The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the North Queensland Cowboys who are desperate to bounce back from a horror 2021 campaign.
North Queensland Cowboys 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Tom Gilbert, Mitchell Dunn
- Sections Wishlist: Taumalolo’s minutes, The Peta Hiku Experience
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: One backline to rule them all
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the North Queensland Cowboys 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
Frustrating. Aimless. Head-scratching. The North Queensland Cowboys looked like a possible Top 8 contender before Round 1. They sat 7th on the ladder after Round 14 and had shown enough improvement at the time to suggest they might be able to keep their place through to September. However, ten consecutive defeats and only two competition points earned across the last 12 rounds of the season saw those finals hopes slip away. If not for a historically bad Bulldogs team, the Cowboys would have been in a fight to avoid the wooden spoon.
Todd Payten arrived in North Queensland with relatively high expectations following his time with the Warriors. That fight and resilience he managed to get out of the Kiwi club didn’t eventuate at the Cowboys, though. Very much an attack > defence style football side, they didn’t give themselves a chance playing with the NRL’s worst defence.
Jason Taumalolo didn’t have his best year as he experimented in a variety of roles. The edges lacked consistency and the backline is still up in the air heading into 2022. Scott Drinkwater provides hope for an improved attack next season, but it will be for nothing without a much better defence.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Cowboys attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
There is serious competition in the North Queensland Cowboys halves for 2022. Chad Townsend has been signed to march the team around the field and add some organisation to the attack. That leaves Tom Dearden or Scott Drinkwater to fill the #6 jersey. Whoever does take the spot, we caught a glimpse of the sort of involvement they will have throughout the trials.
I wasn’t sold on Tom Dearden and his 2021 form but how he and North Queensland played in their trial against Brisbane was promising. Both options are always going to be a target in the defensive line but Dearden, in particular, looks to have put a few kilos on and his first contact was strong all night.
So was his ballplaying.
In good ball Dearden got his hands on the pill multiple times in the set as he searched for weaknesses in Brisbane’s line.
With Rueben Cotter and Tom Gilbert in a double lead shape outside him, Dearden takes the ball right into the defence which forces the Broncos to consider his run. A last-second pass pitches Gilbert one-on-one with Tyson Gamble who makes a try saving, ball-and-all tackle on his own line, but Gilbert keeps his feet and gets a reasonably quick play-the-ball as a result.
While it looked like Gamble had saved the day for Brisbane, the full impact of Dearden’s ballplaying was still to come. It’s thanks to Dearden that Gilbert could play the ball so quickly and it’s thanks to Dearden that Brisbane are scrambling on the next tackle.
Selwyn Cobbo fills in at A on the short side like all fullbacks should when a half is caught up in the tackle on their own try line, and Dearden spots it. He and halfback Chad Townsend sweep around the ruck to target that channel and the Broncos can’t adjust in time. Dearden engages Jordan Riki and holds the pass long enough to wear a shot as Valentine Holmes streaks through untouched.
This was nice from the Cowboys. The key is how deep Dearden takes the ball into the line in both actions before passing. He’s got a good show-and-go if the defence slides off too quickly but it’s Dearden’s ballplaying that’s still developing and this was as good as I’ve seen from him in first-grade.
With hard running edge forwards in Jeremiah Nanai, Heilum Luki or even Tom Gilbert, I think we’re going to see North Queensland’s halves actively looking to bring guys like this onto the ball at the line. He’s no Jonathan Thurston but you’d like to think Dearden/Drinkwater can do with a Luki or Nanai what Thurston did with the likes of Ethan Lowe or Gavin Cooper a few years ago. Nanai and Luki have far more upside as attacking backrowers and they just need to be passed into positive areas on the field.
Jason Taumalolo’s involvement is one of the more interesting factors to consider this season. The game has changed around him and he didn’t look as effective in 2021. However, like Dearden’s first pass to Gilbert above, Taumalolo drawing in two or three defenders before tipping a pass on and promoting a quick play-the-ball won’t show up on the stats but is a valuable contribution. It’s something to look out for throughout the year.
There is plenty of talent on the Cowboys roster. The backline is particularly exciting and will play behind a pack that, while struggling for an identity right now, can cause some trouble through the middle.
Valentine Holmes is a classy player and already looks good in the centres. He can become a real threat out wide once he grows a little more comfortable in his role. Similarly, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow could be anything with some consistent time spent at fullback.
The individuals in this side are exciting. It’s whether or not Todd Payten can bring them together that will determine how their 2022 NRL season plays out.
