Through 12 rounds of the 2022 NRL season, it’s time to check in on all 16 clubs and their prospects heading into the second half of the year.
We’re now halfway through the 2022 NRL season.
That period of the year where any team playing poorly or surprisingly well can be dismissed with “it’s early” is over. We’ve got a good read on most teams at this point and that means expectations are starting to change.
We assigned every team a peak, pass and pit in our 2022 Season Previews.
The peak is all things going well. As you’ll soon see, some peaks were more optimistic than others.
The pass mark is fairly self-explanatory – anything lower is a disappointment.
Pit, well, a few things can contribute to this but the idea is that it couldn’t go any worse.
I’m now looking back on all 16 teams, how they’ve played so far in 2022, and reassigning a few goals and expectations for the second half of the season.
Brisbane Broncos
Peak: Top 8 Pass: 10 wins Pit: Bottom 4
The Brisbane Broncos signing Adam Reynolds signalled a change in fortunes. In a side so young that has shown plenty of potential but lacked direction in recent seasons, Reynolds looked like the perfect fit. As it turns out, he has been better than perfect.
It can’t all be attributed to Reynolds. Payne Haas, Tom Flegler, Corey Jensen and Pat Carrigan have been excellent in the Broncos middle to start this season. After finishing 14th in yardage in 2021, the Broncos are up to 7th in 2022 and laying a strong platform for Reynolds to dominate behind. There is also the fact the Broncos have won their last two games without Reynolds on the field. Still, he has been the catalyst to this start and is the leader and organiser the Broncos need to ensure it is maintained across the whole season.
The Broncos should make the Top 8 from here. While it may have been a rather lofty expectation to start the season, anything less than a Week 1 Finals fixture will be a disappointment. They’re still a rebuilding side and one planning for the future, but getting this finals monkey off their back is where they need to start before looking to make a genuine premiership push in the coming years.
Canberra Raiders
Peak: 6th Pass: 8th Pit: 11th
Finishing 11th looked beyond the Canberra Raiders a month ago.
With only two wins after eight rounds, even Ricky Stuart started to be mentioned as a coach under pressure. Things must be going bad if his job security is being discussed. Poor in yardage, riddled with errors and inconsistent in defence, the Raiders became part of the wooden spoon discussion.
However, with wins over the Bulldogs, Sharks and Rabbitohs along with a hard-fought loss to the Eels in Round 12, the Raiders are once again pushing for a spot in the Top 8.
Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii have been excellent through the middle. The Raiders are 2nd in the NRL in offloads with 12.8 per game. Unfortunately, we’re limited to basic offload numbers and aren’t blessed with the numbers telling us how many go to hand and the yardage generated behind them. The eye test tells me they’re starting to stick a little bit more now, though.
The Raiders are getting up the field through their back-three before Tapine and Papalii chime in on 3rd or 4th tackle. The improvement in yardage is trickling down into their attack and defence and translating into far better performances. Jack Wighton is playing well and while Jamal Fogarty struggled through his first game back from injury, it’s easy to imagine him making positive contributions when fit and firing.
The Raiders are in a logjam around the bottom of the eight. They’re on the up and have a rather friendly draw. I set the pass mark at 8th and that remains despite the unexpected path they have taken to get to Round 12 of this season. However, it feels as though we might look back on those first eight games and circle one or two of them as the reason why their season ends after Round 25.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Peak: 8th Pass: 8 wins Pit: Bottom 4
A lot needed to go right for the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs to even sniff the Top 8 this season. Big-name inclusions generated some buzz around their prospects ahead of Round 1, but you need more than a couple of good players to improve one of the worst teams in NRL history to the point they play finals football only a year later.
Instead, the Bulldogs have made little improvement. Their attack is diabolical and there is little to suggest that changes any time soon. While Trent Barrett is out of the building, Mick Potter has replaced him and made little difference with a lot of the same issues still clear.
The Bulldogs don’t do enough to engage the middle defence. Their sideways attack is predictable and easy to cover. At fullback, Matt Dufty pops up with the odd good moment but is a net-negative overall. Tevita Pangai Jr. is the best offloading forward in the NRL but seems to have been told to put it away in recent weeks to record only one per game in his last three. Josh Jackson is a workhorse and sets a good standard overall, but he’s not the ball-playing middle the Bulldogs are asking him to be at the moment.
Like too many seasons in recent years, we’re already in the ‘looking for positives moving forward’ portion of the Bulldogs season.
