State of Origin is here for 2022 so Oscar and Jason have dug into both team lists, predicted their attacking profile, and picked where it will be won and lost in Game 1.
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New South Wales Blues State of Origin Preview
Team list analysis
1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Kotoni Staggs, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Payne Haas, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Tariq Sims, 13. Isaah Yeo, 14. Stephen Crichton, 15. Liam Martin, 16. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 17. Ryan Matterson
There’s some questionable selections (and omissions) in this list but overall the New South Wales Blues have selected a strong and deep squad for Game I.
Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic are huge losses but the Blues are stacked with centre talent in 2022. Jack Wighton has been named to start but it’s looking and feeling more like Stephen Crichton gets the gig – that’s good for NSW. Crichton has looked ready for Origin for 12 months now and has the benefit of an existing combination with Penrith teammates Brian To’o, Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary among others.
On the other edge, Kotoni Staggs’ defence – the one question mark we had over his validity as a rep player – has significantly improved over the last few months and it’s no coincidence that’s happened while playing in a winning team. Put good players around other good players and they’ll inevitably perform, and Staggs is well positioned to make his Origin debut this week.
Most of the pack picks itself, although I wouldn’t begrudge Manly or Souths fans for thinking Haumole Olakau’atu or Keaon Koloamatangi deserved selection over Tariq Sims in the backrow. There’s also the argument that a side missing Dale Finucane could really use a guy like Jake Trbojevic, but with the two best locks in the game already in the squad the Blues have good depth through the middle.
The other major talking point is the absence of Josh Addo-Carr. If we focus on the positives, Brad Fittler now has two of the best yardage wingers in the game to get the Blues out their own end. He’s also got a guy in Daniel Tupou who Cleary can target in the air with his boot. Tupou won’t let anyone down in Game I.
Damien Cook is rightly the first choice at hooker but I like Api Koroisau’s selection in the squad. Both hookers allow New South Wales to play a very different style – a power/momentum game through the middle with Cook whereas Koroisau is a guy who can orchestrate points on the line by isolating big forwards – think Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Payne Haas – onto smaller defenders. I won’t be surprised to see both hookers get some minutes in this series – particularly if the Game I game plan doesn’t work out.
The rest of the spine picks itself. James Tedesco was never going to be replaced at fullback while Isaah Yeo, Cleary and Luai give the Blues the best clubland-to-Origin combination since Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk.
If there’s question marks anywhere in this squad it’s in the backrow.
Cameron Murray is elite but he’s not a strike edge forward while Sims has started in the backrow for St. George-Illawarra just six times this season. They both offer different qualities on the edges and I’ve got a theory as to how Freddy might use them on Wednesday night.
Predicted Profile
New South Wales primarily used their edge forwards as decoy runners in last year’s series.
With Mitchell and Trbojevic demanding possession in attack outside of them, Sims’ and Murray’s main job was to hold up the defence and create space for their strike centres.
Like everything else he does, Murray’s hole running is precise and he’s a genuine option for Cleary here as he scans the defence. Tedesco lurking out the back of Murray’s perfect decoy line is all too much for Queensland who jam in, leaving Trbojevic a clear passage to the try line.
Staggs and Crichton are attacking threats in their own rights and while I think we’ll see Cleary give Staggs in particular plenty of early ball in Game I, I’m looking for NSW to use their backrowers a little differently this time around.
Murray has one of the quickest play-the-balls in the competition and I think New South Wales might use that ruck speed to trigger short side raids. This example from last year’s series is a little more opportunistic than what I’m talking about, but the principle is the same.
A nice face ball from Cleary gets Liam Martin at Cameron Munster’s outside shoulder and invites Kurt Capewell (centre) into the tackle. That strips the short side for numbers and forces David Fifita (backrower) to fill in at centre on the following play. With a quick play-the-ball, Tedesco jumps out from dummy-half and wins the favourable matchup against Fifita to put Addo-Carr over in the corner.
This is an action Murray can trigger as well as any backrower in the comp.
