The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the Parramatta Eels who are desperate to win one extra game following four Week 2 losses in five years.
Parramatta Eels 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Will Penisini, Oregon Kaufusi
- Sections Wishlist: Mahoney every week, Wiremu Greig
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: Set Starts
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the Parramatta Eels 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
A third consecutive finals berth would be considered a success for most clubs but the Parramatta Eels seem to attract more than their fair share of criticism. They were being talked about as cannon fodder in this year’s finals series but in reality, Parramatta’s 8-6 prelim loss to eventual premiers the Penrith Panthers is a pretty fair representation of the Eels in 2021.
Parramatta beat almost every team they were expected to beat while causing a few upsets along the way – two impressive regular season wins over the Melbourne Storm come to mind. Their defence was consistently one of the best in the competition and ensured they beat the lesser teams but their offence didn’t measure up against the top teams. They averaged just 12.2 points per game against top-four opposition this year – well down on their 23.1 season average – and it left them agonisingly short of a miracle Grand Final appearance.
The ‘too sideways’ rhetoric continued for the most part of 2021 in regards to Parramatta’s attack, although by season’s end there were improvements in that area. Mitchell Moses developed enough to earn a maiden NSW Blues jersey while Isaiah Papali’i had a breakout year of mammoth proportions. I’m not sure the premiership window was ever truly open for Parramatta in 2021, but if you said you felt a breeze blowing now, I wouldn’t argue with you.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Eels attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
Playing to their strengths is what made the Melbourne’s, Penrith’s and Manly’s of 2021 so effective and I think Parramatta found what works for them in the back end of last year.
Regular readers will know we banged on about the Eels and their shift-happy attacking structures in 2021. A failure to win the middle and compress the defence makes it easy for the defensive line to slide and cover wide-ranging shifts, and the Eels tried to take the path around the defence without doing the hard work too often in 2020 and 2021.
But as the season went on they straightened things up. Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown – top-tier running halves – began challenging the line a little more as they searched across the field rather than catching and passing through their sets.
It forced the defence to hold through the middle before chasing hard when the pass went wide, which invariably opened up spaces back on the inside. In Ryan Matterson, Shaun Lane, Isaiah Papali’i (depending on where he plays) and Marata Niukore, the Eels have three edge forwards perfectly equipped to capitalise on those spaces.
I think we’ll get a lot more of this in 2022 from the Eels.
You don’t want your backrowers catching the ball flat-footed or under pressure at the line. Lane’s 198cm frame, in particular, isn’t built for mobility or skill but when you turn him back under against the grain with a bit of momentum he’s awfully hard to bring down.
Instead of sweeping backline shifts from coast-to-coast, I want to see Moses and Brown playing on the ball and searching for a weakness as they work across the field. This action against the Cowboys last year is a prime example:
There’s Brown and Moses linking up on the right edge, engaging the defence before passing which gets North Queensland chasing the ball laterally. Moses immediately drops Niukore back under and the big unit pours into half a hole before getting a quick play-the-ball.
On the next tackle, Moses plays nice and direct, tipping Oregon Kaufusi between two smaller defenders near the posts while the Cowboys worry about Parramatta’s backline fanning out to the left. One settler later, Moses swings around to the left and passes an Eels backrower into space for the second time in this set – try time.
I love this kind of control from Moses and I want more. Parramatta had a backline set and was ready on every tackle, but instead, Moses played to the strengths of his squad and got the result.
It doesn’t need to be Moses and Brown passing the big edge backrowers onto the ball either. Junior Paulo is a freak with the ball and can tip a Lane, Papali’i, Matterson or Niukore onto single defenders as Moses and Brown fan out to the open side, plotting their next raid. Nathan Brown’s passing game has improved enough to fill in this role every so often, too.
Having Will Penisini out in the centres this year (more on this below) might provide the Eels with a genuine strike option on the edges but I don’t think we’re in ‘get the ball to Penisini’ territory just yet. Parramatta look best when their forwards are impacting the game and it’s where I think we’ll see them play for the most part in 2022.