~ Oscar & Jason
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Tom Gilbert
I’m a big fan of Tom Gilbert. He’s a great lump of a lad with a huge motor and a blatant disregard for his own body on both sides of the ball. His 2021 campaign was interrupted by a broken leg late in the pre-season but he finished the year with an average 117 running metres from his last five games. Interestingly, Gilbert played on the edge in four of those five games but I think his future is in the middle – ideally as a prop-forward partner for Jason Taumalolo.
Jase has already touched on Mitch Dunn moving into the middle as a ball-playing lock (below) which should see Taumalolo move to prop. Both are capable of tipping a pass on at the line and Gilbert is a guy who can take advantage of this action. He’s mobile for a big unit and would look good pushing up off Taumalolo as he takes the ball into the defence.
He’s also got a bit of grunt about him. The good old days of genuine rugby league enforcers are behind us but Gilbert can be what North Queensland haven’t really had since releasing Josh McGuire. A bit of niggle and a few screws loose usually make for a quality prop-forward in the NRL and I think Gilbert’s got it in him.
Jason: Mitchell Dunn
‘’Pretty sure I’ve made that transition, the same as Hessy.’’ – Mitchell Dunn
I love Michell Dunn’s move to the middle of the field for this season. Todd Payten has identified a huge weakness in the Cowboys squad from last season and moved a more than capable Dunn from the edge and into the middle of the field.
The Cowboys threw the fewest general play passes in the competition last season. And it wasn’t particularly close. The Broncos managed almost ten more per game to be 14th while Nathan Cleary and the Penrith Panthers let go of 37.8 more passes than the Cowboys.
| Cowboys | Broncos | Eels | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Play Passes per Game | 77 | 85.5 | 109.6 | 114.8 |
| NRL Rank | 16th | 14th | 2nd | 1st |
Passing the ball doesn’t guarantee points or wins, but that movement through the middle of the field has become a hallmark of the best attacking sides in the NRL. Being able to transfer the ball from one side of the field to the other is key to making the most of tiring defences through the middle.
Dunn is a superb ball player for somebody his size, has spotted up in the halves before, and can act as the link man in the middle of the field for the Cowboys in 2022. His impact as a ball-carrier will be something to keep an eye on early, though. The 25-year old’s 66 running metres per game in 2021 is a career-high and a number he will be looking to double provided the minutes are on offer.
This move has the potential to reshape the Cowboys attack moving forward.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Taumalolo as a 60-70 minute man
Jason Taumalolo to play 60-70 mins a week in the front-row.
The game has moved past Taumalolo in the last few years. He’s still the best yardage forward in the game but your lock needs to shift the ball smoothly through the middle third and with the #13 on his back, Taumalolo can’t play to his natural strengths.
I’m all for Taumalolo adding a pass to his game. Jase has covered this at length and there’s definitely scope for Taumalolo to improve in this area. Still, it shouldn’t be his first thought when he takes possession – more like his fourth or fifth.
Taumalolo only cracked 200 running metres twice in 2021 – once against the Broncos in Round 9 and then again when he was named at prop in Round 24 for the first and only time that year. This is coming from a guy who averaged 197 metres per game in his previous four seasons. We know Taumalolo’s 2021 campaign was hampered by injury and there was conjecture around his game time under Todd Payten, but that needs to end in 2022.
Injuries and positional changes have made some people forget just how good Taumalolo really is and a move to prop is how I’d remind them. North Queensland aren’t in a position to get clever with Taumalolo’s minutes and they’ve got the ballplaying personnel in Dunn or Reuben Cotter to put at lock. They could do worse than throw Taumalolo in the front-row for 30-35 minutes a half and just let him rip.
Jason: The Peta Hiku Experience
From one Warriors fan to all Cowboys fans, enjoy the Peta Hiku experience.
It’s a rollercoaster, folks.
Hiku is one of the most fascinating and frustrating players that I have had the pleasure of cheering for throughout his time at the Warriors. In fact, it’s a Round 5 performance for the Warriors against the Cowboys that really sums up the sort of ride you’re about to go on.
– He tried to shepherd a grubber dead before Kyle Feldt pounced on it to score.
– Stood up his opposite to score.
– Fell on an Egan grubber to score.
– Collected a Nikorima bomb to score.
– Three missed tackles.
– Two errors.
– One ruck infringement.
– Three tries conceded on his edge.
It’s a loss (#LetsGoneWarriors) but check the highlights here to see it for yourself.
Some advice for taking on the Peta Hiku Experience: Embrace it. Know that for every time you palm your face you’ll soon be punching the air in delight. He’s that sort of player. And enjoy it. Hopefully, he puts on the sort of plays for somebody in North Queensland to take over my ‘Piku’ thread on Twitter.
