Most of the NRL off-season boxes have been ticked so the 2021 season can’t be far away.
Players training the house down ✅
Off-field incidents ✅
Horror Round 1 predicted teams ✅
Blasphemous Top 8 predictions ✅
Contract sagas ✅
But before we get into season preview territory (that’s coming next week), here are 21 things I’m looking at when it all kicks off on March 11.
1. RugbyLeagueWriters.com
We started Rugby League Writers while the game was in lockdown and the response was better than we could have imagined. Regular visitors, a steady increase in email subscribers and feedback along the lines of “we need more of this in rugby league” kept us going through to the 2020 NRL Grand Final.
But we’re looking to take it all a bit further in 2021, and that involves adding a subscription option.
Paywalls are the devil for most NRL fans. However, they are the way forward if we ever want to get close to the quality of coverage seen in the NBA, NFL etc. The fact of the matter is, controversy gets clicks and genuine on-field analysis does not. Not enough to pull in the amount required to make website-changing amounts of money through nothing more than ads, anyway.
If you’re one that really does want more on-field analysis in the NRL content you consume, it won’t cost more than the price of a coffee per month here. We will still churn out plenty of free content for those not convinced about parting with their hard-earned as well.
We’re still finalizing the subscription option before adding it to the site. In the meantime, join at a free level now to access all free content at RugbyLeagueWriters.com all season, receive our weekly newsletter before each round, and also receive an exclusive early bird offer to premium content before Round 1.
2. Harry Grant & the Storm
The Melbourne Storm are a joy to watch at their best. Few teams make it look so easy and the subtleties to their play make each game worth watching two or three times over. But that was with Cameron Smith behind the ruck…
He’s called ‘the accountant’ because of his physical stature, but his style of play is closer to an architect. Smith designs sets long before the first tackle and oversees their construction through to the try-scoring or game-sealing play. He’s a genius and the Storm won’t be the same without him.
They will, however, still be very good with Harry Grant back in purple.
Flabbergasted when Grant’s name wasn’t mentioned in any preseason ‘Players to Watch’ pieces before 2020 kicked off, it was no surprise to see him named as the Dally M Rookie of the Year by the end of it.
With 413 fewer first-grade caps to his name, Grant doesn’t see the game quite like Smith. But he is more dangerous out of dummy half as a runner. The 22-year-old is intent on getting forward and reaching the advantage line when he darts out from behind the ruck. It looks as though he’s going to tumble over every time he gets downhill at speed. He survey’s what is in front of him, and already has an excellent feel for when to go himself or distribute the ball elsewhere.
That’s not to say he can’t carve out a try from the 1st tackle in Smith-like fashion. Oscar highlighted this beauty in just the fifth start of Grant’s NRL career:
It’s ridiculous that the Storm can move on from Smith and install the best dummy half prospect in recent years in his place. Or play Brandon Smith, for that matter. They’re the envy of every club. Good or bad, they’re going to be interesting to watch all season long.
3. Latrell
It has been quite the 24 months for Latrell Mitchell. No player has received the sort of fluctuating coverage he has since the beginning of the 2019 NRL season.
In May 2019 after scoring 26 points against the Wests Tigers, some experts called him the best player in the game. A year later when coming out of lockdown to restart the NRL season, something as innocuous as hands on his hips during a training session sparked conversations around his training habits and ability to perform at fullback.
Admittedly, Mitchell didn’t perform at his best in the early rounds. Shortly after came calls for Bennett to end the fullback experiment and throw him back into the centres. But Bennett and Mitchell knew better with the Bunnies #1 eventually dominating from the back before a hamstring injury ruled him out for the rest of the season in Round 16.
Remarkably, with all that he has achieved throughout his career and the form he displayed towards the end of last season, Mitchell is flying into 2021 under the radar. Not from a name-recognition point of view; Latrell’s name will draw comments and controversy for a long time yet. Rather, Mitchell’s expected production has barely rated a mention when discussing the best fullbacks in the game, let alone the best players.
He scored three tries and handed out five try assists in his last six-and-a-half games of 2020. And that is just what shows up on the stats pages. His hands out the back of a shift are among the best in the competition and the gravity at which he attracts the defence only grew stronger the more time he spent improving as a fullback.
