NRL 2021: Newcastle Knights Season Review

The Newcastle Knights navigated another disrupted NRL season to match their efforts in 2020 with another 7th-placed finish in 2021.

Here’s your Newcastle Knights Season Review for 2021:

• The Season In Brief: Stats and Summary
• Takeaways From 2021
  • Things I Liked: Ponga popping up, Getting up the field
  • 3-2-1: Mitch Barnett, Connor Watson, Jayden Brailey
  • Summer Notepad: Bailey Hodgson
• Preseason Prediction Throwback
• Way Too Early Thoughts On 2022

---

The Season In Brief

We’re summing up the NRL season in a few words before getting into the nitty-gritty and breaking down some of the key moments in 2021.

By The Numbers

It’s still remarkable to think that the Newcastle Knights finished 15th in scoring with 17.9 points per game and still finished 7th on the NRL ladder. It’s not as though their defence was particularly good either. Newcastle’s 24 points conceded per game ranked 8th in the competition. Provided with plenty of opportunities to attack (28 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line per game) thanks to a decent enough yardage game (1,653 metres per game), the Knights at least put themselves in positions to score which sets them up well for 2022.

Copy: Bar Chart
Infogram

The Season In 200 Words

After finally playing finals football in 2020, everyone expected the same again from Adam O’Brien and the Newcastle Knights. The ridiculous injury toll they handled in that season was behind them and it felt like the Knights could only go upwards from there, but as we now know, a repeat of their seventh-placed finish was all they could manage.

Winning just half of their games in 2021, the Knights again battled injuries with Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best all sidelined or hampered with injuries throughout. It made for a team that struggled to produce reliable and repeatable actions with the ball and Newcastle finished the season with the second-worst offence in the competition as a result.

There were some positives, though. Jayden Brailey made a fist of his first season as captain while the Saifiti brothers came closer to reaching their obvious potential. Midseason recruit Jake Clifford was an astute pickup in a time of need and has kicked on to be a guy Newcastle can build around moving forward with the right players around him. In the end, Newcastle were arguably the ‘best of the rest’ in a season virtually played out against the top six teams.

---

Takeaways From 2021

Things I Liked

Jason picks out a few moments, matches or players that he liked most throughout the 2021 NRL season.

Ponga popping up

This segment is all the more relevant following Mitchell Pearce’s request to leave the club and the possible acceleration of Kalyn Ponga’s move into the #6 jersey.

Ponga’s first stint at five-eighth was a disaster. A desperate coach made a desperate decision that played a part in his sacking later in the year and Ponga struggled to make an impact across his three games in the halves to start the 2019 season. Two seasons later and following a 2021 season that appeared to be played with this move in mind, Ponga is now better suited to the move from #1 to #6.

He’s lethal down the left edge. The Knights scored 41 of their 80 tries down that side of the field and it still felt as though they didn’t explore the left edge often enough. Instead, Ponga popped up on both sides of the field. He got his hands on the ball at first-receiver a lot more than he has done in the past and looked to create more opportunities for himself and others rather than pop up to make the individual play or throw the flashy pass that he has done successfully in the past.

Ponga should be looking for those plays regardless of the number on his back. Passes like these are why he is one of the most dangerous attacking players in the NRL:

However, it’s actions like these that can make him one of the most consistent attacking players in the NRL:

He is targeting the left edge here, but not before he spots a breakdown in the defence. Having seen Tyson Gamble get ever so slightly in front of his line and with Daniel Saifiti running an excellent inside line, Ponga has created an opportunity down the short side. Saifiti’s line ends with a legs tackle which promotes a quick play the ball. With Gamble behind the play and slow to reload in defence, Ponga runs straight for him. He’s quick enough to beat the reloading defence and Payne Haas can’t get off his line to close him down. By forcing Gamble into the tackle Ponga has created a two-on-one overlap and Enari Tuala finishes the job.

In the past, the Knights have methodically worked to spots on the field so they can shift the ball and play Ponga out the back of a block. It worked relatively well at times. However, your ceiling as an attacking team is low with such little variation. With Ponga flatter and on the ball he has the option to run, pass, or set up a play for later in the set or later in the match even, the Knights will open up a menu of options to maximise their attack.

We saw promising signs of Ponga inserting himself into the attack in 2021. While the Pearce news is unexpected and may push Ponga forward a year earlier than anticipated, he prepared well this season. The Knights are a year away from thinking about being genuine premiership contenders. Spending that year developing this new combination in the halves might be for the best.

Getting up the field

It still blows my mind that the Knights played with the second-worst attack in the NRL this season.

