Recap the latest round of NRL action with the Repeat Set: Talking points, highlights, lowlights and the Play of the Round.
Here’s your Repeat Set for Round 8 of the 2022 NRL season:
- Coaching Carousel
- Roosters laying eggs
- It was a round to remember for… North Queensland Cowboys
- It was a round to forget for… Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
- I can’t stop thinking about…
- Play of the Round: Johnson’s winner
Coaching Carousel
Discussions around coaches and who is on the chopping block keep the NRL world going round. Right now, six coaches are under pressure to keep their place in the box and some feel the heat coming from their seat more than others.
Let’s work our way up the NRL ladder from 16th in Round 8 to get an idea of the level of pressure, what is going wrong and how things can improve for the coaches struggling to start 2022.
16th – Newcastle Knights, Adam O’Brien
Pressure: Strangely, it feels as though Adam O’Brien is relatively safe in his job despite losing the last fortnight of footy 89-4. He’s dealing with injuries and the Knights have been going through these same things for years. It doesn’t apply to every coach given the varying situations, but who else is there?
Where it is going wrong: The Knights simply can’t score any points. They scored 46 across the opening two rounds of the NRL season for two wins. Since then, they’ve scored 46 points across six weeks for six losses. There is a lot more to it than Kalyn Ponga returning from injury in Round 3 and the Knights attack falling off a cliff since then, but it’s something to consider.
Ponga is one of the best-attacking players in the competition. O’Brien knows that and he’s trying to get him involved in different ways. Perhaps too involved and in too many different ways. His 43.3 touches per game is the most of any fullback in the NRL and up on the 38.9 touches per game last year. Where Ponga was once a quality over quantity involvement in the attack primarily down the left edge, he is now being deployed across the field and being used more often.
You want to get your best players the ball – obviously. But forcing it makes things easier for the defence, and in the case of Jake Clifford who is at his best playing instinctive footy, can limit the influence of those around him. The Knights have defended poorly in recent weeks and a lot of that comes down to the pressure that comes from a lack of points. If they can start to get the scoreboard ticking over themselves, we might start to see what had become a familiar resilience in defence in recent seasons.
Where it can be fixed: If the Knights want Ponga to be more involved outside of left-side shifts, then I’d like to see it down short sides. I’ve been harping on about it all year but we again saw how dangerous it can be on Sunday.
Here off the scrum they bring Felise Kaufusi and Jahrome Hughes into the tackle – two right edge defenders. The Storm defence doesn’t respond from the scrum and Ponga sees the numbers, jumps around to the short side and attacks a retreating defence.
Bang. Knights go from their own 40-metre line to attacking from the opposition’s 20-metre line in the space of two tackles. It’s in these actions that Ponga can have a big impact rather than looking for him to create something out of nothing across the field.
15th – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Trent Barrett
Pressure: For better or worse, media commentary plays a part in how secure a coach is in his job throughout a poor period. We will get into a couple of those better instances soon, but Gus Gould’s position and recent influence at the Bulldogs hasn’t made things easy for Barrett from a media perspective. Although, the on-field product should be enough to apply pressure itself…
Where it is going wrong: The Bulldogs attack is bad. There is no way around that fact. Despite all of the firepower introduced over the summer, they’ve failed to show many signs of improvement to start the 2022 NRL season – if any. Their most consistent weapon is Matt Burton’s boot on the last. In good ball, it’s flick it wide to Burton on the left or give it to Matt Dufty on the right and hope his speed is enough to get on the outside of his man to create an overlap out wide.
I desperately searched for positives in Round 5 and found a couple of reasons to be optimistic about an improvement in the coming weeks. For the most part, those improvements haven’t come and the same issues remain. They’re yet to score 20 points this season and are made to work very hard for the 10.8 they’re averaging with the ball.
The Bulldogs are conceding 23.9 points per game – the fourth-most in the NRL. It’s another area of concern, but it feels as though the pressure that is coming from a lack of points is a significant contributor to the points they’re conceding.
