The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the New Zealand Warriors who are preparing for a third season based in Australia.
New Zealand Warriors 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Addin Fonua-Blake, Eli Katoa
- Sections Wishlist: Harris-Tavita at five-eighth, Rocco Berry
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: Harris-Tavita + Nikorima + Taylor = ?
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the New Zealand Warriors 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
There has never been a year that hasn’t been “our year” for the New Zealand Warriors heading into Round 1. Albeit another disrupted season across the Tasman and with a new coach in charge, the feeling was for this group to compete for the Top 8. They never really got close despite being a mathematical chance late in the season.
Playing an NRL-high 13 ‘close games’ this season, the Warriors won just six of them. A turnover in players made developing cohesion in a relatively unfamiliar side difficult. Injury, form and Nathan Brown tinkering until he found something that worked cost them dearly late in matches.
Reece Walsh’s arrival is positive even if it did effectively cost them Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s last season. Matt Lodge offered some positive signs in the limited period he could stay on the field. Tohu Harris did Tohu Harris things while Josh Curran burst onto the scene as a first-grade backrower. Chanel Harris-Tavita also continued his development. However, individual positives scattered throughout the playing group didn’t translate into wins as the Warriors struggled to string good games together to win just eight matches – the same number Todd Payten managed in 2020 playing four fewer games.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Warriors attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
The Warriors started to develop some consistency in the way they used the ball towards the end of 2021.
A strong back-three has laid the foundations for the Warriors attack in recent years but they went searching for them too often to start the year. Bringing the far winger into the middle to take a carry in exit sets became predictable and ineffective. It took them away from the edge where the space is typically being created earlier in a set than ever right now.
Where earlier in the year they had looked too wide too early, the Warriors middle made more of an impact playing direct through the first two or three tackles of a set as the season went on, and we should see similar in 2022.
In Tohu Harris, Matthew Lodge and Addin Fonua-Blake, the Warriors have an elite trio of ball-carriers who can ball-play at varying levels. Fonua-Blake can tip a pass, Lodge threatened to throw more before being told to put it away, and Harris could play in the halves if he was asked. They’re going to be able to pick out and isolate defenders in yardage to drag the Warriors up the field where Shaun Johnson can add the touch of class they’ve sorely lacked since his departure.
Tries follow Johnson wherever he goes which adds a certain level of threat to the right edge. Josh Curran came from nowhere to become one of the better edge backrowers in the NRL last season and his combination with Johnson has the potential to cause havoc. One spot wider is Rocco Berry who has the potential to be a dangerous attacking player when isolated one-on-one with his opposite. The right side of the field won’t be a problem for the Warriors. It’s the left that needs some work.
Despite conceding that Kodi Nikorima wasn’t their guy for five-eighth once already before, he seems to be in the box seat to start the year in the halves. Chanel Harris-Tavita and even Ash Taylor profile as better partners for Reece Walsh down that right side but will need to wait for their opportunity in 2022. The possibility for rotation – and we know Nathan Brown loves to rotate through players – is a massive cause for concern given the clunky attack and defensive frailties a lack of consistency and cohesion on the edge can promote.
However, there is a Top 8 attacking team within this group. Johnson is the match-winner they’ve lacked since he left and they’re a chance in any game he plays. Meanwhile, Walsh is expected to improve following an impressive rookie season with Wayde Egan also displaying promising signs with the ball at times last year. Given the pack they have at their disposal and the attacking flare scattered throughout, the Warriors are going to have their moments with the ball. How consistently they occur will determine whether or not they play finals football for the first time since 2018.
~ Jason
Jason joined the fellas at NRL Boom Rookies to preview the New Zealand Warriors 2022 NRL season 👇
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Addin Fonua-Blake
I know he’s already an established NRL player with 100+ first-grade games to his name, but hear me out.
For whatever reason, Warriors players are constantly disregarded by Australian mainstream media when it comes to rugby league discussion. Tohu Harris for example is a guy who was consistently left out of ‘Best # Players in the NRL This Year’ lists for seasons on end despite being one of the best middle forwards for years now.
But if the Warriors make the finals like I think (hope) they do in 2022, it’ll force the media to acknowledge Warriors’ players in their ‘Best of the Year’ debates – particularly Addin Fonua-Blake.
He averaged 55 minutes across 15 games last season for 160 average run metres, 33 tackle busts and 19 offloads, almost 400 tackles for 13 misses and a frankly outrageous 1124 total post-contact metres (average 75 metres per game).
Fonua-Blake has ranked in the top five players competition wide for average post-contact metres per game the last three years running. Let that sink in. He ranks alongside names like Payne Haas (widely regarded as the best young prop coming through), Jason Taumalolo (regarded by some as the best yardage forward we’ve ever seen), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (whose resume speaks for itself) and Brian To’o (the best winger in the game currently) in one of the key attacking stats used to measure a players’ impact.
Yet despite this, AFB barely rates a mention in ‘Best Prop in the Game’ discussions. Throw in his 95% tackle efficiency (equal best among props in 2021) and 20 offloads (16th most by a full-time prop) and you’ve got a fair player on your hands.
I’m hoping 2022 is the year everybody else notices.
Jason: Eli Katoa
Eli Katoa burst onto the NRL scene in 2020 but never really got going in 2021.
Reports out of the club over the summer have been good to hear, though.
Warriors assistant coach Justin Morgan has said Katoa has been ‘consistent with his training performance’ which is encouraging after an inconsistent 2021 season. Notably, Morgan also mentioned they have allowed him to “settle in on the right edge” after Katoa talked about wanting to play alongside Johnson.
Back rowers typically go to another level beside Johnson and Katoa has spied his opportunity to improve by asking to play on that side of the field. He’s going to be competing for minutes and possibly spelling Josh Curran out there so won’t see too much time on his preferred side but it all sounds good for Katoa at the moment.
His size, skill and work ethic are clear to see and he now has the player inside him to help blend them all together and into a top tier edge forward.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Chanel Harris-Tavita at five-eighth
Last week Jase and I talked for a good 10 minutes about how much we liked Harris-Tavita at five-eighth in this Warriors side. Jase also gave him a wrap on the NRL Boom Rookies podcast last week too. Since then, Harris-Tavita’s manager has announced that the young half is on the open market for the 2023 season.
I just don’t get it.
At 22 years of age and with 37 NRL games to his name, Harris-Tavita hasn’t set the world alight in his first-grade career so far. What he has done, however, is show that he’s got all the makings of a career half. His tempo, the way he engages the line before passing, his vision, his short kicking game and his defence are all reasons for the Warriors to persist with Harris-Tavita in the halves.
So is the return of Shaun Johnson in 2022.
With Johnson in the halves this year the Warriors have their on-field general. Johnson will steer this side across the park and construct situations where Reece Walsh, in particular, can be effective. It’s a role beyond the years of Harris-Tavita but one the Warriors have needed him to play throughout his career so far, and it’s hampered his development. In a second-fiddle role to Johnson, however, all of Harris-Tavita’s strengths will come to the fore.
He profiles as a better option than Kodi Nikorima or Ash Taylor to be the link man between Johnson and Walsh in attack. Despite this, it’s looking more and more like he will be somewhere else in 2023. That means my wish for this year – however unlikely it feels right now – is that Harris-Tavita gets an extended chance to shop his wares in 2022.
Jason: Rocco Berry
I’m expecting to see Rocco Berry named in the centres for Round 1 and hope to see his name stay on the team sheet until at least Round 8 or 9.
The centre position is an area the Warriors are desperately searching for a long-term option. Berry can be that option if he is given the time to work his way into it. Only 20-years-old with just eight games of NRL experience, Berry is raw. He didn’t play a lot of rugby league before joining the club out of high school either. He needs time on the field, repetitions in attack, and to learn the routine of a full-time first-grade footballer. Rotating him in and out of the squad won’t help given the inconsistent nature of the club’s partnership with the Redcliffe Dolphins.
Berry won’t play well every week. To expect a 20-year-old to be at his best every week is setting him up to fail. However, his good moments should afford him a few bad ones.
This is one of those good moments and the reason Brown should persist with Berry, at least early on in the year.
The movement before the pass, the skip to the outside, the flick pass out the back – lovely.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Aaron Pene ($287,400) – I’m not the only one who thinks the Warriors have landed a good one here. At 190cm and 107kgs Pene is very mobile and light on his feet for a big unit and I’m already tipping him to feature on a Big Hits highlight reel in 2022. Needs to carve out big minutes in a stacked Warriors rotation to be SuperCoach relevant but I’m not ruling it out. Watching closely.
Shaun Johnson ($462,000) – Ah, how the times have changed. Johnson was the whipping boy at the Warriors for so long but he’s been welcomed back a legend in 2022. Tries follow Johnson wherever he goes and he’s definitely worth the gamble at this price. At 17% ownership, it’s the worst kept secret in SC this season.
Wade Egan ($429,200) – I almost got through an entire Warriors bit without talking about my boy, but here we are. There is so much upside about Egan that I can’t leave him out of this list, but he’s a long way from making my squad at the time of writing.