Finishing at 7th on the ladder is either an impressive achievement despite the poor performance with the ball or a sad indictment on the game and the gap between the good and bad teams that has been accelerated by a desperate administration. But, this is a Knights season review so we will look at it from the ‘impressive achievement’ angle.

Scoring 17.9 points per game, the Knights struggled to put together repeatable actions all year. A turnover of faces in key playmaking positions played a big part in that, sure. But to be 15th in points per tackle inside the opposition 20-metre line is a significant cause for concern moving forward. Especially if another change to the key playmaking positions eventuates for Round 1 in 2022.

One thing to like, though, is the relative consistency of the middle forwards to get the Knights up the field. Newcastle’s 1,653 running metres per game (7th) translated into 28 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line per game (4th).

It isn’t expansive given Newcastle’s 83.2 one-pass hitups per game (second-most in the NRL) but their yardage game at least provided a flailing attack with opportunities to make plays. There is no use having a high-powered attack if the middle can’t get them up the field so the Knights have ticked the first box in that regard.

Daniel Saifiti continues to serve me humble pie to average 150 running metres per game in 2021.

Jacob Saifiti finished the season in the starting lineup to average 123 metres per game from Round 13 onward.

The perception is that David Klemmer didn’t perform all that well as he jumped from starting to the bench and his minutes fluctuated. However, he still managed 164 running metres per game through the middle.

Mitch Barnett added 126 metres per game when he started at lock, Sauaso Sue picked up 64 running metres per game in limited minutes and Tyson Frizell found 118 metres per game on the edge.

The Knights are limited in their ball-playing options through the middle. Adam O’Brien’s use of Connor Watson throughout the year left me scratching my head at times and his departure only further exacerbates Newcastle’s issues in an area of the game the top teams are really thriving in. However, there are metre-eaters on the roster. Enough to put the likes of Ponga into attacking positions until they find the player that can take them to the next level through the middle.

~ Jason

3-2-1

True rugby league fans will know there’s nothing more legitimate than the Dally M’s 3-2-1 voting system…With that in mind, Oscar picks out three elements from the 2021 season that deserve a mention.

3 – Mitch Barnett

I was pretty keen on Mitch Barnett to begin the season. I highlighted him in the season preview as a guy with plenty of upside after a genuine development year in 2020 saw Barnett establish himself as a powerful ball carrier and an enforcer in defence. The stats from that season however suggested Barnett could also fill a role as a ballplayer, and as it turned out he could. 

Barnett began the season on the left edge and it was immediately clear that Newcastle had spent a summer designing actions for Barnett and his passing game. 

The Knights regularly set up for Barnett in positions like this two passes wide of the ruck. He’s a threat enough with the ball that three Warriors defenders are forced to consider Barnett here which presents Bradman Best with half a hole which Barnett tips him into. In a season where Best couldn’t buy himself a positive involvement in Newcastle’s attack, this was an action we needed to see more of and Barnett was the main provider to begin the season. His pass selection close to the line became one of the more repeatable actions in Newcastle’s attack and it caused nightmares for opposition defences early in the season. 

This one from Round 6 was nice. 

It’s exactly the same as the play against the Warriors in Round Two, except this time it’s Kalyn Ponga instead of Phoenix Crossland sweeping out the back. Ponga gets there so late that Jesse Ramien doesn’t see him coming and jams in on Best to leave a yawning gap on his outside shoulder – try time. 

Maybe I missed something Adam O’Brien didn’t, but I liked what Barnett was doing on that left edge to begin the season. He spent the first eight games there and in that time his yardage was good and he was providing decent offensive output (20+ receipts per game for three tries, two linebreak assists, one try assist) but when Lachlan Fitzgibbon returned from injury Barnett was shuffled into the middle. And then to the bench. And then back to the edge, and then back into the middle again. You get my point. 

As Barnett rotated through positions in the forward pack he wasn’t afforded an opportunity to build combinations with players around him or create repeatable actions in familiar areas of the field. He was by no means ineffective, but just less consistent and comfortable in his attacking involvments. With Connor Watson now gone Barnett is looking more and more likely of starting at #13 for the Knights in 2022 and I’m all for it – so long as he stays there. 

That little pass at the line can be equally effective through the middle if Barnett can begin linking with David Klemmer and the Saifiti brothers around the ruck. It won’t result in Ponga strolling over untouched like it did in Round 6 but it can help Newcastle win quick play-the-balls and generate some ruck speed for Ponga to capitalise on in the following play. He’s also a prolific offloader – Barnett ranked 26th in the competition for offloads this season and it’s an element that can improve the Knights’ forward pack if used effectively.