Where it can be fixed: The Bulldogs have three big bodies in Luke Thompson, Tevita Pangai Jr. and Paul Vaughan starting. It shouldn’t be so difficult to attract the attention of the middle defence and delay the slide to provide the outside backs with room to move. The numbers are telling and paint a picture of where things need to improve:
The Bulldogs run a lot of decoys but do little with them due to how little they engage the line. If you’re not holding up a player or two in the middle using deception with the ball and/or a decoy runner, the defence can simply slide and cover the shift.
Teams know Burton is the focus. If the defence is sliding easily, that gives the outside backs of the defending team an opportunity to jam in and close down Burton’s space knowing they’re covered from the inside should the ball get past them.
How to fix the Bulldogs is a feature in itself, but for now, they need to engage the line and make things easier for their star recruits out wide.
14th – Canberra Raiders, Ricky Stuart
Pressure: And now the better example of rugby league media. It pays to have friends in the right places and Ricky Stuart’s relationship with prominent media members certainly helps relieve pressure. His side are the most disappointing in the NRL right now but there is little conversation around Stuart’s future.
Where it is going wrong: Since coming back from 22-4 down at halftime to beat the Titans 24-22 in Round 3, the Raiders have scored eight second-half points. What else is there to say, really?
This team is falling asleep and not waking up to finish the job. Raiders CEO Don Furner offered up a meme-like response to their latest loss:
“He [Stuart] wasn’t the one out there making dumb mistakes and throwing stupid passes. They’re not coached to do that. I know society has to find someone to blame, but if you’re asking me whose fault it is I’ll tell you there is collective blame.”
There is a lot of talent on this roster. I pegged them as one of the deeper teams before Round 1 and thought they’d be floating around the Top 8 contenders at worst. Instead, they’re only playing 40 minutes of footy every week – if that.
Where it can be fixed: There are the areas that can’t really be measured. Pure effort, concentration and a want to do the little things will begin to repair what has been a horror 2022 NRL season to start. The more meat and potatoes fix is in yardage.
The Raiders run for 1,382 metres per game to be the worst yardage team in the competition. Running metres has long been an accurate measure of a football side. Even right now:
1st – Panthers: 1,809m per game
2nd -Eels: 1,750m per game
3rd – Cowboys: 1,699m per game
4th – Rabbitohs: 1,699m per game
5th – Storm: 1,665m per game
And now to the bottom of the list which looks similar to the NRL ladder…
13th – Bulldogs: 1,469m per game
14th – Knights: 1,406m per game
15th – Warriors: 1,382m per game
16th – Raiders: 1,382m per game
Running for more metres won’t necessarily result in a flurry of wins, but it will keep them in games longer and go a long way to winning those they’re ahead. To lose to a Warriors side that ran for 1,174 metres in Round 8 is quite remarkable. The Raiders don’t need to play great footy to beat those around them on the NRL ladder right now but they can’t provide them with free passage up the field without making a dent in response.
13th – Wests Tigers, Michael Maguire
Pressure: ABC’s Nick Campton nailed it in his pre-game hype piece this week:
“Coach under pressure? Win some games. Want a new contract? Win some games. Newspapers on your back? Win some games. Fans not showing up? Win — and this can’t be stressed enough — some games.”
Right now following two wins and a decent enough third game in as many weeks, Michael Maguire is relatively safe.
Where it is going wrong: The Wests Tigers have played that well over the last three weeks that it’s difficult to draw a circle around where it’s going wrong for them right now. They’re a different team with Jackson Hastings on the field and it seems silly to look back on those Hastings-less horror shows having seen how much better they are with him leading the way.
The smarts of this play just hadn’t been there before Hastings arrived:
The key is seeing Jack de Belin slow to peel out of the tackle before filling up on the short side. That forces Andrew McCullough to reload on the long side at A defender. Following a quick play-the-ball and getting downhill himself, Hastings heads straight at McCullough who doesn’t get off his line before tipping inside to Zane Musgrove.
I highlight that to say this action is what has changed over the last three weeks. There was little like it throughout the first five.
