The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 2 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Good luck, Round 2.
We opened the NRL season with one of the most competitive rounds since 2016. Per LeagueEyeTest, the average margin after 80 minutes was just 8.25 points. This one looks like another tippers nightmare with the matchups looking likely to produce another close round of footy.
Let’s get stuck into a few things I’m keeping an eye on.
Thursday Night Footy Members Memo
Reece Robson’s Kicking Game
He was one of the players I randomly thought about in the week leading up to Round 1 due to his work off the ball and in defence, and Reece Robson is back for Round 2. This time, it’s his kicking game…
Number of times Reece Robson kicked the ball in 2022: 1
Number of times Reece Robson kicked the ball in Round 1, 2023: 2
Robson doubled his 2022 kicking tally last week. He forced a dropout and picked up a try assist in the process – an exceptional return on his two efforts off the boot.
The Cowboys set Robson up around the posts in both instances. They will be looking to open up the field for Chad Townsend or Tom Dearden to kick on the last, but being around the posts also works for Robson. With two players charging either side of the B defender, Robson is presented with a gap to kick through. The posts add another element for the defence to navigate, too.
These both occurred on the last tackle and in similar spots. Having only put boot to ball once all season in 2022, I’m keeping an eye on how often Robson kicks in behind, or even shapes to kick, this week against the Broncos.
Oscar talked more about hookers and how often we saw them burrow over from dummy half for NEDs earlier in the week.
Parramatta Eels Bench Rotation
Brad Arthur’s bench rotation has been a topic of conversation for a little while now.
It’s…different.
While Bryce Cartwright, Josh Hodgson and J’maine Hopgood played 84 minutes, and with Junior Paulo putting in an impressive 68-minute shift, Makahesi Makatoa was sat on the bench unused. Wiremu Greig played only 16 minutes with Jirah Momoisea slightly more at 24 minutes.
Things will change when Ryan Matterson returns. His ability to play in the middle or on the edge gives Arthur another big-minute option whether he starts or comes off the bench. Still, Arthur has some key middle forwards playing big minutes when he doesn’t really need to. He used only seven interchanges in Round 1…
Hopgood played a blinder in his first game for the club. He played the whole game, ran for 172 metres, distributed well through the middle, and made 57 tackles. The concern is in the team-high seven missed tackles and four more ineffective tackles – one coming late as Harry Grant darted over to score the winner.
Again, Matterson not being available will have had an impact. The two are interchangeable through the middle and likely to share time as the player providing middle service when the team is at full strength. However, with Matterson unavailable again this week, it will be interesting to see whether or not Arthur changes his approach to the rotation. Perhaps a ten-minute breather for Hopgood around the 55th minute is in order?
Hodgson Watch
I won’t harp on about him again. I’ve done enough of that already throughout the preseason and after what I thought was a very good performance in Round 1. Still, I’ll be watching Hodgson closely and paying particular attention (although it’s difficult to really know) to when he ignores his halves and takes control of the possession himself.
Similarly, the touches of the halves.
“Brown touched the ball 51 times after averaging 48.5 touches per game in 2022. Meanwhile, Moses cleared his 47.8 touches per game from 2022 with 55 on Thursday night.” – The Josh Hodgson Experience
Melbourne Storm Searching in Yardage Sets
Every team approaches their yardage sets a little bit differently. Some simply look to get to the last and a kick, the South Sydney Rabbitohs love to look for a 4th tackle offload to extend the play, and the Melbourne Storm look to the edges for easy metres.
It’s nothing new for Melbourne. When Ryan Papenhuyzen is at the back, they have a speedster that can move to both sides of the field and pop up in places others simply couldn’t get to given his pace. It’s a shame how little we get to see of this, but the Storm used this action regularly with Papenhuyzen at his healthiest last year (Round 1-9).
Despite Papenhuyzen not being there to start the 2023 NRL season, and by all accounts still some time away, they are continuing to run similar plays from similar spots.
