The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 17 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Dolphins wing defence
Not a lot went right for the Dolphins in Round 15.
The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles played one of those games they produce every so often to pile up the points and claim a huge 58-18 win at Brookvale.
There is a whole article that could be written on what went wrong but Wayne Bennett’s team list suggests one area frustrated him more than the others with Tesi Niu being dropped as the only notable form-based change.
Daly-Cherry Evans had a field day picking the Dolphins left edge to pieces and it largely centred around Niu’s movements. He was often behind his line and Cherry-Evans spotted it early for Jason Saab to score in the corner.
Niu needs to be up alongside Euan Aitken here. It’s 2nd tackle and the kick isn’t in play. He gives Reuben Garrick far too much time and space to make the pass and the Sea Eagles centre ices it.
The Sea Eagles looked to the kick on both sides in the second half as they caught both wingers out within five minutes of each other.
First, Niu is neither in the line defending run shape nor far enough back to fill the space for a kick. Take note of where Cherry-Evans is looking when he takes possession because it comes up again later. On this occasion, he puts in a perfect kick that sits up nicely for Garrick and the Sea Eagles are in again.
Five minutes later and Josh Schuster spots Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow defending in the line. There isn’t much Jamayne Isaako can do here. It’s early in the count and he is defending a short side raid. Still, it continues the trend of the Sea Eagles looking at that space early in the count.
Cherry-Evans executed again down the right edge later in the match and it starts off similar to the first kick try. He has eyes for Niu on the wing. Again, he sees him behind the line. This time, however, he throws a skip ball out to Garrick who beats Aitken thanks to the space Niu has provided him on the outside and Jason Saab scoots down the outside.
As much as I’ve liked the look of Niu with the ball and highlighted his underrated drive through contact, his defence has cost him his spot. He isn’t quick enough laterally and appears to be taking short cuts with how he’s positioning himself in the line. While his kick returns start the Dolphins sets well, they aren’t worth the number of times he’s causing defended set to end in points.
In his place for this week: Brayden McGrady.
Rugby League analysis
Have everything delivered straight to your inbox.
We try to provide the best on-field analysis in the game and want people to see it. Sign up for a premium membership and don’t miss out.
Introducing Brayden McGrady
Brayden McGrady will make his NRL debut against the Parramatta Eels in Round 17.
A relative stalwart at Queensland Cup level, McGrady has played 11 games for the Redcliffe Dolphins this season making it 57 appearances across three clubs in his five-year Cup career.
Playing alongside his cousin, The Prince of Piggabeen, Lindon McGrady, at Tweed Seagulls in 2017, 2018 and 2021, Brayden made the move to Norths Devils last year before landing at Redcliffe to start this season. With ten tries in 11 games this year and 55 tries in 57 games at this level, McGrady is no stranger to crossing the line.
McGrady doesn’t have quite the same power as Niu as a ball carrier but has found 139 running metres per game for Redcliffe this season. I’d imagine he is in there this week for his consistency and reliability more than anything else, though.
A sucker for Queensland Cup to NRL graduates, I’m excited to see him run out there on Saturday night.
More good NRL & NRLW reads
The demise of Twitter has made stumbling on good NRL content even more difficult so I think it’s important to share it around where possible. Here are a few things – sometimes not specifically rugby league related but lead me to rugby league thoughts – that I’ve read or listened to recently:
- The new and improved Fifita finding his feet in the Origin arena
- As New South Wales face oblivion, can James Tedesco summon greatness one more time?
- The most prolific referees in 2023 and team discipline
- Magic in the Maroons: Inside Slater’s set plays that have NSW on red alert
- State of Origin II, 2023 | QLD Maroons Press Conference | NRL
- QUICK WRAP: State of Origin, men’s game 2
- The legend of Lindsay Collins is the making of a special kind of Queensland State of Origin hero
- QUICK WRAP: State of Origin, women’s game 2
Ponga Watch
Shock: Regardless of the position, when Kalyn Ponga is able to spend a few consecutive weeks on the field, he performs like one of the best players in the NRL.
I’m still not sure what number I’d most like to see on his back, but I enjoy watching Ponga and the Newcastle Knights figure it out and am back with Ponga Watch for Round 17.
Given how much he trained at five-eighth over the summer I’m assuming he has carried some of that back into fullback. His ability to involve himself more in yardage appealed while he played five-eighth. Rather than defusing a bomb, returning a kick and spending a few tackles recovering while pushing up in support through the middle, he could look for opportunities in the defensive line and pounce.
While he is still required to do plenty of the leg work in yardage at fullback, it seems as though he is using the times he doesn’t return a kick to pop up on the edges.
He’s had a lot of success running this shape from this spot already this season.
It’s going to be interesting to see how often the Knights work to the edges in yardage. The Penrith Panthers are the best defensive team in the NRL. They concede only 12.6 points per game (1st) and 1,320 running metres per game (2nd) per Fox Sports Lab.
