Unpack a scrum of three talking points before every round of the NRL season. In his feature this week, Oscar takes a deep dive into some numbers around the Eels v Knights game on Sunday.
Whether you’re searching for an edge in the workplace tipping comp or just desperate to talk some footy, you’ve found the place. Join me as we unpack the scrum that is the NRL each week.
Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre frame in the Rugby League lens this week?
Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels
Newcastle have been a fascinating side to follow over the opening six rounds.
They started the season with two impressive wins over the Roosters and Tigers, where Jake Clifford and Adam Clune combined beautifully and the Knights pack dominated in yardage to average 1785.5 running metres per game.
Over the last month, that’s all slowed down. Newcastle have managed just 1355 avg. run metres in the last four games – a significant drop off. I’ve given myself some homework this week to figure out where Newcastle are getting it wrong in yardage. One theory is that Chris Randall – who’s doing an admirable job in Jayden Brailey’s absence – is perhaps putting a ceiling on the Knights go-forward around the ruck this year.
Per Stats Insider, the Knights have scored just two of their 17 tries through the middle third of the field in 2022. Only the Tigers (one of 11) have found less points around the ruck this year. While Randall is getting through plenty of defensive work (avg. 44 tackles per game with a 96.4% efficiency) and providing reasonable service, his lack of creativity from dummy-half is limiting the impact of Newcastle’s ball carriers.
I highlighted this as an issue for the Sea Eagles a few weeks ago and since then we’ve seen Dylan Walker and Karl Lawton wreak havoc for Manly through the middle from the bench. Newcastle have Kurt Mann who’s had some nice moments distributing from first-receiver but I’m not sure he’s doing enough to offset Randall’s low attacking output. There’s also a concern that with Mann (avg. 78 run metres per game) and Brodie Jones (avg. 77m) playing big minutes in the pack, Newcastle don’t have the yardage men to get by with a stand-and-pass dummy-half.
The Randall theory lends itself to another telling stat coming out of Newcastle in 2022; six rounds in and Ponga is averaging 43.25 receipts per game – easily the most by any fullback this year. For reference, James Tedesco averages 31, Ryan Papenhuyzen; 33 and Clint Gutherson 35.5 per game. There’s clearly a plan to get Ponga on the ball in attack and it’s something Jase has already highlighted this season as an element that is still developing.
Ponga getting more involved in attack is a good thing but where and when he’s taking those 43 receipts per game is what Newcastle are still figuring out. He’s trying to inject himself from first-receiver around the ruck but it’s not quite clicking at the moment. The Knights don’t need to win this one for it to be considered a successful game. If they improve their yardage and if Clune, Clifford and Ponga can get 80 minutes closer to finding that balance in attack, Newcastle should still rock up to work happy on Monday.
It’s a different story for Parramatta. No disrespect to Newcastle, but this is a game the Eels should win. That being said – so was last week’s game against the Tigers.
History tells us Parramatta have a howler in them every once in a while. We’ve been over this before at RLW – the Eels try to go around teams before working through them first and it makes for a frantic brand of attacking footy. We can put their 69% completion rate in Round 6 – by far their worst effort of 2022 – down to exactly this.
History also tells us Parramatta are good for a bounce-back. They’ve been a top six side for three seasons straight now, and in each one of those seasons they’ve dropped a game to a bottom eight side they should’ve beaten. In the following games, however, the Eels have always responded. Their record after those three shock losses reads like this: 30+ point wins over Canberra and St. George Illawarra – two teams who profile very similar to this current Knights side – and a 14-0 win over the Melbourne Storm.
If you’re a stats guy and you like following form lines to make your bets, the Eels 13+ margin is looking very tempting at $2.75 right now.
Head Noise – What’s living rent free in my head this week?
Nothing rattles footy fans (and players) more than when the head noise kicks in. To avoid this as best we can, I’m writing down anything ringing around my head each week and hopefully we can figure a few things out along the way.
– Liam Martin’s try assist
– Liam Knights & Hame Sele
– Lachlan Ilias
– Cleary running the ball
– Brad Schneider’s defence
– Josh Addo-Carr’s efforts
Liam Martin’s try assist – It was nearly my play of the round last week and it’s been running through my head since Friday.
That’s as good a catch and pass as you’ll see from any genuine ballplayer in the competition, let alone an edge forward regarded for his strong carries and bruising tackle tech. I’m loving the development of Martin but I didn’t know he had skills like this in his repertoire. With Viliame Kikau leaving next year the Panthers will need a new strike forward on the edge and Martin is putting his hand up right now.
Liam Knight and Hame Sele – South Sydney’s bench forwards haven’t really been a talking point over the last few years. Tom Burgess was immense playing from the pine in patches last year but the forward rotation hasn’t necessarily been an area of strength for the Rabbitohs in recent memory. Maybe that’s what made the efforts of these two stand out for me in Round 6:
Knight – 40 minutes, 21 carries, 202 running metres, 106 post-contact metres, 3 tackle busts, one offload, 16 tackles, one miss.
Sele – 25 minutes, 11 carries, 128 running metres, 53 post-contact metres, one tackle bust, eight tackles no misses and the fastest average play the ball speeding the game of 2.23 seconds.
Excellent impact from two guys who weren’t in most punters’ first-choice 17 for the Rabbitohs this season.
Lachlan Ilias – There’s a bit of Souths theme this week but I couldn’t not put this in here:
Of all the things Ilias needed to do in the wake of Adam Reynolds, engaging the line like he did was it. The brilliance of Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell was more often than not given a chance to shine thanks to Reynolds’ work in the lead up, and actions like this are extremely encouraging for a rookie halfback. Ilias isn’t afraid to wear a shot from the defence as he digs into the line, and this is an extreme example of the space created by Ilias’ involvements. He’s getting better at it each week and as a Souths fan I’m loving it.