Aaron Schoupp, Jacob Kiraz and more recently, Jake Averillo in the centres, have been bright sparks. Jeremy Marshall-King looks like a genuine hooker after being crowbarred into the position. You can see how Matt Burton would be able to impact this team with the right pieces around him and Kyle Flanagan looks as though he could be one of those pieces if he can dig deeper into the line with the ball.
The Bulldogs are in a battle to avoid the wooden spoon, though. The odd individual moment of encouragement for the future won’t help them enough in 2022. Barrett’s departure hasn’t helped. The Dogs needed changes if they were to get their season on track and Potter doesn’t appear willing to make them. They’re only one win behind the Titans and Tigers at 14th and 15th, but those two teams have offered a lot more problems for their opposition in recent weeks. Avoiding another spoon is their only goal at this point.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Peak: 5th Pass: 8th Pit: 10 wins
Rather bullish on the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks to start the season, it’s been good to see their preseason plans play out on the field.
Plenty argued against Matt Moylan’s spot in the halves beside Nicho Hynes. However, the trio of fullbacks manning a slingshot attack has paid dividends for Craig Fitzgibbon. At their best, the Sharks are one of the best-attacking teams in the NRL.
It’s not too much of a surprise to see the “at their best” come every other week. They’re a new side still sinking their teeth into new structures and they’ve certainly struggled at times when the opposition forces them away from those structures.
Plan A for the Sharks is to crash the middle, generate a quick play-the-ball on 4th tackle, and fling it wide to where Briton Nikora and Teig Wilton are running hard inside lines for the outside backs to float out wide behind.
Plan B, well, I think they’re still working on that one…
There is a bit of the 2020 Eels about this Sharks side at the moment. They’re quite clearly a good side that will consistently beat those towards the bottom of the ladder. However, they’re also quite clearly a couple of steps behind the premiership contenders towards the top of the pile. Currently 7th on the NRL ladder, the Sharks should be able to maintain this spot which, three months ago, many thought was too high.
Gold Coast Titans
Peak: Finals, Week 1 Pass: 10 wins Pit: 10th-13th
The Gold Coast Titans look much like the same side they did last season.
That being one that can pile up points in a hurry but leak them just as quick, one that can struggle for long periods in attack with an overreliance on David Fifita to do something crazy, and one that lacks composure with a lead.
AJ Brimson, Toby Sexton and Jayden Campbell are still figuring things out as a trio. The Titans effectively have two fullbacks and an inexperienced halfback filling three key playmaking positions.
Brimson and Campbell have linked up together nicely at times. Campbell in more five-eighth-like positions feeding Brimson out the back of shape has a lot of potential as a weapon down the left edge. Campbell popping up at first receiver on the right side when the Titans run more of a split field has looked good, too. However, it’s all too inconsistent at the moment. Week-to-week and half-to-half, the Titans just can’t string together complete matches, and unlike last year, relying on individual moments of brilliance and ten wins won’t be enough to feature in the finals.
The Titans need to win seven of their last 12 games to hit the 10-win pass mark which should still be the goal. Stats Insider highlights the Titans’ remaining draw as the easiest in the NRL and one they need to make the most of moving forward. Reaching the finals again this season was always a big ask and looks beyond them already. Still, replicating their ten wins from 2021 will ensure they remain on the right track as they search for consistency across the field.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Peak: Premiers Pass: Preliminary Final Pit: Finals, Week 1
Obviously optimistic about the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles before the season kicked off, a lot of that optimism fell away even before Tom Trbojevic’s injury.
The Sea Eagles have looked better when playing without him this season than they did in the last. That in itself is encouraging. However, he didn’t lift them quite as much in the games he did feature in this year. Banged up, more of a focus for the defence and not being able to ride the waves of momentum and fatigue in the opposition negated some of Trbojevic’s impact.
Reuben Garrick has stepped into the fullback jersey and played well in recent weeks.
But ultimately, the Sea Eagles don’t have enough firepower elsewhere to make up the difference.
Haumole Olakau’atu has been a standout and his combination with Daly Cherry-Evans has added some much-needed variety. Josh Schuster’s return and Kieran Foran’s health can prop up the left edge attack well enough to beat the bad teams too.
But this season has become about 2023. Week 1 of the NRL Finals is the new peak for the Sea Eagles in 2022. Instead, a focus on development and planning for next season is where this side will be measured. They’re in desperate need of some talent out wide and Tolutau Koula could be it. Christian Tuipulotu is another Des Hasler should persist with throughout the remainder of this season. My tip for premiership smokies was always a big ask but Manly are no longer in the conversation.