The Storm hit the left edge fairly often when working out of their own end. Forcing right edge defenders into repeated efforts, they looked to compress the line before firing the ball wide and into space last week.
They started the shift around halfway as opposed to 30-40 metres out as they did in the above example, but the intended approach is roughly the same. On this occasion, Harry Grant crabs across the field and holds the middle defence up ever so slightly by shaping to drop two forwards back underneath. He finds Cameron Munster who quickly shovels the ball on, Jahrome Hughes preserves the space out wide, and Eli Katoa is given room to pick up easy metres.
Melbourne are back at it on the following set.
From the same spot and with Munster shovelling the ball on and Hughes using Katoa as a short option to straighten things up this time, Nick Meaney and Will Warbrick combine to get the Storm 25 metres up the field from where they started.
Craig Bellamy doesn’t have a monster metre-eater in the middle of the field like others. Instead, the Storm back five did a lot of the heavy lifting in Round 1.
Nick Meaney finished with a team-high 208 metres, Will Warbrick added 130 metres, Young Tonumaipea ran for 134 metres, and after averaging only 101 metres per game in 2022, Xavier Coates opened up 2023 with 192 running metres.
While they’re without Munster this week, the Storm are well-positioned to win the yardage battle against a Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs side that ran for the fewest metres of all 16 teams in Round 1 (1,409m). Cameron Ciraldo’s side averaged only 6.6 tackles defended inside their 20-metre line before conceding a try. If the Storm can generate enough opportunities to attack in good ball, they should find enough points to remain unbeaten after two rounds.
St George Illawarra Dragons Kicking Off 2023
The St George Illawarra Dragons were given the unfortunate role of Round 1 spectators as they sat at home for one of their two bye rounds this season. Coming into the season under pressure and following some unconvincing preseason performances, the players are no doubt itching to get out onto the field.
While it’s always a pleasure to watch Ben Hunt and I’m excited to see Jack Bird play for a decent period at lock, I’m most curious about Zac Lomax following his shift to the left edge.
It’s a strange decision for mine. He has an excellent right-hand carry and left-hand fend that is put to best use on the right side of the field. Whether it be in yardage or good ball, Lomax can always bring the winger into the play.
He has a banging right-foot step to beat sliding defenders back on the inside, too.
It’s a surprising move defensively as well. Teams tend to score more points through their left edge, so moving the superior defensive centre to the other side of the field is a risk. The Dragons conceded only 32% of their tries through their right edge last season per Stats Insider. Only the Sharks and Panthers conceded fewer than the Dragons total of 31. Moses Suli was excellent last season, but the pressure is now on him to keep those numbers up in 2023.
Lomax wasn’t at his best last season but showed enough glimpses to suggest he’s not far away. Perhaps the change of scenery from right to left is all he needs. Right now, though, it’s a head-scratcher.
NRL Media & Content: Around the grounds
You need to wade through a lot of weeds to find the good stuff sometimes. Here are a few pieces I’ve liked this week:
In winning their inaugural NRL match, the Dolphins have found a special kind of history – It’s a win that will be remembered for a long, long time. Nick Campton nailed the summary of it all for ABC.
“As the sun rises over Redcliffe, you have to understand how much this matters, because winning is the finest thing a team can do, so long as they can actually do it.”
Every current club’s first NRL try – In honour of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scoring The Dolphins’ first try, NRL.com found the first four-pointer for all 16 other clubs.
Tweed Seagulls: Cup gains and losses for 2023 – I’m back covering the Tweed Seagulls for the Hostplus Cup season. They’ve lost a couple in the middle, but The Prince of Piggabeen is back for another season and Jaron Purcell is an appealing addition.
A look at the numbers from the most competitive NRL round 1 in a decade – In stark contrast to what League Eye Test has been able to produce over the last few seasons, the numbers are worth celebrating.
“Funny that rugby league is more engaging when the teams the scores are closer because teams aren’t fatigued.”
NEDs NRL Punting Podcast – Oscar is back in at NEDs to preview Round 2 of the 2023 NRL season.