The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the Canberra Raiders as the look to bounce back from a disappointing year.
Canberra Raiders 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Adam Elliott & Emre Guler
- Sections Wishlist: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad & Xavier Savage
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: Jack Wighton’s form
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the Canberra Raiders 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
We only need one word to describe the Canberra Raiders in 2021 – disappointing.
For a side that was in just about everybody’s Top 8 predictions, the Raiders’ 10th place finish was as sobering as it was surprising, as on- and off-field dramas riddled the club for most of the season. When your team isn’t winning, the fingers start pointing, and there was plenty of pointing in the nation’s capital in 2021.
Canberra’s best two players – Jack Wighton and Josh Papali’i – failed to find the kind of form that ranks them at premier players as their position. George Williams’ sudden and dramatic departure hampered Canberra well beyond his final game in Round 11 while Joseph Tapine’s partner was letting rip on the socials. Josh Hodgson’s status as first-choice hooker and co-captain of the club also came under pressure. Throw in Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad missing 17 games and just about everything went wrong for the Raiders in 2021.
Credit must go to Ricky Stuart for weathering the storm and getting this team within two points of playing finals footy. A 40-16 loss to the Sydney Roosters in Round 25 felt like a disappointing end to a disappointing season at the time, but it’s enough to make me think Ricky’s Raiders could still be a force in 2022.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Raiders attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
The Canberra Raiders changed things up in 2021. The adjustments – along with the change in personnel for a variety of reasons – meant we never saw the best of the Raiders attack.
Rather than playing with split halves left and right as they did in 2020, Jack Wighton and George Williams spent more time moving across the field. Where Wighton had dominated at first receiver on the left side in 2020, he looked for opportunities to drift over to the right and never really looked comfortable.
While it didn’t work particularly well last season, I’m expecting something similar in 2022. Unlike 2021, the Raiders will have two players in key playmaking positions (I’m including lock here depending on who fills the spot) that can organise the attack and pass the side to spots on the field to attack from. Neither Wighton nor Williams (George or Sam) were effective in that regard.
This year it’s down to Josh Hodgson and Jamal Fogarty.
Hodgson is an excellent game manager from dummy half. He will go about his business from behind the ruck and work through a set with isolating single defenders further down the field in mind. This is a prime example (with two more here) of Hodgson passing teammates to where he wants them before throwing the try assist two or three tackles later:
Expecting to see Hodgson play more at lock this year, he can have a similar influence on how the Raiders move around the field.
A lot of the organizational duties were on his shoulders last year but it’s one of Fogarty’s greatest strengths. Between them, the Raiders attack should be able to get to the areas of the field they want to fire shots from and add to their 20 points per game (10th in the NRL) of last season.
Wighton is a great runner of the football. It should be his first thought more often than not. Swinging into actions like the clunky shift above can pose problems for the defence if executed well. Fogarty is a tough half and engaged the line 5.3 times per game last season (11th-most in the NRL) compared with George Williams’ 3.6. He can create the space out wide that Williams didn’t above to put Wighton in better positions to run the ball or drag in defenders before moving it wide.
We saw what the Raiders attack could look like last year if Hodgson, Fogarty and Wighton can stay fit to start 2022.
~ Jason
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Adam Elliott
There’s been plenty said about Adam Elliott and his off-field escapades but we’ve barely scratched the surface when it comes to what he can do on the footy field.
First things first, he’s an absolute mongrel and the exact type of player you just know will work well with Ricky Stuart. Capable of playing on an edge or in the middle, Elliott adds depth to an already deep Canberra backrow but I’m backing him to earn a spot at lock, either starting or from the bench.
With the #13 on his back, Elliott can distribute around the ruck in a fashion that Joseph Tapine and Ryan Sutton just aren’t built for. His ability to use some late footwork to skip sideways and tip a pass on has been sorely underutilized at NRL level to date and I want more.
I’m going back a couple of years here, but actions like this against the Cowboys in 2020 is a perfect example of Elliott’s effectiveness as a ballplayer.
Elliott spots Scott Drinkwater flying out of the line and immediately punishes the error by tipping Renouf Atouni into a yawning gap. It’s all done smoothly and at speed and it turns a yardage set into a scoring one.