He’s unlikely to pile up running metres. Although I do think that is one area he can and will improve on in 2021. If he adds some more yardage to what he already offers with the ball in hand in good ball areas, Mitchell will be one of the most complete fullbacks in the NRL this season.
4. Wayne’s World
With Mitchell firing and the South Sydney Rabbitohs looking to improve on their 2020 season, this shapes as Wayne Bennett’s last chance to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy. No matter what he chooses to do after this season, there is little chance he ends up as the head coach of a team ready to contend for the premiership in 2022.
Bennett will play the possibility of this being his final season down. Of course, that is until he needs to place himself in the news to shield his team or a particular player from unwanted attention. Because that is what Bennett does, he’s a players coach, and regardless of whether or not the game is getting past him tactically, his side will turn up every week and play for him.
We saw how he galvanised the Queensland State of Origin team last year. Now imagine how much the players will lift knowing they have the opportunity to send out arguably the greatest coach of all-time with another premiership…
They’re my tip to win it all this year.
5. Broncos bouncing back
Few combinations of club, coach and playing group have ever disappointed as much as the 2020 Brisbane Broncos – if any.
They’re one of the biggest and most consistent clubs in the competition, but the Broncos were made to look amateur off the field last season. On the field, Anthony Seibold couldn’t get the playing group to buy into the game plan he was preaching (we still don’t know what that was and I’m not sure the players do either). Key parts to that playing group have now left along with Seibold, and many of those that remain come into 2021 grossly out of form.
Seibold arrived in Brisbane with a plan and it turned out to be his downfall. He didn’t adjust to players or performance. He continued to force a style on a playing group it didn’t suit, and it was no surprise to witness some very questionable efforts throughout the year.
Kevin Walters isn’t an ideal replacement; his ceiling as a coach isn’t at a premiership-winning level. But he is what the Broncos need now. He will improve the feeling around the club and isn’t married to any ideas or game plans.
Walters is flexible. Flexible enough to not only have Corey Oates training in the backrow during the preseason, but to also entertain the idea of having him start the year in reserve grade. The likes of Anthony Milford and Jamayne Isaako, among others ‘play what is in front of you’ players, will be allowed to play their more natural game without first processing the onslaught of information thrown at them before each game last year.
David Fifita is a massive loss, but the players that remain will perform better than in 2020. The handbrake has been released. While plenty enjoyed the Broncos winning the wooden spoon last season, that party is over.
6. Parramatta picking up discarded pieces
High-quality depth has been an issue for the Parramatta Eels recently. They have finished inside the top five of the NRL ladder in three of the last four years, but each time, the finals have proved a challenge too tough. For the most part, Week 2 of the finals has felt like their ceiling long before September.
They’ve taken a different approach to their recruitment this year, though.
Isaiah Papali’i, Nathaniel Roache, Keegan Hipgrave and Bryce Cartwright were all thrown on the scrapheap by their former clubs. All make for intriguing storylines at Parramatta in one way or another.
Papali’i being shown the door at Mt Smart still perplexes me. The talent is there. He’s a player that thrives on consistency and getting on the field each week. Covid, a lack of reserve grade and playing in a different position every other week made that difficult in 2020. Papali’i is a Cheap Buy of the Year candidate if he can crack the side early into the season.
Roache only having 26 games to his name simply isn’t fair. He’s made for playing dummy half with how the game is played today. Roache needs to play games regardless of the grade.
Hipgrave, for all his shortcomings in defence, is a physical player. He enjoys the contact and keeps coming back for more. Very much a project for Brad Arthur, he can provide the Eels with something off the bench if his head is in the game.
We don’t need to say much about Cartwright. Highly talented but the opposite to Hipgrave in his willingness to put his body in front and take a shot, this is a low-risk, high-reward signing for the Eels. The 26-year-old has 12 months to save his NRL career.
7. Penrith’s luck
Nothing changes next year and why can’t it stay like this for the next five years? You would never say you’re going to win a comp, but look at all their ages.
Panthers chief executive Brian Fletcher
It’s a quote Brian Fletcher would surely take back if given the chance.
A lot changes. No matter how tight-knit a young playing group might seem, opportunities and increased pay packets on offer elsewhere are always a threat. The Penrith Panthers have lost a handful of players already.