Cleary is elite at pitching his forwards into favourable areas in the defensive line which will allow Murray to find his front and play the ball quickly. From there, the Blues have the ballplayers – Tedesco or Cleary – to orchestrate a short side shot and strike outside backs – Staggs and To’o – who are awfully hard to stop this close to the line.
Blind-side trick shots aside, I think we’re going to see much of the same in 2022.
They dominated last year’s series with a power game through the middle and Freddy’s squad looks well equipped to replicate this in 2022. They’ve got ballplayers who love playing over the ad line (Yeo, Cleary, Tedesco), a dummy-half who can run (Cook) and forwards who can generate ruck speed and/or second phase play:
New South Wales planning on throwing a few offloads in Game I is either the biggest wool-pull of the series or the worst kept secret in rugby league. Ryan Matterson, Paulo, Haas, Murray, Yeo and Tedesco are all good for an offload, while Cook and Tedesco himself are two guys perfectly equipped to capitalise on some second-phase play around the ruck.
We’re used to seeing teams shift it quickly from an offload but I won’t be surprised if New South Wales persist with searching around the ruck if they can promote the ball in the tackle.
This action has Origin written all over it. A half playing deep into the line, wearing a shot and finding the space back in behind the ruck is an action I think Cleary and Tedesco might have some joy with in this series. The Roosters put this together following a quick play-the-ball but there’s potential for this to work on the back of a late offload, too.
Where it will be won
We aren’t going to see a blowout score like we did in Game I last year.
Billy Slater has picked a far better squad than Paul Green did (or was afforded to do) last year while the absence of Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell significantly levels the playing field in 2022. That pair combined for eight tries and three assists last series – 11 try involvements in three games of footy. New South Wales have chosen some fair replacements but there’s no replicating that kind of attacking output.
In what’s likely to be a grittier contest, I think Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary can be the difference for the Blues in Game I. It’s no coincidence that the only game the Blues lost last year was with Cleary on the sidelines. He’s the best halfback in the NRL and Yeo is a guy who can get him the ball exactly when and where he likes it most.
Cleary’s ability to build and absorb pressure with his kicking game is unrivaled.
Daly Cherry-Evans is in some rarefied form with the boot right now but Cleary’s long- and short-kicking game is first-class. Coupled with a forward pack that looks well equipped to win the territory battle and generate some second-phase play, Cleary should be kicking from good positions on Wednesday night. If he’s kicking long expect him to turn Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates around and in good ball he can force repeat sets or kick to Crichton or Tupou on the edges.
It’s death by a thousand cuts with the Penrith halfback and I’m expecting him to do the same for the Blues on Wednesday night. On the back of Cleary’s kicking game and Yeo’s distribution through the middle the Blues will get their share of attacking opportunities in Game I, and even without ‘Trell and Turbo they should have enough strike to make it count.
~ Oscar
Queensland Maroons State of Origin Preview
Team list analysis
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Val Holmes, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Xavier Coates, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Felise Kaufusi, 13. Reuben Cotter, 14. Harry Grant, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Pat Carrigan, 17. Jeremiah Nanai
The Queensland Maroons have named an interesting blend of youth and experience for the 2022 series opener. No doubt desperate to put up a bigger fight than they did in the previous series while also preparing for the next, new coach Billy Slater hasn’t made too many outlandish selections for his first series in charge.
Leaving David Fifita out is a head-scratcher. Still, an injury to the backrower perhaps helped Slater make the decision for him. The squad is otherwise as expected for the most part. The backline is flashy, the spine full of points, the pack hard-working and the bench versatile.
Selwyn Cobbo is somewhat of a surprise inclusion. He is still early into his NRL career and didn’t look entirely comfortable under the bright lights to start. The Daily Telegraph rightfully pointed out that Cobbo leads the NRL with 25 errors this season. They did, however, fail to mention that 19 of those came in the first six rounds. He’s a different player to what he was two months ago and Slater has selected the more recent version.