Melbourne Storm
Peak: Premiers Pass: Top 4 Pit: 6th
The Melbourne Storm remain as one of the easiest teams to tip at the beginning of an NRL season.
Of course, they’re going to be good.
There have been a couple of hiccups along the way. They’ve not been able to keep up their ridiculous start to the season but there is a good chance they recapture that form before the end of it when Ryan Papenhuyzen returns and the State of Origin period is behind them.
Depth is a slight issue for Craig Bellamy this year. They’ve lacked punch in the middle at times without Christian Welch and Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Asofa-Solomona’s health is going to be a huge consideration come finals time when the Storm run up against the strong middle of the Cowboys, Panthers and Eels.
Otherwise, it’s the same ol’ Melbourne Storm. They can attack from anywhere on the field and in a variety of ways. Known for their long-range tries earlier in the season, the Storm averaged 1.42 points per tackle inside the opposition’s 20-metre line ahead of Round 12. No other team averages more than 0.97 points.
It’s another premiership or bust season for the Storm. Panthers are deserving favourites right now but Bellamy will expect nothing less. State of Origin isn’t usually a huge factor for Melbourne so we can’t read too much into the next few weeks. It’s Round 21 and beyond when they look to ramp up into finals football that we will start to see how close they can get to their scintillating early-season form. Until then, keeping healthy is more important than anything else for the Storm.
Newcastle Knights
Peak: 13 wins Pass: 8th Pit: 9th-13th
So, 13 wins looks as though it may have been slightly optimistic ahead of the Newcastle Knights 2022 NRL season.
Assuming an improvement in attack and a lot more polish around Kalyn Ponga’s new on-ball role, that improvement hasn’t come. Averaging only 17.9 points per game last season, the Knights have gone backwards with the ball to average just 13.3 points per game halfway through this one.
We see the odd glimpse of promising play. I highlighted their blueprint in attack ahead of Round 12. They scored this beauty against the Warriors with Ponga popping up in a spot he has done so much damage over the years too.
However, conceding 25 points per game (2nd most in the NRL) undoes a lot of the good work the Knights manage to achieve in a game. Their defence has gone downhill and dragged the attack down with it.
The Knights managed to sneak into the finals last year which papered over what are now obvious cracks in the side. Poor defensively, it’s the only area they should be focusing on for the remainder of the season. They can nail the attack and work things out around Ponga all they like. It will be for nothing without a significant improvement in defence. Winning 13 games is out of the question. They’ll need to win eight of their last 12 games just to be a chance at sneaking into 8th, too. Instead, Newcastle’s pass mark for the second half of the season should be set at an average of 20 points conceded per game or less.
North Queensland Cowboys
Peak: 8th Pass: 10 wins Pit: 14th-15th
2021:
19.2 points scored per game – 12th
31.1 points conceded per game – 16th
2022:
23.9 points scored per game – 4th
12.8 points conceded per game – 2nd
Tell me you saw this level of improvement coming from the North Queensland Cowboys and I won’t believe you. Setting them as a possible Top 8 team with 10 wins as the pass mark felt like a big call ahead of Round 1.
Twelve rounds later and some of the best defensive numbers in NRL history have translated into eight wins, Top 8 certainty, and premiership smokey status.
Todd Payten has done incredible things with this side. Their defence is only behind the Panthers as the best in the competition while their attack continues to pile up points every week. Their middle is getting the team up the field where Chad Townsend and Tom Dearden are employing a patient approach to the Cowboys attack.
Valentine Holmes is one of the form centres of the competition, Kyle Feldt and Murray Taulagi are scoring tries for fun, Peta Hiku has been excellent in his increasingly roaming role from right centre while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow can’t even crack the first-choice 17 with how well Scott Drinkwater is playing.
The Cowboys have exceeded every expectation set for them. Now halfway through the year, it’s time to reassess. The Panthers and Storm are ahead of the rest but we can’t rule the Cowboys out of a Cinderella run entirely. However, a Preliminary Final is an achievable goal and Week 2 of the Finals is now the pass mark. There will be some excitement build throughout the year, but 2023 is when North Queensland are more likely to make a genuine run at the Provan-Summons Trophy. Until then, developing cohesion, keeping things up defensively and earning some Finals experience is how they can best finish the year.
Parramatta Eels
Peak: Grand Final Pass: Finals, Week 2 Pit: 8th
The Parramatta Eels are in a funny spot at the moment. They’re not quite up there with the Storm and Panthers, but they are on their own in the next group of teams pushing for a premiership. At their best, and we’ve seen it against the Panthers and Storm this year, the Eels are premiership contenders.
