner on that side of the field and is well supported by Tiana Pentani in the centres outside her.
Closer to the ruck, co-captain Simaima Taufu is an absolute beast at lock-forward and will ensure the Eels are constantly asking questions through the middle of the field. From there, shifting to either their strike left edge or to new fullback Gayle Broughton feels like Parramatta’s best avenue for points this season.
Broughton is a super exciting prospect.
She’s got lightning speed, footwork and vision unlike we’ve seen much of in the NRLW so far. Emma Tonegato and Tamika Upton – arguably the two best fullbacks in the game – have great top line speed but neither of them move like Broughton. She will be a target every time the Eels work into good ball and I can’t wait to see what she can do with a little time and space.
Key players
Gayle Broughton (fullback) – As mentioned above, Broughton will be the star of Parramatta’s attacking systems this season. Coming from a Rugby 7’s background, Broughton has all the physical attributes required to become an elite #1 in the NRLW. It might take her a few weeks to learn the subtleties of the fullback role, but on raw talent alone, Broughton is still good enough to do something special this weekend.
Christian Pio (edge backrow) – In four games last season, Pio made two linebreaks and scored two tries. She runs a great line off her half and is effective in yardage with an average 80 running metres per game last season. She’s also a superb defender, finishing the ’21 season with a 92% tackle efficiency on the left edge. Maddie Studdon is gone from the halves, but Pio is a backrower who can help Parramatta’s young halves transition into first-grade (see below).
Losana Lutu (half) – Remember this name!! The 18 year old Fijian international is a highly intelligent ballplayer who will have a long future in the game. This action from the NSWRL Grand Final a few weeks ago sums up Lutu for me.
With the clock winding down and needing to score, Lutu sets up on the left with shape around her. The play-the-ball is too slow and the service not up to scratch when she does take possession though, so Lutu calmly sends another forward back towards the posts and sets up again. Liking what she sees more on the following tackle, Lutu makes the play and Wests Tigers win the premiership.
The patience, awareness and execution here is all class. We’ve seen plenty of halves with the fast feet or ball skills to make an impact in the NRLW, but fewer play with the control and composure Lutu does here. She is going to be a genuine star of the future.
Sydney Roosters
Predicted profile
Last year’s premiers profile well to challenge for the silverware again this season, with a host of their key talents retained and a number of astute signings bolstering an already stacked roster.
The Sydney Roosters have stacked their pack with mobile, dynamic forwards like former Gold Coast Titan Shaniah Power and NSW Sky Blues rep (and personal favourite) Sarah Togatuki. Destiny Brill is a running threat herself from dummy-half and will play behind a forward pack that should be competitive most weeks.
Power’s inclusion in the backrow rounds out a formidable left edge for the Roosters, who have one half of arguably the best halves pairing in the game in Zehara Temara at five-eighth and newly-appointed captain Isabelle Kelly at left centre. Temara is a highly skilful ballplayer who profiles well to get the most out of Power and Kelly in attack.
On the other side of the field, Raecene McGregor is my pick for best halfback in the competition and is well equipped to bring Jess Sergis and veteran Sam Bremner into the game in good-ball with either a pass or kick.
The Roosters have genuine strike on both edges and two of the better ballplayers in the game who can get the ball where it needs to go. They’ll also be playing behind a competitive forward pack that should win its share of field position. They profile a bit like Easts’ mens’ side – compress the middle then hit the edges hard.
Key players
Shaniah Power (edge backrow) – The Roosters have picked up a good one in Power who joins her third NRLW club in as many seasons following stints at the Titans and Warriors. Power is a highly mobile, highly skilled edge forward who can bust a tackle as well as she can play eyes up, and throw a clean pass at the line.
Given the threat Kelly poses in the centres outside her, there’s every chance opposing teams will tighten up when the ball comes towards Power on that left edge. If they do, she’s already shown she has the skills to punish them with a face ball to her winger.
If the defence holds and gives Power a chance to run, she’s more than capable of taking the line on herself too.
A lot of Power’s best work in the 2021 NRLW season was individual brilliance. Playing in a Titans side that only hit their straps late in the season, Power was rarely put into promising areas on the field and afforded her best chance to impact the game.
Playing in an elite Roosters side this season feels like it might be another story…
Sarah Togatuki (prop) – One of my favourite players of the 2021 competition, Togatuki is an absolute beast and will spearhead the Roosters forward pack this season. She’s built low to the ground and has wicked footwork which allows her to bust boatloads of tackles and consistently bend or break the line to generate ruck speed for her team.
The one-two punch of Togatuki and Power in either yardage or good ball feels like a promising combination for the Roosters this season as they look to compress the middle before hitting hard on the edges.
Raecene McGregor (halfback) – One of the best ballplayers in the competition and a true competitor. McGregor has superb vision and a good understanding of the game, coupled with the skillset to capitalise on opportunities across the park.
