The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the Penrith Panthers fresh off lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy.
Penrith Panthers 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Liam Martin, Spencer Leniu
- Sections Wishlist: Luai of 2020, Floating Crichton
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: Doing it all again
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the Penrith Panthers 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
They were the team everyone loved in 2020 and the team everyone loved to hate in 2021, but no matter where you sit there’s no denying the quality of the Penrith Panthers this year.
Nathan Cleary was superb every time he took the field. It’s death by a thousand cuts from the 24-year-old halfback – his kicking game is the best in the business and his ballplaying and feel for the game is top shelf. He consistently took the right options in attack and ensured Penrith played from in front for most of the season.
James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo are two more notable members of Penrith’s premiership-winning squad in 2021. Both men led from the front every week and were arguably the best in the competition in their respective positions this season. It terrifies me to learn Fisher-Harris is still only 25 years old – he is going to be a premier prop for many years to come.
Tevita Pangai Jr was an astute pickup in a time of need, Matt Burton provided top-tier quality cover in the centres or halves and the likes of Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton and Jarome Luai provided moments of brilliance when needed.
The Panthers were well-deserving premiers in 2021.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Panthers attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
With the new six-again rule promoting a change in how the game is played, the Panthers adjusted perfectly.
Winning the middle has always been a key factor to success in rugby league and Penrith led the NRL in yardage with 1,805 running metres per game. That translated into a competition-high 31.5 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line per game. There was a patience to their attack most teams couldn’t muster with that many cracks at the line.
Happy enough to roll it into the in-goal and try again, Nathan Cleary finished the season with 25 forced dropouts (1st in the NRL) with Jarome Luai just behind him with 19 (2nd). The pair contributed to 2.2 forced dropouts per game as the Panthers built pressure and waited for the defensive line to crack.
For context on how differently they used their tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line to others:
| Club | Points per Game | Tackles Inside Opp-20 | Forced Dropouts per Game | Points per Tackle Inside Opp-20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 25.6 (4th) | 31.5 (1st) | 2.2 (1st) | 0.81 (9th) |
| Eels | 23.1 (7th) | 30.7 (2nd) | 1.7 (4th) | 0.75 (13th) |
| Tigers | 20.8 (9th) | 29.8 (3rd) | 1.1 (15th) | 0.69 (14th) |
| Knights | 17.9 (15th) | 28 (4th) | 1.4 (8th) | 0.63 (15th) |
Maintaining possession creates fatigue in the defensive line. Fatigue promotes lazy efforts and opportunities for the attack. When you’ve got one of the most mesmerizing players in the game crabbing across the field, deceiving defenders with subtle ball-play and tempo changes, the gaps are going to open up.
With the platform laid before them – and often a lead already built – the Panthers could put a few moves from the training ground into practice. We saw them try out a few trick shots early in the season as they ripped through every team in the competition.
This one might only be possible with Matt Burton at centre and I’m still not sure it’s 100% deliberate. Nonetheless, hitting a lead runner before he shovels the ball out wide is something we rarely see.
Cleary’s developing no-look pass made for interesting viewing all season as he tried it on in Round 4, applied it a bit better in Round 7, and nailed it in Round 9 for Burton to score.
There is a slight element of luck involved with the Panthers having the ideal players to make the most of this new-look game. We’ve come this far without even mentioning Isaah Yeo who profiles as close to the perfect lock forward in the NRL today. James Fisher-Harris is profiles as much of the same at prop. Luck or not, the Panthers put their game plan into practice and trusted the process.
The NRL is always changing. There will be a new trend that pops up early in the season, and if it’s successful, every other team will try to copy it. I don’t think the Panthers will sway too far away from what worked over the last two years, though.
A simple platform + creative genius = another very, very good season.
~ Jason
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Liam Martin
Liam Martin should be an 80-minute edge forward playing alongside the best halfback in the competition which all points towards a breakout year in 2022.
You could argue he’s already broken out – 64 NRL games, three Origin appearances and a premiership ring at just 24 years of age is a tidy resume – but there’s plenty of upside about Martin this year and I think we’ll see him go to another level in a starting role.