Still, the majority of Penrith’s Minor Premiership-winning squad returns for 2021. That offers plenty of hope to go one better in 2022. However, premiership-winning teams need a little bit of luck.
Luck in the injury department, in particular.
The injury gods shone a largely healthy light upon the Panthers in 2020. Key players remained on the field for the majority of the season. Their cohesion developed nicely as a result. Remarkably, Penrith had their full squad fit, firing and available for selection in the week of the Grand Final.
They’re unlikely to be that lucky again in 2021.
Nathan Cleary, Stephen Crichton, Jarome Luai, Isaah Yeo and Kurt Capewell all played State of Origin footy or spent time in camp at the end of the season, too. That is three more high-intensity games those players (and possibly others) need to get through injury-free in 2021 while Penrith’s Origin reps will miss club footy, unlike 2020.
Losing the 2020 Grand Final doesn’t have the same ‘that might have been their best chance’ feel to it that the Canberra Raiders did in 2019, but it will be a lot more difficult for the Panthers this season. They need to clear hurdles every long-term successful team (see: Storm, Roosters) do if they’re to earn another crack at the Provan-Summons Trophy.
Will the development of young players be enough to clear them?
8. Matthew Dufty
My thoughts on Matt Dufty changed more than my undies throughout the 2020 NRL season. I’ve been over this before, but for those that are new, my relationship with Dufty is frosty.
First of all:
Dufty isn’t a good fullback. I don’t know how many more times he can be dropped and crowbarred back into the team a few weeks later.
— Jason Oliver (@JasonNRL) June 14, 2020
Soon after:
Matt Dufty playing well for three consecutive games feels very weird.#NRLRoostersDragons
— Jason Oliver (@JasonNRL) June 26, 2020
The key for Dufty is not to negate every offensive positive with a defensive negative. He contributed a combined 28 tries or try assists in 2020 per Fox Sports Lab, but the diminutive fullback also led all #1’s with 21 try causes.
Little is expected of him one-on-one. He’s not going to stop James Tedesco, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck or Tom Trbojevic once they’re streaking in the backfield very often. But that is something for Dufty to take up with his teammates in the defensive line in front of him. It’s around the ruck at the goal line that he needs to improve.
Perhaps better still, Anthony Griffin could look to plug that gap at A with a more traditional defensive line rather than leaving Dufty vulnerable.
Dufty finally started to consistently produce with the ball in hand last season. Yet, the Dragons haven’t engaged in an extension. How he plays and the influence has on the Red V’s overall defence is something to monitor early on in the year.
9. Joseph Tapine
If you’ve ridden the Joseph Tapine roller-coaster since his debut in 2014, you’ve thrown up multiple times and more than likely considered attracting the attention of the attendant and asking to get off. It’s been a rocky road—one filled with pleasant inclines followed by sharp and sudden drops. But no incline has reached a higher point than in 2020.
This try in Week 2 of the finals is the peak so far:
Tapine has always had an element of hype surrounding his name and he lived up to it more than ever in 2020. Now, Tapine needs to deliver a consistent 2021.
10. Whichever Wests Tigers turns up
Good or bad, the Wests Tigers are one of the most fascinating teams in the NRL. They can pile up points and play out a thriller, or they can produce the sort of performance that promotes a barrage of comments across all social media channels at a rate no other club can.
Ironically, given their penchant for finishing ninth, the perception is that there is never a middle ground. It’s all on, or it’s time to blow the whole thing up. That might change this season, though.
Finally, the club is sticking with a coach. Whether or not Michael Maguire is the man to dig the Tigers out of this finals-free hole remains to be seen. However, his re-signing gives them their best chance. He provides the club with some consistency in the coaches box not seen since Tim Sheens left in 2012.
With a lot of good players but none that occupy elite territory heading into this season, we may see an improvement from this group without it translating into more total W’s. Instead, we’re looking out for consistency and sustainable plans.
I received some passionate feedback after failing to buy into their incredible early-season defence in 2018. Conceding just 6.5 points per game throughout the first six rounds to be 4th on the ladder, Wests ended the season conceding an average of 19.1 points per game while falling six competition points short of the Top 8. While effective early, Ivan Cleary’s scramble-heavy defence couldn’t be sustained over a full season.