Where it can be stay fixed: The key for the Tigers is to keep building. Build into Adam Doueihi’s return and give him something to play with from the start. He’s going to take some time to warm into the NRL season and won’t be at his best physically until 2023. In the meantime, it’s important that they take the foundations of the last three weeks and take it into the rest of the year.
“Foundations” is the key. Hastings won’t average 96 touches per game all season. He can’t. Teams will eventually click on to how often he touches the ball and force it into the hands of others. Force the rest of the team to create points. From what we saw in the games without Hastings, they won’t create much.
Maguire has had a nice three weeks. He’s relatively comfortable right now but he can’t afford to get cosy and assume this upward trend will continue. Wests Tigers fans of all people know it isn’t that simple.
12th – Gold Coast Titans, Justin Holbrook
Pressure: It isn’t easy to measure the pressure on Holbrook. The Titans don’t generate news so he won’t be at the forefront of too many rugby league conversations in Sydney. Surely those in charge at the Titans understand the nature at which they made the finals last year, too. It will take a lot for Holbrook to be moved on at this stage.
Where it is going wrong: We can copy a lot of our analysis from the 2021 NRL season and drop it right in here.
Poor periods in defence costing them games ✅
Inconsistency in key playmaking positions ✅
A shuffling of the deckchairs in the middle ✅
An overreliance on David Fifita with the ball ✅✅✅
The Titans still lack creativity and consistency with the ball. While we can assign injuries as part of the reason for that, one point has barely rated a mention: Moving on from Jamal Fogarty.
Assuming things are different if he doesn’t end up in Canberra and his knee remains intact on the Gold Coast, the Titans could really use Fogarty at the moment. Toby Sexton has produced some nice enough moments, but a handful of nice moments from your halfback – particularly when the rest of the spine is far from settled – isn’t enough to play finals football. The Titans are missing a voice in attack and the structure that comes with it. “Structure” has become a dirty word in rugby league for a variety of reasons but every team has one – especially the good ones. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what the Titans are trying to do with the ball outside of getting it up the field and eventually into Fifita’s hands.
Where it can be fixed: There won’t be too many weirdos with similar thoughts to mine upon hearing the news that Fifita would be out for four weeks with a knee injury. However, this could be a good thing for the Titans. As the Sea Eagles have been forced to do without Tom Trbojevic in recent weeks, the Titans don’t have a choice but to explore different options in attack. The easy option is no longer there and we’re going to see what Holbrook and the Titans have in them with the ball over the next month.
For me, it will involve the return of Jayden Campbell in some capacity. He has looked sharp for the Tweed Seagulls over the last fortnight and will be nearing a return to first grade. A lot will be read into the numbers Campbell and AJ Brimson wear but where they pop up in attack will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.
Having the pair interchange in where they feature on long-side shifts is something we saw glimpses of earlier in the year but injuries put a stop to how that action progressed.
Holbrook has one of the best attacking players in the NRL on his roster, but his job depends on what he gets out of the rest of it. The next month will be telling.
11th – New Zealand Warriors, Nathan Brown
Pressure: If there is one thing Nathan Brown knows, it’s how to work a media room. He’s always up for a chat and does a lot to keep the New Zealand rugby league media engaged despite the team being out of the country for three years. His results were so bad at the Knights they had no choice but to move him on in the end. Add his close relationship with CEO Cameron George and it will take a lot more than a bad year or two to shift him.
Where it is going wrong: I can hear the cries of “they’re 4-4 and equal on points with 6th on the ladder” already. That is true, and as a Warriors fan myself, it’s easier to get through a weekend with a win than it is a loss.
However, not every win is created equal. The Warriors’ 4-4 record is a prime example of how deceiving wins and losses can be. In reality, they’ve played out two of the ugliest wins most footy fans have ever seen, made the most of what are starting to be considered uncharacteristic defensive issues from the Cowboys, and beat the lowly Tigers.
A win is a win and all of that gear, but there is more to measuring a football side and right now, the Warriors are a long, long way off what their 4-4 record suggests.