~ Oscar & Jason
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Will Penisini
Centre is a problem position for this Eels squad. Waqa Blake has all the potential in the world but has struggled for consistency and you probably don’t want Marata Niukore playing in the backs long-term, either.
Will Penisini profiles as a guy tailor-made for the centres. He’s big, rangy, moves exceptionally well and has that flick pass that makes all great centres great.
From three NRL starting gigs in 2021 Penisini managed one try, one try assist, five tackle busts and an average 126 running metres with the ball in hand. He also made on average 14.3 tackles for 1.7 misses defending in the extremely difficult position of right centre. He’ll want to tidy up those missed tackles but the early signs are good for Penisini and Parramatta and I’m backing him to make the most of his opportunity in 2022.
Jason: Oregon Kaufusi
The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks must love what they saw in Oregon Kaufusi to offer him a deal for 2023 in December 2021. I don’t blame them for getting in early. The 22-year-old looks ready to break out in the NRL following an encouraging 2022 season.
He played 21 games in 2021 but only started four. His minutes varied throughout the year playing fewer than 30 minutes ten times but 40+ minutes six times. Most impressive is the 138.4 running metres he averaged across those big-minute games. He has the motor and the ball-carrying ability to take on a lot more responsibility within the Eels pack this year and I hope Brad Arthur gives it to him.
This little overs line is going end in a try at some point.
Kaufusi is good enough on his feet to quickly change his line to the outside shoulder of the defence. David Fifita does a good job in holding off on Nathan Brown to make the tackle, but Kaufusi generates a quick play-the-ball on the line. You can see Reed Mahoney motion for Ryan Matterson to charge at Ash Taylor at A defender, too.
They don’t score here but it shows the impact Kaufusi can have on a set without being the try scorer or throwing the offload. We can also file this under the Predicted Profile banner for the Eels in 2022.
There is a lot of competition for minutes in the Parramatta pack and I’m hoping Kaufusi picks up a few more this season.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Reed Mahoney to stay on the field
There’s a bitter taste on every tongue in Parramatta when we start talking about Mahoney but regardless of his long-term future, he’s still a massive part of the Eels chances in 2022.
The development of Mahoney’s ballplaying around the ruck was a regular feature in Jase’s column last year so I’m getting in early. The Eels are blessed with big bodies around the ruck and Mahoney’s ability to isolate these guys – think Shaun Lane, Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard – onto smaller defenders was a key part of Parramatta’s attack in 2021.
There’s almost nothing you can do when Paulo is coming at you like this, and I want more.
We’ve spoken ad nauseam about Parramatta’s tendency to play too sideways and Mahoney is a guy who can remedy this. I’m hoping he stays injury-free and plays a leading role in Parramatta’s premiership push this season before he departs for Belmore. The more attack that comes through Mahoney this year, the better.
Jason: Wiremu Greig
We still don’t know a lot about Wiremu Greig. He played only two first grade games in 2021 and just 29 minutes across the pair of them. Still, two things we do know is enough to want to see more:
– 192cm
– 124kg
The 22-year-old is a mountain of a man. He has some pretty decent raps on him following last year’s NSW Cup campaign, too.
“Greig finished the 2021 season with 10 matches for the NSW Cup side that claimed third position, and his mobility in the middle gave the likes of Nathaniel Roache, Jakob Arthur, Jordan Rankin and Sean Russell the momentum they needed in attack.” – Tom Gibbs, NSWRL.com.au
We’re unlikely to see too much of him throughout 2022 unless injuries strike the first-choice 17, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for his name on Tuesdays.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Mitchell Moses ($511,100) – I’m someone who’s keener than most on Moses but he’s got upside about him in 2022. At 27 years of age he’s just coming into his prime as a halfback and he’s got a settled and established spine around him. He changed a few opinions with his State of Origin efforts last year and I think he could win over a few more in 2022.
Dylan Brown ($466,100) – He was one of the 22 Things for 2022 that I highlighted last month and since then Brown carved up Penrith in the trials and extended his contract with the Eels until 2023. Last year was a quiet year by Brown’s standards and he’ll only need to improve marginally to get that price tag ticking over.