This is something the Raiders were missing last year in how they worked up-field. They have big, damaging bodies across the park and Elliott is a guy who can bring them into the game. Swap Atouni out for Corey Harawira-Naeara here and you’ve got a very pretty four pointer.
Josh Hodgson will pull the strings from dummy-half but having a guy like Elliott who can help move the ball across field and free up Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty in attack could be the point-of-difference Canberra have been searching for in their pack.
Jason: Emre Guler
I circled Emre Guler on my Notepad before the 2021 NRL season but he didn’t kick on quite like I expected. The Raiders, in general, didn’t kick on quite like I expected so that may have had an impact on his performance relative to my expectations. The 24-year-old still managed 96 running metres per game jumping between starting and on the bench to be an effective performer overall.
I’m going back to the well in 2022 and putting his name down early once again.
It was his passing game that initially piqued my interest heading into last season.
He only ended up averaging one pass per game according to Fox Sports Lab.
That’s a number I want to see increase in 2022. Ball-playing middles have only grown in importance over the last two seasons and Guler is being underutilized in that role at the moment. Just look at this pass from the first preseason game:
It’s perfect. He catches it out in front and is straight into a position to pass. It remains to be seen whether he successfully read the defence here or it’s a good premeditated guess, but it’s a superb display of skill for a big bloke that can find a lot of success in compressing the defence and moving the ball wide.
Guler’s numbers impress already and he is a consistent performer, but if he can add one or two more passes per game, he is going to cause a lot more problems in 2022.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad needs to stay at fullback this season, end of discussion.
For all the excitement of a 19-year-old Xavier Savage, Nicoll-Klokstad has an immeasurable influence on the way Canberra work out of their own end and attack in good ball.
Since arriving on the scene in 2019, Nicoll-Klokstad has averaged 173 running metres across three seasons and the Raiders noticeably struggled in his absence last year. He is safe under the high ball and starts their sets off extremely well, often taking multiple carries early in the count. This allows Canberra’s forwards to have an impact on tackles four and five rather than chasing back and getting dominated by the defence early in the set.
Off the ball, Nicoll-Klokstad is an elite support player. He constantly keeps the defence in two minds and with prolific off-loaders littered across Canberra’s lineup, this is something I’m expecting to feature in 2022.
I’ll also be looking out for Nicoll-Klokstad’s passing game. We saw signs of development in this area last year and I’m here for more.
If Nicoll-Klokstad can consistently ice those three-on-two’s he’ll be knocking on the door of top-tier NRL fullbacks.
It’s lazy to suggest Nicoll-Klokstad would’ve changed Canberra’s form on a whim in 2021, but they were noticeably improved when he returned from injury and it would be madness to pick him anywhere else in 2022.
Jason: Xavier Savage
Oscar and I don’t often have totally different opinions on players or teams, but we look at Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Xavier Savage in different ways.
I want to see Savage on the field and if it’s at fullback over Nicoll-Klokstad then I think I’m alright with that.
Savage looks like a super talent. While we’ve not seen a lot from a ball-playing side of things, his speed is electric and can do half the job if he’s put in the right positions. He shapes as a support option for Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty who both like to step in and take the line on – Savage will go through the smallest of gaps.
He’s raw. With that comes a few questionable decisions and poor execution under pressure. However, he can really raise the ceiling of this Raiders attack if he plays regular football in 2022.
That might start in reserve grade with Nicoll-Klokstad wearing #1 in Round 1. I’d like to see Savage out there sooner rather than later, though.
Jarrod Croker deserves the first crack in the centres. He has a player option for 2024 that you’d imagine he will take if he’s healthy so it’s in Canberra’s best interest that he is a serviceable first-grader for the foreseeable future. Nicoll-Klokstad profiles well as a solid replacement if Croker isn’t up for it, though.
- Savage
- Rapana
- Timoko
- Nicoll-Klokstad
- Cotric
What do you reckon?
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Adam Elliott ($479,300) – If you’ve read this far then you already know what I think about Elliott in 2022. If he manages a starting spot in this pack then I’ll be very tempted to throw him in my squad somewhere.
