NRL Finals: Storm v Panthers Preview

This rematch of the 2020 NRL Grand Final between the Storm and Panthers is happening a week earlier than most expected. Still, while Penrith may have stumbled in recent weeks, you can’t rule out an upset on Saturday night.

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2021 Head-to-head Recap

Nathan Cleary hasn’t played the Melbourne Storm since the Penrith Panthers lost the 2020 NRL Grand Final.

He wasn’t available for their 12-10 win in Round 3. Nor was he fit when the Panthers struggled to stay within touching distance as the Storm made their 37-10 win in Round 20 look relatively simple.

Round 3 is a loooong time ago now but it’s a game that won’t be forgotten any time soon. A rare battle across 80 minutes between two top tier teams this season, the final play of the game is one that will be shown in highlight reels for years to come.

Notably, the Storm didn’t lose another game following this defensive effort by Viliame Kikau until Round 24.

Similar to the 2020 NRL Grand Final, Melbourne flew out to an early lead in Round 20. Penrith scrambled well in defence to shut down a handful of dangerous early attacking raids. However, they simply gave up too many opportunities and it wasn’t long before the Storm started to turn them into points.

Cameron Munster found success in destabilizing the left edge and used Josh Addo-Carr both with his passing and kicking game. That kept Dylan Edwards on his toes. Having run him from sideline to sideline, Addo-Carr eventually put boot to ball himself to produce a rare winger-to-winger try.

The two teams look a lot different this week, though. Cleary is there for a start. Ryan Papenhuyzen is back to his best as well. While the Storm made it look easy with the ball the last time these two clubs met, the Panthers are expected to make things a lot more difficult on Saturday night.

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Deciding Factors

Storm – Closing in on Cleary

The Melbourne Storm’s left edge had a night out two weeks ago against the Sea Eagles. Melbourne scored five tries down that side of the field with Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen doing most of the damage in an ominous sign for Penrith’s right edge in this one. But Penrith also need to worry about their left edge. And their middle. With Jahrome Hughes, Brandon Smith and Harry Grant all as dangerous as Munster and Papenhuyzen on their day, the Storm have so many ways to hurt you so I’m not focussing on their attack here. We know Melbourne have points in them and for that reason their defence is the deciding factor for me on Saturday night. 

In particular how they defend Penrith halfback Nathan Cleary.

Melbourne already have runs on the board when it comes to ‘shutting down’ star players. The way they systematically managed Tom Trbojevic the last two times they played Manly have proven that, and I’m on the lookout for more of the same this week on Cleary. His kicking game in particular is the catalyst for almost everything good Penrith have produced this season and the Storm need to limit his opportunities to impact the game with his boot. As was the case with Trbojevic it will be a team effort, but there are a few individuals who might make it more personal on Saturday night. 

1. Christian Welch

You’ll be hard pressed to find a better clean-up merchant in the competition. Welch moves incredibly well for a man of his size and more importantly he’s a smart defender. 

This repeat action against Manly back in Round 21 highlights both qualities perfectly.

He’s off the line quickly here to make first contact with Morgan Harper in the first tackle and finds himself at second marker as Harper plays the ball. Tom Trbojevic tries to sneak down the short side and create the extra man on the following play but Welch pumps the legs to pressure him from the inside, preventing Trbojevic from squaring up Kenny Bromwich and creating the overlap. It’s only a minor involvement but over 80 minutes Welch wins so many of these little contests for his team and it will be the case again on Saturday night. 

It’s unlikely we see Cleary in actions like this but the principles are the same. Welch has the smarts to react to what Penrith are doing around the ruck and the engine to pressure Penrith’s key players in those moments. Whether he’s hounding Cleary from the inside as he ball-plays across field or scrambling from marker to apply kick pressure, expect Welch to be in the frame more often than not when Cleary takes possession.

2. Brandon Smith

It’s a similar prospect for Smith as it is for Welch, although I’m expecting Cheese to do it all with a little more aggression and not for quite as long. The luxury of having Harry Grant on the bench means Smith can come out like a bull at the gate and his efforts in pressuring Cleary to begin the game will be crucial in any momentum Melbourne can earn early on. 

Again there’s nothing flashy to break down, just good technique and effort.