Now a neutral observer, I want him out there every week.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($418,800) – The ceiling is sky-high for ‘The Hammer’ and it’s only a matter of time before he gets there. Chad Townsend profiles as a guy who can help get the most out of Tabuai-Fidow but so far most of what we’ve seen has been individual attacking brilliance. He won’t be this cheap for long so if you think 2022 is Tabuai-Fidow’s year then pick him up now.
Heilum Luki ($351,500) – Luki played about 20 minutes in the Broncos trial and had eight runs for 110 running metres, four tackle busts and an offload. He’s an absolute specimen and looks tailor-made for an attacking edge backrow position. Very tempting at this price.
Jeremiah Nanai ($343,700) – Another worth considering just on the price tag alone, reports out of North Queensland are that Nanai is better than Luki. I don’t know enough to have him in my side right now but he’s certainly on my watchlist to begin the NRL season.
Tom Gilbert ($363,500) – With Jeremiah Nanai a late withdrawal for the Broncos trial, Gilbert played 60 minutes straight on the left edge and then finished with another eight minutes in the middle. He punched out good numbers (14 runs for 150 metres with 56 post-contact, 24 tackles and three tackle busts) but most encouraging were his effort areas (kick chase, third man in, multiple carries in a set) late in his stint. If he gets a starting role somewhere he’s one to watch.
Tom Dearden ($364,600) – Looks to be in front of Scott Drinkwater in the pecking order which could mean SC value. Took a very active role in directing North Queensland’s attack in the Broncos trial while still threatening as a ball runner (four tackle busts, 65 run metres and a few half line-breaks) himself. Whether or not the Cowboys are a good enough attacking side for Dearden to be a top SC halfback is debatable but he’ll make some coin on this starting price at the very least.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
One backline to rule them all
The Cowboys must settle on a backline in 2022.
We’ve been here before, too.
I touched on it to start last year and highlighted the number of backline combinations they used across the 2019 and 2020 NRL seasons.
“The back five has changed 32 times in their last 44 games.”
It didn’t get much better in 2021 either…
Injuries, form, desperation and curiosity – even retirement – all contributed to the ever-changing Cowboys backline. Scott Drinkwater started the season at fullback before replacing Michael Morgan in the halves. Valentine Holmes took over the #1 jersey but failed to make it his own, ending up on the wing and eventually in the centres by season’s end. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow forced himself into a larger role within the Cowboys attack and performed admirably despite the moving parts around him.
It may take Payten a few weeks to settle on his first-choice 17 but it’s crucial that they spend a decent period on the field together in 2022.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Cowboys in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
9th: North Queensland were my swing side last year and I’ve got them in the same boat again in 2022. If Jeremiah Nanai and Heilum Luki burst out the gates and they get the consistent, best from Jason Taumalolo, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and the like, I won’t be surprised to see the Cowboys flirt with the Top 8. I also won’t be surprised to see them swing the other way. ~OP
8th: There’s a world where it all comes together for Payten and the Cowboys and they make a run into the Top 8. We’ve seen how Payten can galvanise a playing group and he has surely made mention of where the Cowboys sit in most predicted NRL ladders. With the squad a little bit more settled and Taumalolo primed for a big year, they’re a finals roughie. ~JO
Pass
13th: The Cowboys’ 15th place finish last year was a disappointment no matter how you look at it. Still, there were plenty of excuses with injuries and retirements to key personnel in Todd Payten’s first season in charge. The pass mark this year is a gradual climb up the premiership ladder as North Queensland develop some of their exciting young talent – think Tabuai-Fidow, Nanai, Luki, Dearden. ~OP
10 Wins: It’s still shocking to think this side finished 15th in 2022. They sat inside the Top 8 after Round 14 before losing 10 of their last 11 games. Winning six of eight games between Round 5 and 12 suggests there is something in this group and that picking up three extra W’s is an achievable goal heading into a new NRL season. ~JO
Pit
Wooden Spoon: North Queensland are one of a few clubs in line for the dreaded spoon this year, for mine. I’m a little concerned in the faith placed in Chad Townsend and more concerned about the imbalance in this roster moving forward. This current squad is probably too good to be in wooden spoon contention but those bottom few rungs on the ladder are going to get messy late in the season. ~OP
14th-15th: Much like the Warriors in seasons past (they’ve never won the spoon, believe it or not), there looks to be too much individual talent for this team to finish dead last. They rarely have problems scoring points so will fall into wins on the back of their attack. It’s the defence that is the issue, but they’re unlikely to be the worst in that department again provided there is some more consistency on the team list.. ~JO