Matt Timoko ($378,00) – With the Jarrod Croker saga still lingering around and Harvey Smith-Shields gone for the season, Timoko’s stocks are rising by the minute. He’s unlikely to be a top-tier centre but he’ll make some cash if his 2021 form is anything to go by – nine games for two try assists, 33 tackle busts and an average 111 running metres. He’s still very young and very raw, but we have our eyes on Timoko here at RLW.
Joseph Tapine ($484,400) – We can only learn so much from pre-season games but Tapine’s performance in the All-Stars game was enough to get him in my team. All things seem to be pointing towards Tapine starting in the front-row for Canberra this year and his tackle-busting and offloading abilities are a perfect fit for SC, provided he gets big minutes. He’s on the watchlist.
Xavier Savage ($286,400) – He’s got to make it onto the field to be relevant, but if Savage looks set for an extended run in first-grade then get him in your team. At worst he’ll make us some fast cash and at best he keeps his spot and assumingly scores a few points along the way.
Nick Cotric ($376,400) – We don’t have to go back too far to when Cotric was a premier winger in NRL and SC. A failed trip to Canterbury confirmed he’s not a centre and there’s upside everywhere you look in Cotric’s return to the wing in 2022 – run metres, tackle busts, linebreaks, tries. Get him in.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
A couple of things contributed to Jack Wighton’s dip in form last season.
The inconsistency of who he played beside in the halves is one thing along with the adjustments made over the offseason. The foundation those halves played on wasn’t always up to scratch compared to the season prior either.
Wighton is a cherry-on-top half.
He’s not going to drag the team through a tough period, laying on tries and kicking the team into promising positions. Instead, he’s going to provide the finishing touches, the flare. The points.
Wighton’s form depends on the form of those around him more than a lot of other halves in the NRL so how he plays is of particular importance to Canberra’s 2022 season.
He did hand out 10 try assists in 2021 – up from eight a season earlier. However, his tries dropped from 13 in 2020 to only five. It’s finding different ways to influence the side when it isn’t all going to plan that is important for Wighton. His kicking game needs to become more consistent, and as tired as the old trope is, he does just need to put his head down and take the line on when the team is struggling. He ran for only 83 metres per game in 2021 compared with 102 metres per game in his Dally M-winning 2020 season.
We know Wighton can dominate when his team is on the front foot. Can he take more control in the more difficult periods of a match this season?
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Raiders in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
8th: Just about everything would need to go right for the Raiders this year but playing finals footy isn’t out of the question. Josh Papali’i, Jo Tapine, Jack Wighton and Charnze-Nicoll-Klokstad are good enough to carry this team into September, but we’d need to see the best of them almost every week in order to do so. ~OP
6th: I just can’t see the Raiders being so disappointing again in 2022. A lot needs to break right for them to leap from 10th to 6th – particularly when you consider the fact five wins separated the two spots last season – but the Raiders have the squad and depth to do it. ~JO
Pass
9th-11th: Narrowly missing out on the finals in 2022 feels like a fair pass mark for Canberra this year. Jamal Fogarty is a solid signing at halfback but given the players around him, there’s a ceiling to this Raiders squad that I don’t think can consistently compete with the top teams. That being said, they should still comfortably handle a few teams below them on the ladder. ~OP
8th: Cohesion matters in the NRL and while the Raiders are introducing a new face to a key playmaking position, Fogarty is the sort of player that should slot straight in relatively seamlessly. This is still a squad that has played a lot of good footy together. If they can start to do that consistently, they shouldn’t finish any lower than 8th. ~JO
Pit
<12th: There’s a chance things go from bad to worse for Canberra this season. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the off-field circus that hampered Ricky Stuart’s team last year, but there are some on-field questions that remain. Josh Hodgson is on the way out, Jarrod Croker is coming back from injury and I’ve got my doubts around how much Fogarty changes this side. They won’t be easy beats but at time of writing 2019 is feeling like a long, long time ago. ~OP
11th: The 2021 season should be considered just a bad year. Off-field dramas contributed to on-field issues and vice-versa. There aren’t any excuses for this squad to perform so poorly relative to expectations in 2022. They finished 10th despite the disruptions so anything lower this time round is a failure. The sort that should bring with it a few questions around Ricky Stuart’s future at the club. ~JO