Manly get a quick play-the-ball and Trbojevic looks to run near the ruck as he has done all year. Smith holds his position at A defender and invites Trbojevic into the line before shooting out and taking Trbojevic’s legs as he tries to skip across field. Welch is there with strong contact over the top which puts Trbojevic on his back, and Smith gets himself set at second marker for the fifth tackle kick. He works hard to beat the Manly blockers and pressures Cherry-Evans into an average kick which Papenhuyzen takes on the fly. Melbourne go 45 meters with that possession and pin Manly on their own goal line in the ensuing set. Momentum earned. 

It’s a credit to the Melbourne Storm that I haven’t even mentioned names like Dale Finucane, Jesse Bromwich and Felise Kaufusi in a piece about defence and effort. Across the park they can be relied on to do a job and while Penrith have been dominant through the middle all year, Melbourne will certainly have their say on that come Saturday night. 

It’s one win apiece for Melbourne and Penrith this season, although interestingly Cleary didn’t feature in either of those games. His addition is a huge bonus for the Panthers in this one although I think Melbourne have the troops – and the game plan – to limit his influence and from there the scoreboard should take care of itself.

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Panthers – Taking risks

The Penrith Panthers have dominated games this season with their patience in attack and dominance in defence. Both have been evident throughout their post-Origin dip in form, but only that dominant defence remains as a consistent match-winner. With the ball, Penrith have become somewhat one-dimensional.

The Panthers lead the NRL in yardage with 1,811 running metres per game. Whether it be through the middle or on the back of Nathan Cleary’s NRL-high 536 kicking metres per game, they get up the field and stay there. Sets either end in points (26.7 per game – 4th), forced dropouts (2.2 per game – 1st) or Cleary hangs up a kick that even if the opposition defuses, then requires them to travel 95+ metres up the field to score themselves. It all translates into an NRL-high 31.8 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line per game as the Panthers patiently build pressure and wait for the opposition to crack.

However, the opposition isn’t cracking in September.

Now playing against the top teams in the NRL, the Panthers have scored just 18 points across the last two weeks. As much as they trust their patient approach to build points, teams that make it this far into the season trust their goal line defence to hold them out. It’s no coincidence that the four remaining teams all rank inside the top five in points conceded per game.

I’ve mentioned Penrith’s Plan B before. It was a question of whether or not they had one at the time. This group did it so easy throughout the year that swaying from the game plan was rarely necessary. They will need a Plan B this week, though.

If there is one team that hitting the ad-line and waiting for an opposition mistake won’t work against, it’s the Storm. If it becomes a battle of patience, possession and execution under pressure, Craig Bellamy’s side will play with the advantage.

Penrith need to throw something different at this Melbourne defence. That something different isn’t necessarily something new, though.

While thrashing teams and playing with big leads throughout the opening 12 rounds of the NRL season, Penrith played with the opposition. They trialled new trick shots knowing that they had the lead – and the defence – to cope if the shot didn’t come off.

We saw the evolution of Cleary’s new pass across the first nine rounds. It started with this ineffective and clunky effort in Round 4:

By Round 9 and playing with a big lead over the Sharks, Cleary had started to get deeper into the line before throwing the trick shot and this one ended up with Matt Burton crossing the stripe:

There is one that hasn’t popped up all that often since they first tried it in Round 4.

It’s a deliberate switch. Mitch Kenny motions for Isaah Yeo to wrap around while James Fisher-Harris plays the ball before he jumps out from dummy half and does his best to engage the marker and A defender. It’s certainly not perfect and it will be a lot more effective with the threat of Api Koroisau running the ball. Still, Kenny drops Yeo back off behind the ruck and the Panthers left edge swings into action.

It could have looked a lot different had Daly Cherry-Evans not shot out of the line to shut down Jarome Luai. Matt Burton responds by changing his line into the gap Cherry-Evans has left in behind which forces Moses Suli to turn in. The right pass now would have been to Viliame Kikau who then tips onto Brian To’o. However, Burton is good enough to step off his right foot and throw a pass across his body out to To’o who finishes in the corner.

It’s the sort of switch play that can ask some different questions of the Storm defence if the Panthers can execute it. Even if Cherry-Evans doesn’t shoot out, the Panthers can create an overlap. If Koroisau can drag the second marker across before sending Yeo his way with Cleary hanging off Luai’s inside shoulder, that Burton/Kikau shape will provide Luai with two options depending on how the defence responds.

There is a world where Penrith’s patient approach is enough to win this game. The Storm are comfortable in an arm-wrestle, though. Ivan Cleary will give his side a better chance of victory if he encourages a more expansive approach that forces different decisions and throws some doubt into the defensive line.

~ Jason

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