Conversely, “lucky” came up too often in my notes while Wests scored 24.5 points per game in the first half of last season to be 7th on the ladder after Round 10. They scored just 19.5 points per game from there to fall to 11th, again, six points out of the Top 8.
Not every win is created equal, and the Tigers have proved as much over the last three years. But nor is every loss. They don’t feel like it minutes after the final whistle, but a good loss can be worth reading into more than a bad win at times. That’s where I think we’re heading with the Tigers in 2021.
This is the year Maguire needs to find a happy medium between attack and defence while having his side produce in both facets consistently. If he can achieve that – even without an improvement in the W column – this season can still be a success.
Side note: Very excited at the possibility of seeing Daine Laurie play regular first-grade football.
MORE: Leilua Brothers Linking Up
11. Don’t sleep on the Roosters
A lot is being made of Kyle Flanagan being shown the door and the Sydney Roosters “looking for a 7” for this season. This, the Flanagan that failed to fire consistently after Victor Radley’s injury with Trent Robinson eventually dropping the youngster from the side in Round 13. Who knows whether Flanagan would have played again had Lachlan Lam not left the field 28 minutes into Round 14.
Being without a recognised and experienced halfback isn’t ideal, but the Roosters still boast one of the best squads in the NRL.
James Tedesco is considered the number one player in the game. Meanwhile, arguments can be made for Luke Keary and Joseph Manu being at the top of their respective positions. Daniel Tupou played Origin football last year and is a top tier winger in the competition. Josh and Brett Morris, while sporting a few more grey hairs every week, are still reliable performers.
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Siosiua Taukeiaho, Nat Butcher and Lindsay Collins make up an excellent prop rotation with an in-form Angus Crichton and up-and-coming Sitili Tupouniua on the edges. Victor Radley returns for 2021 as well.
Question marks over Jake Friend are fair, but Sam Verrills is a proven backup already.
Lachlan Lam might not offer Flanagan’s goal kicking, but he’s more capable with the ball-in-hand.
There is still Boyd Cordner, Billy Smith, Joseph Suaalii, Sam Walker, Matt Ikuvalu and Daniel Suluka-Fifita to consider as well.
A fully fit and healthy Roosters 17 can be argued as the best in the NRL. They might need a little more injury luck than in recent seasons, but this is a premiership-contending team.
12. Sharks halves battle
I have “Shaun Johnson apologist” in my Twitter bio, so it’s safe to say that he occupies one spot in my Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks halves pairing when he returns. Just who is playing alongside Johnson by the end of the NRL season is something to monitor, though.
Chad Townsend is the experienced campaigner and likely first choice, but his form in 2020 doesn’t guarantee him the jumper. Not with Connor Tracey and Braydon Trindall knocking on the door behind him.
Trindall, in particular, is one I’ll be keeping an eye on. He is raw and has a lot of work to do in the game management and control side of things, but he displayed some positive signs in limited minutes last season. He used a short ball to set up his own try and some quick hands to help get a teammate over in Cronulla’s win over the Dragons in the upcoming season’s first trial match.
The Sharks are at somewhat of a crossroads: Johnson is off-contract at the end of this season and will be 31-years old heading into the next, the pack isn’t consistent in either players named or their performance, and poor John Morris appears to be on thin ice with Shane Flanagan a chance at returning to the club. If the tide turns towards a mini rebuild and young players are favoured over those with more experience, Trindall’s development is a major factor in the club’s future.
13. The new rules…
As a doubter of most of the new rules introduced for 2021, I’m putting them at 13 on this list – my lucky number. Followers on Twitter know my general feeling for the rules, and more importantly, my disdain for how they’re being decided. So, I’ll keep this brief.Two-point field goal for attempts 40+ metres: This rule came as a result of fan mail sent to PVL. Nobody asked for it, and few teams will use it. Although, somebody landing a match-winner in the final seconds would make for a thriller…
Six-again for 10-metre infringements: A disaster waiting to happen. On the field, teams will sacrifice a tackle when the opposition is working out of their own end and coming up short of the 10 makes that easier. Off the field, it won’t be long before “cOnSiStEnCy” and “FARCE!” become weekly complaints from people at home, and soon, those that write the headlines.