The pack is somewhat underrated. Ryan Matterson’s form has been spectacular and Isaiah Papali’i has kept things up to still be one of the best edge forwards in the NRL. Reagan Campbell-Gillard is playing the best football of his career alongside the always-dangerous Junior Paulo. It’s out wide where the team list isn’t quite so convincing.
Injuries have played a part in the outside backs for Brad Arthur and the Eels. They’ve struggled to develop any cohesion on either side of the ball. Defensively, the Eels aren’t at a premiership-winning level conceding 21.1 points per game (9th-most in the NRL). Only one team in the last 15 years has won the premiership with a defence ranked outside the top three and the Eels have a lot of work to do if they’re to climb that high up the standings.
As the health of Parramatta’s outside backs improves, we will get a better idea of where they’re at defensively. A lot of their issues are currently being attributed to the turnover of players out wide. It definitely plays a part, but perhaps not as much as many think right now. They’re still breaking down in the middle and forcing those out wide to make quick decisions under pressure. Parramatta have it in attack to compete with the big boys in September. It’s how they develop defensively that will determine whether or not they can finally advance to the Preliminary Finals. Right now, finishing the season any earlier will be a failure.
Penrith Panthers
Peak: Premiers Pass: Preliminary Finals Pit: Finals, Week 1
Well, the Penrith Panthers are somehow still getting better…
Nathan Cleary is the key cog in Penrith’s juggernaut, but Isaah Yeo is one of the most influential players in the game right now. He has been superb throughout the 2022 NRL season. His game management while Cleary sat on the sidelines ensured they started the year well. Upon his return, the pair work in tandem to navigate the Panthers up the field before producing points in good ball.
The players around Cleary and Yeo know exactly where to be and when. They fall into shape at speed and know the points of the field they want to attack throughout a set.
As it stands, Penrith’s 10.7 points conceded per game will be the fewest per game in NRL history. Defence won them the premiership last year and they’ve improved upon that further in 2022.
It feels as though injury is all that can stop the Panthers this year. The doctors are clearly doing something right given how often they’re able to send out their first choice 17. Provided that remains the case through to October, the Panthers will become the second team in NRL history to win back-to-back premierships.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Peak: Premiers Pass: 16 Wins Pit: Finals, Week 2
I’ve changed my mind more than my undies on the South Sydney Rabbitohs throughout the first 12 rounds of the 2022 NRL season.
Setting their pass mark at 16 wins before Round 1, I saw a side that would obviously miss Adam Reynolds, but one that could produce enough in attack to navigate the regular season with relative ease before being one of those teams nobody wants to play in the finals.
More recently:
Now I’m somewhere in the middle.
Winning 16 games isn’t out of the question. They’ll need to win ten of their last 12 to do it, but they finished last season well and are expected to welcome back Latrell Mitchell in the next couple of weeks.
The confidence in an uptick in form and results comes from the numbers. The Rabbitohs generate 1,694 running metres (4th) and 34.7 tackles inside the opposition’s 20-metre line (2nd) per game. They are in position to score points. It’s the 13 errors and 72.4% completion rate that is hurting them. Unsurprisingly, their much-improved eight errors and 80% completion rate translated into 44 points in Round 12.
The Rabbitohs know where it’s going wrong. It’s an easy fix and one they appear to have been making in recent weeks. Add Mitchell to the mix and South Sydney are all of a sudden playing with one of the best spines in the NRL behind a pack that can drag them up the field. While they’re not the premiership darkhorse I thought they could be if it all went well this season, they’re a lot better than what we’ve seen through 12 rounds. This is still a Finals side and one that should be there in Week 2.
St. George-Illawarra Dragons
Peak: 9th Pass: 10 Wins Pit: 14th
The St. George Illawarra Dragons are a solid enough football side.
They started the season among the contenders for the wooden spoon, and while they lack superstar talent, the squad is laden with veterans who know how to win games. Enough to avoid 16th on the NRL ladder, at least.
Ben Hunt is a top tier halfback. His health has been the catalyst to their start to the season and will determine their future. Jack Bird, Jack de Belin, Matt Feagai, Blake Lawrie, Moses Suli and Zac Lomax have all displayed positive signs at times too.
Anthony Griffin’s selections often raise eyebrows. He’s moved players in, out and around the side to varying degrees of success. Those changes haven’t helped the Dragons develop any consistency in their performances and the lack of faith he’s shown in young players at times keeps their ceiling relatively low.