The Panthers limit their opposition in yardage with their line speed. They make things difficult in the middle and by working hard to slide to the edges. If the Knights are to have any success getting up the field, it will be by changing angles out wide and isolating Ponga onto single defenders in space.
Perhaps the Panthers look to contain Ponga’s involvement in yardage by kicking it straight to him?
Every team claims a next-man-up approach. There is always a body ready and willing to step up as a replacement. It’s whether or not they can do so within the system that sets the top teams apart from the rest and the Panthers prove time and time again that what they do throughout the week, regardless of who is named for the weekend, is designed for the whole roster.
Other NRL Notes
- Sean O’Sullivan is named in the Dolphins reserves. While he may not feature this week, his return will change things up. Isaiya Katoa is locked in, but where does Kodi Nikorima fit? He’s been excellent at times with O’Sullivan on the sideline and provides a spark they’ve often needed.
- Nelson Asofa-Solomona has spent a considerable amount of time on the edge over the last 18 months but this is the first time he’s been named to start there this season. He’s dangerous with the ball running at smaller defenders. The concerns are in defence.
- What even are the Sea Eagles? They smashed the Dolphins last week and made it look easy at times. The trend of this season suggests they’ll be on the wrong end of a smashing this week…
- Reuben Garrick looks comfortable with the ball in the centres. He will have Justin Olam in front of him on Saturday.
- Ethan Bullemor is starting his third consecutive game on the edge. He’s producing the form many have expected for a while now.
- What now for the Titans? Justin Holbrook has left the club out of no where leaving them with a caretaker for the rest of the 2023 NRL season. I don’t expect much to change this week – that would be silly. Still, we might start to get an idea of what Des Hasler has in mind provided he is somewhat involved from a distance.
- Jayden Campbell is back on the bench…
- He should have been there in Game 2 but Campbell Graham will surely play himself into a Blues jersey this week.
- Jason Taumalolo mentioned he was sucking in the big ones towards the end of his return match last week. That didn’t stop him from a barnstorming carry late, though. His second stint used to be must-watch TV and he showed glimpses of that role in Round 16.
- Luke Keary has been named.
- I’ll be watching Seb Kris closely in this one. He’s had some fine moments at fullback, but opposition teams may have started to figure him out defensively. Is Xavier Savage still part of the equation? He doesn’t even have the #1 reserve grade jersey locked down at the moment…
State of Origin Reaction
Your strike centre goes off in the opening minutes causing a reshuffle. You can:
a) Put a hooker with no centre experience in his position, play your big minute prop 32 minutes, your bench prop 12 minutes and not put one of the best middles in the game (and one that has performed in the centres in the past) on the field until the 48th minute with your side 16-0 behind.
b) Move Murray into the centres and rely on the two best big-minute forwards in the game to play those big minutes with a fresh prop on the bench and the ability to play Reece Robson in the middle when Cook moves into dummy half.
Blues coach Brad Fittler went with option a. Remarkably, it was planned from the start.
“I spoke to Cookie about that could happen, that he would have to play centre if we had someone go down,” Fittler said after the match.
“I thought he did a great job, Cookie.”
When Cook ran onto the field and pointed Stephen Crichton to the right edge I didn’t think too much of it. Fittler made the right move by not having Cook defend on the side David Fifita would be running and I assumed it was a temporary solution with Cook to end up at dummy half at the break if not earlier.
That wasn’t the case and the Queensland Maroons took advantage.
Centre is a difficult position to defend and not one you can learn in a single camp. Shortly after halftime, Queensland made the most of Fittler’s lack of changes and went a long way to putting the game beyond doubt.
It’s important to note the work of Queensland throughout the game. They were excellent and probably would still have won Game 2 even if Fittler and the Blues nailed everything. However, they were given a helping hand and Valentine Holmes’ second try sums up both Queensland’s execution and New South Wales’ mistakes in planning and rotation.
Reuben Cotter and Patrick Carrigan do an excellent job of tying up the middle to widen the gaps on the edges and make things more difficult for even the most experienced outside backs in defence.
Here, you’d typically see the marker push onto the hooker, A defender hold on the lead and the B defender skip out onto the runner out the back.
Instead, Cotter takes the ball, steps off his left foot and engages both Blues defenders himself before shifting the ball out to Carrigan. They’ve created the space by compressing the middle, and Cook’s inexperience at the position has him back on his line, shaping to clean up a kick that is never coming.
Late to join up with Jarome Luai inside him and Josh Addo-Carr outside him, Cook is in no position to defend anybody leaving Addo-Carr to jam on the attacking player three-in from the sideline.
Queensland executed the play to perfection, but it’s a play they shouldn’t have been able to plan for so easily. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they thew this at the New South Wales two minutes after the break having had an opportunity to talk through what is in front of them.
It captures how the Maroons won this game, and, really, Fittler’s time in charge of the Blues.