Like the Raiders, issues in yardage are making games terribly difficult. The Warriors are averaging 1,382 running metres per game and seem to be getting worse. Rugby league is a simple game and getting up the field is a simple action all of the best teams in the NRL achieve in one way or another. The Warriors aren’t doing that and it’s only a matter of time before the results start to reflect their lack of push through the middle of the field.
Where it can be fixed: Addin Fonua-Blake would be talked about as one of the best props in the game at a different club.
Matt Lodge, for all of his faults, works hard with the ball and is underrated as a big body that can tip it on.
Jazz Tevaga has all of the characteristics of an electric middle that can push up around the ball and provide the quick play-the-ball to trigger shifts.
Tohu Harris is on the mend and dodgy knee or not will return as a top tier middle given his abilities with the ball in hand.
Brown has a way he wants to play footy. Fonzie (listen to his podcast, Warriors fans) has a theory on Brown’s game model which involves promoting fatigue in the line by moving defenders laterally. It has merit and you can see how it might be the case when seeing them work up the field. However, it isn’t making the best use of the players in the squad. It all sounds a little bit 2021, too. In Fonua-Blake, Lodge, Tevaga, and eventually Harris, the Warriors have three big bodies than can charge the middle and generate ruck speed. Shaun Johnson is a maestro when running downhill with players in motion around him. His best moments this year have been running at the defence rather than across it. Harris-Tavita was in career-best form before his injury and again looked his best playing direct and engaging the line.
Back to the Round 4 Repeat Set when Johnson laid on this beauty:
Johnson misses Fonua-Blake and hits Josh Curran who engages the two and three-in defenders. As Johnson sweeps around to the short side and takes Fonua-Blake with him, Pat Carrigan and Keenan Palasia are forced to fill in on the short side. Curran’s excellent play-the-ball and the extra distance the Broncos defenders need to cover means they have no line speed which allows Johnson to get downhill. The tape from previous games suggests Tesi Niu isn’t going to get up off the line at A defender either. That results in Carrigan turning in onto Johnson, Palasia taking Fonua-Blake, and Corey Oates caught between a rock (Jesse Arthars) and a hard place (Ed Kosi). Johnson completes a perfect pass and the Warriors score a simple but brilliant try.
While it could be highlighted as an example of the lateral attack theory, to me, it’s Johnson using two forwards in areas they work best to pull the defence out of shape and put them on the back foot.
Johnson and Harris-Tavita are very smart footballers and the Warriors middle is set up to play direct using strong carriers and short passes. Rather than trying to fit players into a model, I’d like to see Brown work around the players he already has in the side.
Roosters Laying Eggs
Given this piece is approaching 4,500 words at the time of writing this segment and long-form writing is dying a death for a reason, I’ll keep this brief. Brevity is easy here because I’m lost for words at how lost the Roosters look with the ball.
I really thought we’d see something from the Roosters in Round 8 after they talked about the need for Luke Keary to take on more control of the side. That something never came…
The Roosters are looking for answers and I’d imagine they look to James Tedesco as a result. He spent a lot of time around the ruck last year in the absence of Keary and given Sam Walker’s inexperience. While they didn’t set the world on fire throughout the year, the Roosters threatened more than they are in 2022 with less. I think we might see a little bit more of Tedesco on the ball in the coming weeks as the Roosters look to find some consistency in attack. Take it out of Victor Radley’s hands and put it into Tedesco’s.
Tedesco running at – and often breaking down – the line will create the disjointed defensive lines Walker and Keary need at the moment. Keary can hit the short sides and while Walker’s long-ball is his greatest strength, it’s one that requires the work to be done inside him first.
The Roosters attack is poor at the moment but that’s what makes it interesting. Trent Robinson will find a fix and I’m intrigued to see how he approaches the next few weeks.
A round to remember for…
I went into Saturday night’s primetime slot with one major question: Are the North Queensland Cowboys good?
Just mentioning the fact they had improved their defence from last in the NRL in 2021 to second in 2022 prompted comments around “they haven’t beaten anybody” and “soft draw” as though the first seven games of the season meant nothing. As it turns out, those opening seven weeks and the defensive resolve displayed meant a lot to their massive 35-4 win over the Parramatta Eels.