Penalties for breaking scrums early: Overdue. It’s really the only rule that needed to be introduced for 2021. While a good rule, the next reduces its effectiveness…
Play-the-ball restarts if the ball or player with the ball goes over the sideline: Winners – fans that spend too much time looking at who packs a scrum and how much they push. Losers – fans that enjoy tries and set-piece plays from one of the best attacking opportunities available in the game.
The Bunker will now review replays after an on-field referee awards a try, but a conversion attempt will not be allowed until it gets the green light: There are a few positives to this one. 1) We won’t be forced to sit through replays that show a clear try on the first replay, 2) Commentators may even break down tries rather than pick apart the referees decision, 3) It cuts out dead time (not to be confused with an apparent desperation the NRL has to “speed the game up”). It will take some getting used to and “we can’t celebrate” will be a massive talking point in the early weeks. It will barely rate a mention a month into the season, though.
Injured players will be interchanged if a trainer asks play to be stopped: Sounds good on the face of it but need to see it in action for player welfare reasons before giving it a big tick of approval.
Inconclusive captain’s challenge not docked for unsuccessful attempt: Smart.
Handover when a player does not make a genuine attempt to play the ball correctly with their foot: We may see this handover less that field goals from 40-metres out.
14. Warriors in Aus (again)
The New Zealand Warriors are kicking off the 2021 NRL season in Australia and will remain there until at least April.
Stephen Kearney and Todd Payten inspired the players and used 2020’s season-long camp-like situation to their advantage. Payten specifically told the players to make the most of this once-in-a-lifetime experience. In the end, their performances on the field suggest that is exactly what they did.
But now it’s a twice-in-a-lifetime experience. That motivation tactic won’t work. Nathan Brown – who needs to start this season relatively well if he’s to begin chipping away at my chronic scepticism of him as a coach – must find a new way to motivate this group. The addition of some exciting new talent and the prospects of a return to the Top 8 won’t be enough to get through 25 rounds of football (if that is how long the club remains in Australia) alone.
Now to sit and desperately hope they aren’t signing Nathan Brown as his replacement…
— Jason Oliver (@JasonNRL) June 20, 2020
Still, #ItsOurYear.
Lets Gone Warriors.
15. Tohu Harris in the middle
Tohu Harris finally started to get the credit he deserves in 2020. Outstanding across all 20 games yet still the most underrated player in the NRL, Harris will play a crucial part in where the Warriors end up on the ladder in 2021.
Where he plays will be the biggest factor.
He should play in the middle given what we saw last season. Capable of trucking the ball up as a metre-eater or distributing at first or second receiver, Harris fits the mould for the ideal modern-day middle forward. Wayde Egan isn’t dangerous enough from dummy-half to create regular opportunities, Chanel Harris-Tavita is still finding his feet in first-grade while Kodi Nikorima plays his best footy when he’s the second or a pop-up option in attack.
As a ball-player through the middle of the field, Harris’ gravity will open up opportunities for all three of the above players. At the same time, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck can go back to doing what he does best – supporting and running the football. The added focus the Warriors put on Tuivasa-Sheck’s ball-playing didn’t pay off last season. Harris can fill that void.
13. Tohu Harris is the first thing I will be looking out for on the first Team List Tuesday of the 2021 NRL season.
MORE: The curious case of Ben Murdoch-Masila
16. Reimis Smith
Reimis Smith comes off as the quintessential Melbourne Storm signing. A relative unknown when put against most wingers in the NRL and likely to be on a cap-friendly contract, it won’t be surprising to see Smith given the first crack at filling the void left by Suliasi Vunivalu on the right wing.
No club scored fewer points per game in 2019 and 2020 than the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs. Still, Smith managed 16 tries in 38 games.
He’s an underrated ball-carrier and strong finisher. Smith can collect a high-ball in attack, too. The 23-year-old looks set for a career year to kick off his stint with the Storm.
17. Macca’s value at the Dragons
The Dragons willingly moving on from Cameron McInnes and instead choosing to sign Andrew McCullough for three years is a head-scratcher. Some of the Red V faithful are scratching scull after hearing McInnes landed at the Sharks for just $550,000 a season. Nonetheless, with McInnes’ Dragons career now over after rupturing his ACL, it’s on McCullough to prove his value as Anthony Griffin’s first-choice hooker.