Still, the Dragons do a good job of beating the teams they should (Warriors twice, Knights, Tigers, Bulldogs) which will be more than enough to keep them well above 14th on the ladder and could get them up to the ten-win mark by the end of the season. Currently 9th on points differential, it still feels like the peak for the Dragons. The State of Origin period will be tough and the Rabbitohs and Raiders (currently either side of them on the ladder) are improving at a better rate.
Sydney Roosters
Peak: Premiers Pass: Top 4 Pit: 14 wins
The Sydney Roosters have been one of the toughest teams to read this season.
Poor to start the year in attack, Sam Walker and Luke Keary have taken longer than expected to iron out the kinks. What started as a relatively even split has since seen Keary take on a lot more touches than Walker.
It’s not Keary’s natural game to play the traditional #7 role, but the best halves adjust and he appears to be doing just that at the moment.
He’s getting the Roosters around the field and they’ve started to seek out opportunities down the short side a lot more in recent weeks. With Walker and Keary splitting touches earlier in the season, the Roosters played too laterally and the defence had no trouble covering them on the slide. It’s a different story now. Keary is passing players to spots on the field he wants them while Walker pops up as he sees fit. Joey Manu popped up in some interesting spots earlier in the season as well but seems to have refixed himself to the right side. Getting Manu into positions like this allows the Roosters to use him in five-eighth-like roles without needing him to float away from the right side.
The Roosters are stacked with talent – that much is obvious. While they’ve not started the season particularly well, I’m keeping the peak, pass and pit for the second half. The balancing act in attack wasn’t expected and just as they’ve started to hit form, State of Origin will take away key players. Still, the Roosters are one of the better defensive teams in the NRL and the attack has shown enough signs of life to anticipate a decent improvement before finals football kicks off.
New Zealand Warriors
Peak: Top 8 Pass: 10 wins Pit: 14th
The New Zealand Warriors have been dreadful this season.
It wasn’t too difficult to picture a Top 8 team when looking at the list on paper before Round 1.
Strong in the middle, the return of Shaun Johnson, continued development of some younger players and Tohu Harris returning halfway through gave life to the idea that the finals drought could possibly end. Of course, there was the Nathan Brown tax to consider. As it turns out, there’s a Mark Robinson tax too.
On and off the field, the Warriors are a disaster.
The game plan avoids their greatest strengths. When predicting the profile of the Warriors attack, I saw a dominant middle that should be able to blend their size, strength and subtle ball-playing into running metres. The Warriors are 14th in yardage averaging only 1,429 running metres per game. Without the platform being laid in front of them, the Warriors spine has struggled to produce. The sideways attack both in yardage and in good ball is predictable and easy to defend.
While the club has said they won’t be making a change in the coach’s box before the end of the season, it feels inevitable. Whether Brown is moved on before the end of the year or confirms he won’t be returning to NZ with the club in 2023, it appears increasingly likely that the Warriors will start next season with a different coach.
Assigning new goals and expectations is difficult for a club in limbo. Any improvements we see from a game plan and style perspective are largely wiped away with the introduction of yet another coaching staff. We’ve seen young players move in and out of the 17 this year, but it’s difficult to develop in a losing side. While the departure of Matt Lodge was followed up with the desire to develop young players, the club has since signed 32-year-old Dunamis Lui. The best thing the Warriors can achieve this year is getting the fan base back on side. Disillusioned and disappointed, they need to end this season in a position that inspires some hope ahead of 2023.
Wests Tigers
Peak: 11th Pass: 9 wins Pit: Wooden Spoon
Strangely, at 15th on the NRL ladder and with the coach again under pressure to keep his job, I’m more optimistic about the Wests Tigers now than I have been in years.
Running out with a quality halfback can do that to a side. So too can the fact that they’ve shown a lot of improvement this year already while Adam Doueihi sits on the sideline. Add Isaiah Papali’i and Api Koroisau to the side next year, and things are looking up for the Tigers.
The results haven’t been all that encouraging, but the performances have improved on recent years.
Jackson Hastings leaves his fingerprints on the side every week. Finally, the Tigers have a half that can order the team around the field and offer some guidance with the ball. It was never a strong point for Luke Brooks, and without the pressure, he has offered a lot more in attack this year.
The Tigers still leave a lot to be desired defensively. Their 24.8 points conceded per game puts them at 13th in defence. While the attack is on the up with Hastings involved, it’s in defence they need to improve if 2023 is to be the year Wests end the finals drought. They’re a win ahead of the Bulldogs and should avoid the wooden spoon. Those nine wins look to be out of the question, though. Instead, closing the gap in margin and improving defensively should be the focus across the second half of the season regardless of their final ladder position.