Addin Fonua-Blake ($505,000) – Averaged 160 metres per game last year (76 in post-contact), broke 33 tackles and threw 19 offloads in a disrupted 2021 campaign. He’s got the best second stint in the comp and I’m backing him to go to another level in 2022. He’s in my side.
Eli Katoa ($353,600) – Word out of the Warriors camp is that the backrowers are all fighting over who gets to play next to Shaun Johnson on that right edge. Can you blame them? Katoa burst onto the scene in 2020 but we didn’t see close to his best last season. Playing with one of the best attacking halves in the comp should see Katoa’s form swing back the other way.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
Harris-Tavita + Nikorima + Taylor = ?
Right, so how is this all going to work?
The Warriors have three players all capable of filling the five-eighth jersey but can’t fit them all in the 17 every week.
We’re not going to see more than two of the three names on Tuesdays. It appears as though Kodi Nikorima will play beside Shaun Johnson in the halves with Chanel Harris-Tavita at fullback to start the year. The thought process behind playing Harris-Tavita at fullback so Dallin Watene-Zelezniak doesn’t lose one week of combination-building with his centre is ridiculous. For the purpose of this segment, though, let’s fast-forward to Round 2 when Reece Walsh returns to fullback.
Those that have followed Rugby League Writers for a little while won’t be surprised to hear Harris-Tavita is my preferred partner for Johnson in the halves. Nikorima shapes as an ideal #14 to carry on the bench, too.
If we look at playing styles, Harris-Tavita – and even Ash Taylor – profile as better partners for Walsh on the left edge. Where Nikorima makes his mark running the ball and searching for gaps (sounds like a good trait for a #14 running at tired forwards 🤔), Harris-Tavita and Taylor play straight to engage the defensive line which keeps the space for the likes of Walsh out wide. A crabbing Nikorima can cramp Walsh who thrives running downhill at a sliding defence.
Similarly, with Johnson and Walsh the primary creators, the Warriors don’t need another creative player. Instead, a complimentary piece – somebody who will straighten the attack and engage the line to create space out wide – looks the better fit. It’s where Harris-Tavita excelled in 2021 despite what Super Coaches might tell you when looking at his numbers.
The Warriors are removing Harris-Tavita who is one of the best defensive halves in the NRL for Nikorima, one of the worst, for creativity I’m not sure they need.
Having three capable partners for Johnson will have its benefits, but the temptation is going to be there all season for Brown to shuffle them around when the results aren’t coming. It’s crucial he gets it right in the early rounds.
Perhaps Nikorima is the answer and his attacking output can be enough to ensure he is still a net-positive after the tries conceded through that edge, but I have my doubts.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Warriors in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
7th: Let’s Gone!!! I don’t know if it’s just because I want to see the big fella smiling like a Cheshire cat in his awful retro Warriors jacket again, but I’ve joined Jase on the roller coaster that is supporting the Warriors in 2022. Shaun Johnson is exactly what they need right now to make the most of a monster pack. They’ll need to play close to their obvious potential but a finals appearance is a realistic peak for the Warriors this year. ~OP
Top 8: The Warriors have a Top 8 team within this roster. The forward pack can be one of the best in the NRL given their potential in yardage. While the backline is hardly inspiring, Shaun Johnson and Reece Walsh can create enough opportunities to manufacture points. As any regular readers might expect, my concerns lay in the coach’s box. ~JO
Pass
12th: With the squad he’s assembled, head coach Nathan Brown can’t afford to let his side slip on their 12th placed finish from 2021. There’s enough depth to cover an injury to just about anyone except maybe Walsh or Johnson long term and even then this pack should win the Warriors games in 2022. ~OP
10 Wins: The Warriors won ten games last season and should have won a few more. They lacked the quality and control late in close games and gave up a shot at 8th on the ladder as a result. I expect 8th will need to win more than ten games to play finals footy in 2022, but it’s the bare minimum for this squad. ~JO
Pit
Bottom 4: At this point, I’m taking a stab in the dark. It’s so hard to make out how those bottom few rungs on the premiership ladder will play out, but there is a chance the Warriors find themselves in the thick of it. It would be a horribly disappointing result given the likely departure of Reece Walsh (and potentially others) at the end of the year when the Warriors (hopefully) return to New Zealand. ~OP
14th: It may surprise a few people to hear that the Warriors have never finished the season holding the wooden spoon. They’re often in the preseason conversation, but have never actually finished 16th. I can’t see how that could happen this year with the quality they have in the middle and with Johnson playing behind it. They could very well be bad, but not that bad. ~JO