Ben Hunt’s missed tackle numbers have also rated a mention. He leads the NRL in missed tackles through 12 rounds. Missed tackle numbers can often be misleading, and to make them less relevant in this context, Hunt is moving into the middle where he will be packed in between two big forwards to help him in contact. Still, seeing Hunt’s name in the #9 jersey came as a surprise. While the idea around sending Harry Grant onto the field when there is some fatigue in the opposition’s legs has merit, the game was gone at that point last year. The Maroons need to start strong and put the Blues under early pressure. Grant is the one to do that with his scheming around the ruck.
Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai provide Slater with different options off the bench. At the very least, both are capable of providing instant impact. Carrigan is playing the best football of his career and has excelled as both a ball carrier and ball player for the Broncos this season. His likely rotation with Reuben Cotter ensures the Maroons play with pace and variation through the middle throughout the full 80 minutes. Meanwhile, Nanai is already a top attacking threat in the NRL. His minutes may be limited depending on the game state, but if Queensland are in search of points late in the piece, he will be an option for Slater off the bench.
Predicted Profile
The makeup of the Queensland pack suggests they’re going to take a classic Origin approach to this one and keep it relatively tight.
Josh Papalii and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui only know one way and will complete the tough carries through the middle. On the edges, neither Felise Kaufusi nor Kurt Capewell are game breakers. Instead, they will make their impact by running hard lines and look to hold up the defence on the occasions the Maroons do look wide.
Reuben Cotter and Patrick Carrigan can provide the link on long-side shifts and slot in at pivot. However, it’s their work short around the middle that can be most dangerous. You can see here how Carrigan’s threat as a runner allowed him to isolate Payne Haas onto a single defender before the big prop released an offload.
Cotter can provide a similar touch and with Papalii’s offload ability in contact, expect the second-phase to be a big feature of Queensland’s yardage game once they work through the early arm-wrestle.
With the hard work done in the middle, the Maroons aren’t short of attacking options out wide. The combination between Kalyn Ponga and Cameron Munster on the left edge is particularly exciting.
Ponga has spent time on both sides of the field for the Knights this season. However, he is still his most dangerous down the left edge and how he works with Munster to dominate short sides will play a big part in how Queensland uses the ball. Both look their best when getting downhill one off the ruck and attacking retreating defensive lines. They can beat the defence with their feet or with a pass, and one running off the other won’t give the Blues defence time to settle.
I picked out this near-try for the Knights a couple of weeks ago and it’s an action the Maroons will surely try to emulate.
Ponga takes the ball off the ruck and runs straight at the A defender before skipping outside and creating the space out wide. The defence sits on their heels when Ponga is in this spot and that provides Bradman Best, on this occasion, with the space to move.
The Knights then settle it back to the left tramline. Now just imagine Ponga sweeping back around to the open side and forcing James Tedesco into making a difficult decision both for himself and his teammate peeling out of the tackle.
Munster then slots himself into the short side and Queensland’s dangerous left edge runs at them again.
Where the Blues are likely to plan their attack around moving the ball wide and stretching the defence, the Maroons are best-placed to play short and sharp. Both Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans look for opportunities to swing around the ruck, and with Carrigan or Cotter available to take the ball at first receiver on the long side, it is likely to be a hallmark of the Queensland attack alongside their aerial raids directed towards Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates out wide.
Where it will be won
The opening exchanges are hugely important for Queensland. Blown off the park in Game I last year, the series was over shortly after it began.
We’ve covered Queensland’s potential to offload the ball and setup for short side raids already, but none of that will be possible without first laying the platform through the middle.
How Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Josh Papalii impact the game from kickoff will determine a lot of Queensland’s fortunes on the night. Fa’asuamaleaui, in particular, has been outstanding in a terrible Titans side this year.
The longer the two teams stay close on the scoreboard, the better Queensland will get in this one. While the Blues have made a habit out of looking to start strong and blow the opposition off the park early, the Maroons are more likely to engage in the grind and look to wear their opposition down.
Strong carries, a low error count and line speed will be the focus to start. From there, and perhaps it lines up with Grant’s introduction to the game, Queensland can be a little bit more expansive and turn the fatigue in the opposition defence into dangerous short side raids.
~ Jason