McGregor had some huge plays in the 2021 Grand Final on both sides of the ball. She swept over to the left hand side of the field to set up Isabelle Kelly’s match sealing try and she also made a number of crucial defensive reads as the Dragons threatened a comeback.
With all the tools at her disposal again this season, McGregor is the one who can pull it all together for the Roosters as they chase back-to-back NRLW titles.
CHECK OUT THE FULL NRLW SEASON PREVIEW HERE.
Oscar earned a late call-up to the NEDS NRL Punting Podcast this week where he started to preview the upcoming NRLW season.
Saturday Notepad
The Notepad identifies one key player, stat, trend or talking point for every team, every round of the 2022 NRL season.
Have the full Notepad delivered straight to your inbox every Thursday by signing up for a Premium membership. Use RLW2022 at checkout for three months free.
Saturday
Eels
Ah, Parramatta.
What is the point in even talking about them before a game? Nobody has any idea whatsoever. Every week is a lottery and last week’s ticket went into the bin early.
They’re frustrating to watch and even my guy Colmac at The Cumberland Throw couldn’t muster the energy or fanaticism to conjure up any positive numbers in his Stats That Matta piece this week.
“There’ll be no pretty maps. No deep dive into the numbers. No statistically outstanding player of the week. There’s really no point. I couldn’t see a game plan. There was zero attack. There was nothing even close to an attacking set and no attempt to build pressure.”
Mitchell Moses returns this week and his direction could be the difference. The Warriors ploughed through the Bulldogs’ middle in Round 22 and the Eels can do the same if they approach this game in the right way.
Bulldogs
They became one of the most entertaining teams in the NRL in recent weeks but let one slip to the Warriors last week. Favourites to win before kickoff, the Dogs never really looked like leaving New Zealand with the two competition points. I expect their attack to bounce back fairly quickly, but the Bulldogs right-edge defence was exposed last week.
Reece Walsh punished them twice by heading straight at Braidon Burns. Kyle Flanagan couldn’t close the space quick enough and Burns isn’t particularly quick laterally. That opened up the space out wide and Ed Kosi finished it off both times.
The Eels score 51% of their tries down the left side of the field. Flanagan and Burns will be tested again on Saturday afternoon.
Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles have found themselves in strife again this week. Their season is unravelling before our eyes and time has run out to fix it. A chance at playing finals football only three weeks ago, the Sea Eagles are playing for the 2023 NRL season now.
Josh Schuster is the one to consider most. With Kieran Foran confirmed to be leaving and Schuster expected to step straight into the #6 jersey, I’m looking to see if he spots up in the position a little bit more in this one. Run him in some five-eighth shapes and see how he goes.
The 21-year-old hasn’t been banging the door down to take over this year. Poor physically and inconsistent on the field, we need to see Schuster start to produce over the final three weeks of the season.
Sharks
Braden Hamlin-Uele is a quality footballer. He’s not kicked on like many had anticipated over the last 12 months, but he’s coming into form now and has a chance to run out with the starting side for a few weeks.
He’s decent enough in yardage and knows how to sniff out a try. It’s his footwork that stood out last week, though.
I love a wraparound try on the line. Reed Mahoney and Junior Paulo have pulled it off a few times over the last two years. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is an expert and set one up last week. Hamlin-Uele looks like a perfect candidate and his reputation as a try scorer near the line will only help.
I want to see Hamlin-Uele and Blayke Brailey link up on the line in this one.
Roosters
I’d love to see a heat map that shows where Joseph Manu spends his time on the field. He’s all over the place for a right-side centre. One of the benefits is his ability to contest the high-ball on last tackle.
He regularly floats in-field during a yardage set. Manu often looks to take a carry on the third tackle whether it be from dummy half or a first-receiver. Further up the field, he holds off until later in the set where he can involve himself on a shift or the 5th-tackle kick as he did here.
There are potential problems, though…
Tigers
The Tigers don’t really have the players to pull this off, but you can see the Cowboys tried to fire the ball wide here.
Manu is roughly where he should be but he doesn’t always get back to the right side of the field. If not for a well-timed Joseph Sua’ali’i tackle, Murray Taulagi and Valentine Holmes have acres of space to get up the field.
It doesn’t sound quite as dangerous with AJ Kepaoa and Ken Maumalo out there but the Tigers are a team with nothing to lose.
Sandwich Stakes
We’re putting a tenner down on a couple of games each round to pay for a few sandwiches during the working week.
Oscar: It’s dropped a little since I got on earlier in the week but there’s still value in this price in my opinion. The Sea Eagles are missing Jake Trbojevic and Rueben Garrick – two of their best contributors this season – and the Sharks profile well to flood the ruck and shift it to the edges where Manly has been questionable at times with their defensive reads. Sharks 13+ @ $1.72.
Jason: The Dragons have performed well at home this season while the Titans have failed to win a game on the road. However, the Titans are improving and I like the way they’re set up this week. These two are more even than the W/L column suggests and while I expect the Dragons to win it behind Ben Hunt and the home ground, the Titans can make it a contest. Dragons 1-12 @ 3.35.