We’re down to four teams left in the NRL for 2023. Harry Grant is the key for Melbourne being part of the last two.
How Grant’s running game can be the difference against the Panthers
Harry Grant was far from his best against the Brisbane Broncos in Week 1 of the NRL Finals. A “dog shit” Melbourne Storm struggled in general, but Grant’s performance stood out as particularly uncharacteristic.
He’s usually so calculated. Opportunistic. Against the Broncos, he forced the issue a bit and when you touch the ball 100 times a game and try a little bit too hard to create, it disrupts the timing of the whole team.
Against the Sydney Roosters in Week 2, however, we saw Grant at his best.
He finished up with 110 running metres in only 64 minutes while breaking two tackles and handing out a try assist. Grant produced the highlight moments we’re accustomed to seeing each and every week.
With a preliminary final now booked with the Penrith Panthers, I want to look at some of those moments and how they might translate into next week.
The Panthers middle is the best in the NRL. They front-load their energy in defence and make it difficult for teams to work out of their own end. Per Fox Sports Lab, they concede the fewest running metres in the NRL at 1,291 per game. They clog up the middle, force the opposition to kick from deep in their own end, and the back five controls the start of the next set allowing the Panthers forwards to focus their energy on defence.
A lot will need to go right for the Storm to cause an upset next week, and a lot of it will start with Grant’s influence around the ruck.
The Panthers defend with relentless linespeed. They’re constantly up and in the face of the opposition ball players, but they aren’t perfect. They will leave the odd triangle in the line or not get home to A in time to move up with the rest of the line. It’s in those moments where Grant can turn an arm-wrestle set out of yardage into one that ends with Penrith catching the ball on their own line.
James Tedesco doesn’t get his numbers wrong very often but I don’t think he wanted four on a very narrow short side here.
Spotting the defence overloaded to his right and a big forward wide at A on his left, Grant puts his head down and breaks through into the backfield. In a split second, one lapse in concentration from the defence allows the Storm to surge up the field. They don’t turn the line break into points, but they force an error to win one of the early exchanges in the second half.
I highlighted how he will look to play off Asofa-Solomona earlier in the week. Every good hooker is looking for defenders on the ground and I don’t think there is a player in the NRL that leaves more laying behind him than Asofa-Solomona.
Grant had ducked out from this spot below earlier and allowed Cameron Munster to play Justin Olam onto Sam Walker. That carry provided Melbourne with the momentum to win the set and kick deep into enemy territory.
He’s late to the ruck here but had a good idea of what he would be doing ahead of time. Victor Radley is still retreating from a tackle earlier and Grant knows that when Asofa-Solomona is charging, he’s likely to have an opportunity.
Hookers will often follow the slow man out of the ruck which is what Grant does here. Following Flecher Baker before taking the space left by a lagging Radley, Grant’s work around the ruck has the Storm moving forward.
Another big Asofa-Solomona carry on the 4th provides Munster with all of the time in the world to hang up a kick for his chasers to pin Jaxon Paulo on his line.
As we saw last week, Grant’s runs don’t always come off. Even in this game he slipped over on one and ran into traffic on two or three others. Still, if he’s making inroads often enough throughout a match, he stresses the defensive line regardless.
I don’t think Craig Bellemy would have drawn up a dart out of dummy half down the short side on 4th tackle with the game on the line, but Grant’s run ultimately plays a big role in Will Warbrick rising up and over Fetalaiga Pauga to score the winner.
With his threatening run from dummy half Grant brings eight Roosters defenders into one-third of the field. Pauga is all alone out on the wing. He’s isolated. There is no chance of a helpful escort or footsteps to throw Warbrick off his run.
Instead, the Storm are able to execute on a mismatch they likely had circled during the week. The kick isn’t perfect, but it doesn’t need to be. Warbrick wins the battle and Melbourne won the war.
Grant is the best hooker in rugby league. When he’s getting the balance right, things constantly happen around him. That balance will be crucial against the Panthers. If he can tighten them up around the ruck and allow the Melbourne edges to force the Penrith back five into making tackles rather than metres, it will go a long way to causing an upset. If the Panthers are loose at A and Grant is able to work the Storm up the field, Munster and company can kick from field position and put the Panthers back five under pressure from the second they catch the ball.
They’ve not been at their best throughout the 2023 NRL season but you can’t write the Storm off – even against a rested Panthers. A Grant blinder gives Munster more time. If Munster is dominating down the left edge, opportunities often open up for Jahrome Hughes on the right. They’re stacked with match-winning talent across the park, but I think Grant is the key. If he can cause the Panthers trouble like he did the Roosters, we’re in for a thriller at the very least.
Super Sandon
Grant wasn’t perfect and the second he slipped up in defence Sandon Smith pounced.
Minutes after running on the field, the super sub broke through the Storm defensive line and laid on a beauty for Lindsay Collins to score.
He has played a lot of fullback at New South Wales Cup level and is a dangerous runner of the ball. His experience in the halves set him up well to know exactly where the ball needed to go in this situation with his calmness under pressure evident in making the right pass.
The easy option is to find the halfback and play through the hands. However, as Smith spots Justin Olam rushing off his line looking to close down the shift before it has started, he floats it over the centre’s head for Collins who did a good job of moving while the ball was in the air for a big man.
Trent Robinson loves a utility on the bench and Smith fits the mould. Luke Keary is getting on in years with an opening at five-eighth likely to pop up in the next few seasons. With what we’ve seen in limited opportunities in 2023, I think we will see a lot more of Smith in 2024.