The 2023 NRL season all comes down to this as the Penrith Panthers take on the Brisbane Broncos in the Grand Final.
Here we are…
Grand Final Day.
One game remains of the 2023 NRL season and after 30 weeks, it’s fair to say that the two best and most consistent teams will meet in the decider.
The Penrith Panthers, win or lose on Sunday, will be regarded as one of the best teams in NRL history. There is every chance the dynasty will continue next year, too. Now four years in we’re running out of ways to describe their dominance. Sometimes you can only sit there and applaud.
It’s only just getting started for the Brisbane Broncos. Left holding the wooden spoon only three years ago, they’ve become the most watchable team in the competition this year. They’re exciting, play with flair, and the personalities on the team make for heroes and villains depending on which side you fall on.
It seems like we say it every year but this has the makings of an all-time classic NRL Grand Final. The two teams lead the competition in scoring and their respective approach with the ball contrasts in a way that should produce a ripper 80 minutes.
Styles make matches and we’ve got Penrith’s patience up against Brisbane’s speed in this one.
Strap yourselves in.
Panthers patient in the grind
The Penrith Panthers average more points per game than the Broncos, but they don’t want to get into a shootout. Reece Walsh and the Broncos are scoring from everywhere at the moment and if they’re given enough opportunities to throw the ball around and play at speed, they’ll pile up points. Instead, the Panthers will be best to slow the game down. Get it into a grind early to win it late.
Leading the NRL in possession with 54% per game, the Panthers suffocate their opposition. They’re consistent in defence and patient in attack.
We’ve seen them do it time and time again.
Kick to corners, back the defence to pin the opposition in their own half, use the back-five to start the next set with the ball, and patiently wait for an opening.
In stark contrast to the Broncos, the Panthers make an NRL-low 9.1 errors per game. They force the most dropouts at 1.9 per game and, as a result, average more tackles inside the opposition’s 20-metre line than any other team. Their 36.5 tackles in the red zone are almost a full set more than the Raiders at second.
In defence, they conceded the fewest running metres and, as has been the case for years, the fewest points at only 12.4 per game.
I covered the quintessential Panthers set ahead of their Preliminary Final against the Melbourne Storm. I’d expect much of the same for the most part but do expect them to look to play through the Broncos more than they might other teams. Again, Brisbane’s speed is a factor. They’re strong defensively on the edge and recover well on a scramble. Their back rowers work hard while Kotoni Staggs and Herbie Farnworth are two of the more reliable defending centres in the NRL.
Instead, and we saw it in Round 12, I think the Panthers will look to change the angle of their attack, drop players underneath, and look to stretch the line and strike through the middle.
The wider pass is there for Nathan Cleary is he wants it in this sequence but he instead turns it under to a dropping Stephen Crichton.
It doesn’t look like much but it makes things difficult for the fullback. On this occasion, the Broncos don’t get their line right. They have five players around the ruck and nine inside the posts. Jordan Riki is under the sticks which is a classic sign of a stripped line.
Knowing Riki will want to slide as quickly as possible to make up the space, Cleary sells him a dummy and skips straight through the line. By not coming off square, Riki can’t adjust his body to make an effective tackle and Cleary’s plan comes off to perfection.
It may take two or three sets for the opportunity to show, but the Panthers are happy to wait. As good as the Broncos have been in defence throughout the NRL season, Penrith are relentless. One carry is all it can take to win a set. One moment can concede points.
They’ve been doing it for years so there is little reason to think the Panthers will move away from what has worked. Against this Broncos team who can chance their arm at risky moments, the opportunities will come if Penrith remains patient.
NRLW Grand Final: Deciding Factors
“The bookies have the Knights as comfortable favourites but I’m not ruling out another defensive showing from the Titans again this week. Their performance against Sydney in the preliminary finals was one of the best I’ve ever seen across the NRL or NRLW in a finals game and they’ve got the systems to trouble Newcastle in this one.”
Broncos finding the balance
The Brisbane Broncos attack is at its best when playing at speed. From Reece Walsh to Payne Haas, they have speed across the park and can pounce on any opportunity the opposition gives them.
They force the odd pass. Like the Sydney Roosters of 2018 and 2019, they’re happy to make an error ‘playing footy’ given how often those passes stick and turn into points.
While the Panthers make the fewest errors in the competition, the Broncos are among the most at over 11 per game. It would be a mistake for the Broncos to go into their shell and not move the ball. No team has been able to consistently beat the Panthers at their own game.
They need to get the balance right, though.
We saw them make a costly error out of yardage when the two teams last met in Round 12. The sort that came from a pass they probably don’t need to throw on Sunday.
It starts with a pin-point Nathan Cleary kick and a typically strong kick chase.
The Broncos are in trouble now. Penrith’s line is set, and while Brisbane does like to take a shot down the short side from these positions, it’s relatively clear where the ball is going. Two more difficult carries off the line have them only 15 metres up the field on the 3rd tackle.
Looking to take the easy way out, they move the ball wide. This is classic Panthers, though. They move up quickly on the edges and are well-prepared to shut these actions down at the best of times. Where the Broncos perhaps should have kicked early or simply completed the set before looking to win the next one in defence, they hand the ball over inside their own 20-metre line.
The Panthers took the freebie and turned it into points.
Notably, Adam Reynolds didn’t feature in this one and he will provide a calmer head in difficult times. Still, when and where the Broncos decide to move the ball will play a big part in the result – good or bad.
In throwing 25 offloads last week, the Broncos certainly didn’t let the occasion determine their approach. I think they need to pick their moments and be a bit more selective in the Grand Final, though. Errors, especially in yardage, are a killer against the Panthers.
NRL Grand Final Prediction
As usual, my feeling towards the game has changed throughout the week.
Last year I managed to talk myself into the Parramatta Eels being a chance…
I’ve gone the other way this time around. Higher on the Broncos to start the week, I can’t look past the Panthers defence and how well it shapes up against what the Broncos will want to do.
I looked into how they could shut down Walsh for NRL.com earlier in the week, and by the end, my tip firmly sat with Ivan Cleary’s side. Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary, in particular, will play a massive role defensively. They regularly lead the line speed in defence on the edges and that will be crucial to shutting down Brisbane’s spreads and Walsh’s speed. If there is any pack that can contain Payne Haas, Tom Flegler and Pat Carrigan, it’s the Panthers.
The Broncos attack is the most dangerous in the competition but the opportunities will be few and far between against the Panthers defence. They’ll need to ice them early to apply pressure. The longer this one is a low-scoring and slow grind, the better for Penrith.
It wouldn’t be a shock to see Brisbane cause an upset. If they are within six points towards the end, they’re always a chance of finding a late winner. However, it becomes a bit of a trust exercise when you have two really good teams with little between them going head-to-head in a Grand Final. Naturally, I trust the Panthers more in this spot right now.