Oregon Kaufusi ($293,900) – He might already be signed to Cronulla for 2023 but Oregon Kaufusi is an underrated component of Parramatta’s premiership chances this year, for me. Jase has obviously seen something he likes too and at less than 300K he’s got some cash to make in 2021 if his minutes keep rising. On the watchlist.
Will Penisini ($255,700) – Specialist centre in a side calling out for a genuine, reliable option in that position. It will take a very poor run of form to see Penisini drop out of this side, and I think he’s too good for that to happen. Will make some cash at worst and at best could be a POD keeper option in the CTW spot.
Shaun Lane ($463,600) – We definitely didn’t see the best of Lane in 2021 but his trial form this pre-season is promising. Dylan Brown increasing his attacking output should bring Lane into the game more this year and he’s on the watchlist for me. Lane averaged 25 offloads across three seasons from 2018-20 but threw just 13 last year. Get those long arms free, big fella!
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
Set Starts
Blake Ferguson averaged 148 running metres per game in 2021.
Maika Sivo picked up 129.6 metres per game.
Neither are particularly big numbers compared with other wingers in the NRL, but it was their willingness to charge at the line on 1st and 2nd tackle that often laid the platform for Parramatta to attack from. Their job was to start the set strong and, ideally, finish it in the corner.
Ferguson is gone, Sivo isn’t there to start 2022 and a possible replacement, Haze Dunster, is out for the season following a horrible knee injury in the trials.
So, where is Parramatta going to get their yardage from?
Bailey Simonsson is a capable first-grader with a lot of improvement still in him but doesn’t present as the most yardage-hungry winger. Meanwhile, Sean Russell is only two games into his NRL career and isn’t going to be the biggest bloke running around in the backline.
As we’ve already mentioned above, starting the set by winning the middle is crucial to how every team plays with the ball but is particularly important for Parramatta who look to shift the ball wide early. I’ll be keeping an eye out for who is putting their hand up in kick return sets to start the season.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Eels in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Premiers: The rugby league community loves giving Parramatta stick but the more I think about it, the more I don’t mind the idea of an Eels premiership in 2022. It would take an almighty effort to get past two of either Penrith, Sydney and Melbourne in the finals series but it’s not impossible. Their defence is elite and this spine has one last chance to bring it all together. ~OP
Grand Final: They’re the sixth team on the list of potential premiers right now, but anything can happen in September. I like Parra to at least make Week 2 of the finals and they showed last year that they’re close to getting over the hump. From there, I can’t rule them out of making the NRL Grand Final. Winning it is another story, though. ~JO
Pass
Finals, Week 2: A repeat of their 2021 efforts is my pass mark for Parramatta this season. If they finish outside the Top 4, expect the Eels to make light work of their Week 1 opposition before clashing with a heavyweight in Week 2. In that game last year, Parramatta lost 6-8 to eventual premiers Penrith. If they can defend like that again in 2022, I think they find a few more points inside that 80 minutes. ~OP
Finals, Week 2: They’ve lost in Week 2 of the NRL Finals in four of the last five years. Despite going close to beating Penrith in this spot last year and likely to play better football in 2022 overall, it still feels like the point their season will end. It would be frustrating to see and possibly the start of a downturn, but it’s still a solid pass mark for the year. ~JO
Pit
Week 1 Finals Exit: I can’t see Parramatta missing the finals this year even if they have a horror run with injury. That being said, a swift exit out the back door isn’t out of the question if the Eels limp into September and face a humming Sharks, Rabbitohs or Sea Eagles side. It would be a disappointing way to farewell a host of key players at the end of the year. ~OP
8th: There is a world that it all becomes too much for this group in 2022; the disappointment of losing semi-finals, seeing the top teams within reach but not being able to reel them in, the thought of key players leaving at the end of the year. However, they’re too good not to at least feature in finals football whether they’re a speed bump for the 5th-placed team or not. ~JO