I always have a particular match, trend, team, or player in mind to focus on heading into each round of the NRL season. This week, I’m previewing the biggest game of the weekend.
These are meant to be short and sharp articles to introduce the weekend, but they can sometimes become full features. If you like what you see, pass it on or sign up for a Premium membership for only $5 a month to have The Short Dropout delivered straight to your inbox every week.
Recent:
- Why forwards don’t get back behind the ball
- Breaking down simple yardage sets
- Why don’t teams compete on a bomb?
- Getting nerdy over scrums
- How one tackle can have a big impact
The Brisbane Broncos made the 2023 NRL Grand Final but find themselves fighting just to make the finals in 2024. Meanwhile, the Dolphins played like a finals teams for the first half of the season before injuries and depth issues in the roster now have them also on the outside of the Top 8 and looking in.
It’s already a developing rivalry. Now the Dolphins and Broncos are playing to keep their season alive.
I’ve touched on a few of the deciding factors heading into Saturday night.
Katoa v Reynolds
This is a halves battle for the footy nerds who love looking for the finer details.
Isaiya Katoa and Adam Reynolds are two of the best halfbacks in the NRL but aren’t always recognised as such.
They don’t have the long-range efforts like a Mitchell Moses. They aren’t breaking into the backfield every week like Jahrome Hughes. They aren’t the overwhelming creative outlet of the team like Nicho Hynes.
Instead, Katoa and Reynolds are manipulators.
Despite the 14-year age gap, the two play somewhat similarly. That is a testament to Katoa’s development and Reynolds’s ability to prolong his career.
The pair have only thrown 10 try assists each this season. I don’t play SuperCoach or Fantasy NRL, but I don’t image either of them are partiularly sought-after halves at this point of the season. We need to look closer at what they add to the team and this is the perfect game to do so.
Katoa is doing things at 20 years old that halfbacks typically take years to develop. His deception is like nothing I’ve ever seen from somebody so young. I covered it back in Round 15 – and plenty of other times throughout the last two years.
For Reynolds, it’s always been a key feature of his game. He’s never been the fastest, strongest or most fleet-footed half in the NRL. Instead, Reynolds is one of the smartest. He knows the right reins to pull and doesn’t overplay his hand.
Reynolds will have his own individual moments, but what makes him great is his ability to identify the line and make the right play.
He doesn’t need anything flashy here. Engage the four-man with a lead inside three and there’s a good chance his outside backs are presented with a three-on-two situation.
This feels like a game of limited opportunity. It’s going to be decided by which halfback can make the most of their chances. It’s close, but the advantage goes to Reynolds at this stage of their careers.
Update: Reports have since come out that Katoa will start off the bench. It’s surprising to say the least. I’ll have to trust one of the greatest coaches of all time on this one…
The 22’s
Jeremy Marshall-King and Payne Haas have been named in the #22 jerseys for their respective teams.
This is a different game if one or both are involved.
So much hinges on Marshall-King’s availability for the Dolphins. He’s one of the most undervalued players in the NRL right now. His creativity out of dummy half is among the best in the competition. Marshall-King narrows the focus of the defence and holds up the ruck exceptionally well. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow hasn’t been quite at his best in recent weeks. While they might not link up together all that often, Marshall-King’s influence on the middle only helps Tabuai-Fidow on the edge.
Haas is the best prop in rugby league. Every game he does something that doesn’t make sense for somebody his size, even if it’s simply covering the field in defence after making back-to-back tackles. There isn’t a set that can’t be saved by a strong Haas carry. He would give the Broncos a massive boost.
However, I’d have Marshall-King providing the biggest boost to his side should both be available.
I still like the Broncos without him, though…
Meeting in the middle
Flow and shape can sometimes go out the window in times like these when forward packs are understrength. It’s all about running hard and straight. Run harder than the opposition, and you’ll go a long way towards winning.
It’s why Pat Carrigan is such a factor for me.
He’s a dual threat with the ball. The 26-year-old is averaging a career-high 174 running metres per game and has churned out 215+ in each of his last two. With the threat of him as a ball-runner in mind, Carrigan can cause havoc with the ball. He isn’t as deliberate with his passing as other middles. He sees cues in the line better than most.
It’s only one step out of the corner of his eye, but as Carrigan sees Dylan Brown motion to jam outside in on the edge, he knows the pass is out the back. Brown is in front of the defensive line and his four-man inside has a lot of work to do if he’s to close the space on Reynolds.
Carrigan is a workhorse in yardage and a major part of the Broncos good ball attack. Without Reece Walsh, his influence only grows and becomes more critical. With the older Dolphins pack that can struggle for mobility in front of him, this game is primed for Carrigan to dominate.
Verdict
The Dolphins have once again impressed this season, but I like the Broncos to get the job done here. They’re better positioned to deal with potential line-up changes whether either team fields a player wearing #22 or not.
Relatively even in the backlines, Brisbane’s advantages in the middle can be the difference. Reynolds can work his magic on the back of it.
While I’ve waxed lyrical about Katoa for two years, he does have some rookie moments in him. He’s not yet at a level where you assume he will manufacture a win late in a close game like Reynolds or Nathan Cleary.
Expecting a close game that could be decided by a single set late, Reynolds and the Broncos should keep their season alive for one more week.