I’m not as big on Barnett in 2022 as I was to begin this season (and I certainly won’t be crowbarring him into my Fantasy team like I did this season either) but he’s still a player with upside for me and one I’ll still be claiming if he hits the ground running. 

2 – Connor Watson

The Knights have let a good one go in Connor Watson. 

As I scrolled back through my Newcastle notes from this year, Watson’s was a name that kept popping up. He was involved in just about every second positive moment I stamped from the Knights’ 2021 campaign and his offensive involvements in particular will be missed moving forward. In a season where the Knights really struggled for points (448 points scored – 3rd least in total) Watson was often the man relied upon to create something in attack. 

A lot of this was a result of Newcastle’s ever-changing halves pairing. Between Mitchell Pearce, Kurt Mann, Phoenix Crossland, Blake Green, Jake Clifford and Watson the Knights trialled eight or more (I lost count after eight) combinations in the halves this season while star fullback Kalyn Ponga only managed 15 games. It made for a team that didn’t know how to consistently get the best out of their best players, and in the disorganization, Watson often thrived.

He’s difficult to plan for when playing as a five-eighth because he is just that – difficult to plan for. His combination of footwork, speed and vision makes him a nightmare for tired middle defenders and his willingness to bounce around until a hole presents itself can be as effective as it is unconventional.

Actions like this felt very familiar by the season’s end. 

These jinking, cross-field runs compressed defensive lines all season and created spaces on the edges if Newcastle were good enough to get the ball there. In this instance they were. Crossland does his job to link Watson with his teammates out wide and Brodie Jones dives over virtually untouched. It’s not the kind of repeatable action we usually look for here at RLW but it’s the kind of unstructured, opportunistic action that dominated the game in 2021 and Watson did it as well as anyone. 

Newcastle don’t have a player on the books who can replicate these kinds of involvements in 2022. Mitch Barnett looms as the most likely replacement while Brodie Jones is another option, but in either case the Knights are going to have a very different #13 next season. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but considering how influential Watson was this year it’s an area that certainly needs addressing over the summer. 

1 – Jayden Brailey

Another guy Jase and I were keen on to start the season, Jayden Brailey can certainly hold his head high after a compelling 2021 campaign. We forgot quickly that Brailey was in his first year back from an ACL injury when he hit the ground running as the club’s captain and a key cog in their attacking shapes. 

Brailey linking with his middle forwards in attack is something that needs to feature more heavily in the Knights’ 2022 season. He is a crafty dummy-half and can manipulate markers and A-defenders effectively to create half-gaps around the ruck like he did against the Sea Eagles in Round 10:

A strong carry from David Klemmer in the lead up here earned Newcastle a quick play-the-ball right on Manly’s line – an indicator for Brailey and his forwards to go to work. A shimmy to the right moves big Taniela Paseka sideways while Martin Taupau is still dragging himself up off the ground from the previous tackle and is no chance of stopping Daniel Saifiti as he burrows low to plant the ball down. 

We saw Brailey take the right option in similar actions throughout the season, and I’m looking for more in 2022. 

This pass screams Cameron Smith and got Newcastle off to a flying start in Round 1 against the Bulldogs. Again it’s Klemmer dragging defenders around the ball in the lead up and with the Saifiti brothers in shape so close to the line it would take a miracle defensive effort to shut this play down. Brailey scoops the ball from dummy-half and holds it up just long enough for the defence to commit on Jacob before throwing a perfect pass to the unmarked Daniel who strides over. 

It surprised me to note that the Knights scored just 19 of their 80 tries (24%) through the middle third of the field this season. With Brailey scheming around the ruck and Newcastle not short of powerful forward runners I thought we’d get more actions like this in 2021, but as the year wore on Brailey’s impact lessened in attack – he had three try assists in his first five games but just one for the rest of the season. 

The physical toll of averaging 47.7 tackles per game (competition high) with a 96.4% tackle efficiency and the mental toll of being club captain for the first time understandably took effect on Brailey, but I’m backing him in next year. Players rarely hit full fitness in their first year back from an ACL injury and Brailey will have learnt plenty of lessons from his 2021 campaign. He’s their guy moving forward and can play a larger role again in 2022.

~ Oscar

Summer Notepad

The NRL Notepad is a feature that has run all season. With the 2021 campaign wrapped up, we’re starting to think about what we’d like to see between now and March next year.

Bailey Hodgson

A lot of the discussion around Ponga moving into the halves comes down to Bailey Hodgson. A relative unknown and only 19-years-old, he’s a factor to this equation going largely unnoticed. He’s the intended replacement for Ponga at fullback, but Newcastle’s enquiries into Luke Brooks and Corey Norman to replace Pearce suggest the club doesn’t think Hodgson is quite ready.