He’s been an impact guy through the middle or on an edge for most of his first-grade career to date and it’s seen him type-cast as a firebrand wrecking ball in attack and defence. He’s certainly got a bit of that about him but Martin’s line-running and timing is underrated at NRL level and I think people will start to cotton on in 2022.
With Stephen Crichton at right centre outside him, Martin doesn’t need to provide the creativity Kurt Capewell did with the ball in hand. His job this year will be to run a perfect line off Nathan Cleary’s hip every time the ball comes right, and it’s a job Martin can do very, very well.
If Cleary doesn’t tip Martin one-on-one with a halfback (good luck) in these actions, he can at least rely on him to hold up the defence while the pass goes out the back or to generate some ruck speed by finding his front in a carry. It’s not the kind of actions we usually associate with an interchange enforcer but I can see Martin re-inventing himself this year into an ultra-reliable top-tier backrower. He might not bust four tackles on his way to the line like a Viliame Kikau, but Martin can be the one getting a quick play-the-ball one tackle before another Penrith try.
Jason: Spencer Leniu
You’re an incredibly well-stocked football side at the prop position when Spencer Leniu is clearly the third man down on the list.
The 21-year-old averaged only 23.7 minutes per game last season but made every minute count to be one of the most efficient ball carriers in the NRL. A few numbers:
Round 2: 29 minutes, 134 running metres
Round 3: 27 minutes, 113 running metres
Round 5: 25 minutes, 200 running metres
Round 11: 26 minutes, 103 running metres
Round 15: 23 minutes, 110 running metres
There will be an opportunity for Leniu to play more minutes this year; 30 per game feels like the sweet spot. Signed until the end of the 2023 NRL season, he can start negotiations for 2024 in November. I think a few clubs might be getting in touch with him early…
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Jarome Luai of 2020
Nathan Cleary’s rapid rise as the premier player in the NRL helped Penrith claim the 2021 premiership in convincing fashion. He consistently took the right option with the ball in hand despite extreme defensive pressure and there’s no reason to suggest he won’t do so again in 2022.
That being said, there’s scope this year for Jarome Luai to have more of an impact for the Panthers, particularly in attack.
In 2020, Luai played 23 games for seven tries and 23 try assists. His combination with Viliame Kikau, Stephen Crichton and Brian To’o was the best in the business and it was a joy to watch, too.
It’s looking like Izack Tago will get that left centre position and all reports are that he’s a genuine gun. Adding to that, Penrith has lost Kurt Capewell on the right edge and while I’m big on Liam Martin this year, I think we might see Penrith swing it a little more to the left in 2022. Luai is one of the best creative attacking players in the competition and he’s got one more year left with Kikau running off his hip in good ball.
I think he’ll make the most of it.
Jason: Floating Crichton
We’re covering some old ground here but I’m sure the Panthers will be looking to have Stephen Crichton roam around the field a little bit more this season. Tom Trbojevic’s performances for the New South Wales Blues have provided them with the blueprint and there is no better half in the NRL to use Crichton effectively than Nathan Cleary.
Going all the way back to Round 11 in 2020, we saw Crichton float over from the left side and run a fullback-like line on the right. It’s clunky on this occasion, but you can see the potential.
It only took two games in 2021 for the Panthers to try it on again. It’s slightly different with the lead runner staying on the outside of Cleary this time. Still, it asks a lot of questions of the defence and puts Crichton in positions to dominate without having to be parked out on the edge.
It occurred in the inferior code but EK Rugby (a great follow on Twitter regardless of the number of players on the field in his videos) highlighted this play recently.
He said it’s popular amongst the French teams right now and I can quite easily see Crighton taking his winger to the other side of the field and throwing something similar at the defence.
Crichton is a great talent. I had him circled for fullback from 2023 onwards before the Panthers re-signed Dylan Edwards. With Crichton now likely to spend at least another two or three seasons in the centres, Ivan Cleary and company should look for innovative ways to get the most out of him.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Izack Tago ($287,900) – There’s been enough talk about this kid for 45% of SC players to have him in their squad at time of writing. Playing in a premiership-winning side is a boost for any attacking outside back and if Tago’s junior highlight reels are anything to go by, he won’t be this cheap for long.
Liam Martin ($428,500) – I’m going all-in on Martin this year. I think he’s got huge upside with a bump in minutes and a permanent position next to the best playmaker in the competition. He could remain a role-player in this Penrith side but I think Martin has what it takes to be a key cog in the Panthers’ attacking structures – particularly next year once Viliame Kikau is gone.
Api Koroisau ($479,700) – Had a quiet year by his own standards in 2021 and was probably another (see Luai, below) whose SC scoring suffered due to Cleary’s dominance in attack. Koroisau has got one year left at Penrith and is probably the best of the rest outside your Grant’s, Cook’s and Mahoney’s of the world when it comes to SC hookers.
Jarome Luai ($515,600) – Was reliable all season and had patches of brilliance, but like Koroisau he was not asked to ever do too much in attack last year. I think we might see a bit more from Luai in 2022 which could make him a POD keeper in the hotly contested five-eighth SC position. For a similar price you can get Scott Drinkwater or Albert Kelly – that to me says Luai has money to make in 2022.
Stephen Crichton ($432,300) – Very awkwardly priced in a position with plenty of options, but one to watch out for in 2022. His SC scoring was hampered by stints on the wing but if he cements a centre position like we expect, than Crichton could be anything. I’m excited to see him working into fullback-like involvements in attack and the impact that could have on his SC value. Watching closely.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
Doing It All Again
There is a reason it took so long for a club to win back-to-back premierships in the NRL.
It’s a bloody hard slog physically and mentally. There is an element of luck involved, too.
Injuries are inevitable in rugby league. While the best teams are the best at covering them, when they occur is important as well. The Panthers were forced to deal with a few throughout 2021 but – somebody might have to correct me here – to have the full squad available for an NRL Grand Final is unheard of.
I have to assume that they won’t have that luxury again should they feature in their third-consecutive decider.
But getting there will be hard enough. They have a target on their back and a lot of the squad will again feature in State of Origin. It’s a difficult period to navigate and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Panthers suffered a downturn in form in the months following the 2021 series.
Enthusiasm and effort is one thing in March and another in July and August. Ivan Cleary knows that so I’m curious to see how he approaches this season.
Wayne Bennett is an expert in priming his team for a particular portion of the year. He goes out to win every game, but winning every game isn’t always the only good possible outcome. He plays the long game across 25 rounds and it might be something Clearly looks to emulate moving forward.
It’s going to be difficult to judge. Perhaps impossible without Cleary saying the words. Still, it’s a narrative I’ll be monitoring throughout the year.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Panthers in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Premiers: They’re not my pick for the premiership in 2022 but I’m not ruling them out either. Nathan Cleary gets better with every game and he’s got elite players all around him. Penrith arguably have the best prop, lock, halfback and winger in the game and the rest of the squad is pretty slick, too. Making three consecutive grand finals is a mighty ask though… ~OP
Premiers: I don’t think it’s likely at this point. Making a third-straight Grand Final is so, so hard. But a lot of the key players return for 2022 and they will know the path they need to take to get there. ~JO
Pass
Finals, Week 2: It’s pretty high as far as pass marks go, but the Penrith Panthers have truly cemented themselves as a top-tier NRL club. They’ve recruited well to have decent coverage during the Origin period and their junior talent pools are deeper than most. They should finish comfortably inside the top four but I wonder whether there will be enough gas in the tank to match it with Melbourne and Sydney come late September. ~OP
Preliminary Final: You need to be a very good side to set the pass mark at a Preliminary Final. The Panthers should be one of the best four teams this season, though. Whether they slip up at points during the year or suffer a key injury at an inopportune time, they’re going to be a tough match up in September and will expect to at least be playing in the Grand Final qualifier. ~JO
Pit
Finals, Week 1: The Panthers have been very lucky with injuries over the last 24 months. There is great depth to this squad but we know the Origin period will hit them hard and if a few niggles turn into genuine injuries to key players, there is a possibility Penrith slip out of the top four in 2022. If things get that far, a swift exit out the back door in Week 1 of the finals could surprise a few of us. ~OP
Finals, Week 1: Things just don’t work out sometimes. We saw it last year with the Roosters who fought hard just to make it to Week 2. It would take a similar injury list for the Panthers to struggle through to the finals but a third long season could promote a handful of issues. Still, they’re a Top 8 team at worst. ~JO