Griffin talks about McCullough’s style and managing the game from dummy half. They’re not the first two things that come to mind when thinking about what Macca offers a football side. As early-season contenders for the wooden spoon, how the 31-year-old integrates into his new side will play a big part in where they finish up on the ladder after Round 25.
18. Fa’asuamaleaui without Smith
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is one of the best young players in the NRL. The Gold Coast Titans were right to offer him an inflated deal to get him to the club – he’s that good. However, it will be interesting to see how effective he can be without Cameron Smith pulling the strings from dummy half.
There is no doubt that Fa’asuamaleaui can still have a positive impact on a team without Smith. He’s light on his feet for a man of his size and has no problems getting up the field. No-frills in 2020, the 20-year-old only released two offloads all season, instead, focusing on yardage and a quick play-the-ball. His offload count is something to monitor early.
But Smith’s influence on Fa’asuamaleaui’s form in 2020 is undeniable. The veteran hooker directly assisted on five of his seven tries, played a hand in a sixth while Brandon Smith helped on the seventh.
The Titans are improving, but if there is one area they have failed to fill so far, it’s dummy half. It’s going to impact Fa’asuamaleaui’s performance if he plays a similar role to that he played in Melbourne.
Perhaps another call to Cameron Smith is in order? Or Brandon, for that matter.
19. Tommy’s Sea Eagles
The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles are a different team with Tom Trbojevic on the field. Whether or not he’s cracking 200+ running metres, scoring tries, putting teammates over the line or simply attracting the defence as a decoy out the back, Manly’s results over the last two years have largely been decided on the fitness of their fullback.
They have played 46 games across the last two seasons and Trbojevic’s influence is both impressive and a concern.
| With Trbojevic | Without Trbojevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 14 | 3 |
| Losses | 8 | 21 |
| Points per 80 min | 22.6 | 18.7 |
The 24-year-old is said to be “ready for Round 1”. Just how long he lasts after that opening whistle will once again define Manly’s NRL season.
With him, the halves pairing of Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran (another injury concern, mind you) makes for an attractive spine. As a big fan of both Taniela Paseka and Josh Aloiai, the Sea Eagles pack a punch in the middle of the field too. But the effectiveness of their attack revolves around Tom Trbojevic. Their Top 8 hopes revolve around him.
20. International Rugby League
Self-inflicted or not, International Rugby League continues to take one step forward and two steps back.
Tonga’s rise in 2017 wasn’t capitalized on enough. They played just twice in 2018 and once throughout the dedicated end-of-season international footy period.
It looked as though Mate Ma’a Tonga wouldn’t play at all in 2019 given their off-field issues. But in putting together the Tonga Invitational team, we saw one of the most memorable games ever when the red wave triumphed over the Kangaroos.
Covid put an end to any international footy in 2020 and reduced the impact of Tonga’s historic win. Now, with Samoa threatening to go on their own Tonga-like rise, they have their own off-field issues to work through.
The 2021 Rugby League World Cup is also still in serious doubt.
Please, IRL. Play games, draw crowds, entertain, and somehow find a way to do it all again in 2022 as well.
21. Crowds, Magic Round & Footy Fans
The crowds started to return towards the end of last season. However, even with the rest of the world watching in envy as some lucky footy fans filed into stadiums, it never felt like crowds were back. (They won’t truly be back until people not attending games begin to complain on social media that others aren’t attending games.)
One place we will see footy fans in all of their glory: Magic Round. It’s crazy to think this concept wasn’t universally welcomed when first announced in 2019. Now, those that made it to Suncorp are desperate to get back. Many across the ditch have their fingers crossed for an increasingly unlikely Trans-Tasman bubble too.
Whether it’s a rainy Thursday Night at Brookvale, a packed Suncorp on Friday, all three grades on a Saturday or a Sunny Sunday at Leichhardt, everybody is looking for a sense of normality. That comes with attending games, strapping in for Super Saturday at the local, or engaging with like-minded footy fans. It feels like we’re getting back there in 2021 – *touch wood*.
Field Goal From 40 Metres
With 14 of the 16 teams covered above, here are two things prepared earlier on the rest: