It isn’t the NRL Grand Final most expected a month ago, but the Panthers and Rabbitohs are primed to produce a thriller to finish the season.
2021 NRL Grand Final Preview:
- 2021 Head-to-Head Recap
- Deciding Factors
- Panthers – Setting up early to win it late
- Rabbitohs – Winning the little contests
- NRL Notepad
- Benji Marshall and the Bunnies bench
- James Fisher-Harris
- Oscar’s Left-field Thought
- Tips
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2021 Head-to-Head Recap
Dubbed the Dicking in Dubbo, we don’t really need to cover the Penrith Panthers 56-12 win over the South Sydney Rabbitohs back in Round 12. The Panthers were at the peak of their powers at the time and haven’t looked quite that good since. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs haven’t looked anywhere near as bad since the Dubbo incident.
Souths inched closer in Round 23 to go down 25-12. Although, the scoreboard flatters the Panthers a little bit. The Rabbitohs flew out to an early lead before running out of steam in the second half.
Week 1 of the NRL Finals gives us a better indication of how the Grand Final might play out.
The Rabbitohs beat the Panthers at their own game to win 16-10 and earn the all-important week off. Patient, physical, calculated; Wayne Bennett inspired South Sydney’s best performance of the season when they needed it most.
Strong through the middle, the Bunnies won the yardage battle by over 100 metres – something few have done against Penrith this season.
In defence, they scrambled and pressured Nathan Cleary and company for the full 80 minutes. That saw Souths fight their way into the arm-wrestle early and find themselves level at 10-10 at the break.
Circled as a possible target for the Panthers attack, Blake Taaffe stood tall. If anything, the Panthers tried too hard to expose his inexperience. He had the answers for Cleary’s kicking game and popped up as required in attack.
Now playing with a lead, the Rabbitohs pressured the Panthers playmakers and scrambled in defence whenever the ball went wide. Souths hadn’t been known for their ability in defence. Until now…
Regardless of the result, the 2021 NRL Grand Final profiles as a similar game to Week 1. The two sides will adopt a similar approach and look to win the middle to start. From there, they can patiently pick holes and wear down the opposition until the points come.
We’ve seen it all between these two teams so far this year. There’s a good chance the fourth and final instalment of Panthers v Rabbitohs for 2021 is the best of the lot.
Grand Final Deciding Factors
Panthers – Setting up early to win it late
The Penrith Panthers have played a patient brand of football all year. They breezed through the regular season by breaking down the bad teams and beat enough of the good ones to finish 2nd on the NRL ladder.
Their patient approach didn’t work against the South Sydney Rabbitohs in Week 1. Met with an elite attacking side and an equally good defence on the day, Penrith didn’t have a Plan B. Still, they went back to what worked to beat the Parramatta Eels in Week 2 before producing an incredible win over the Melbourne Storm in the Preliminary Final.
We talked about the Panthers needing to fire a few trick shots at the Storm if they were to crack them when previewing the match. It only took three minutes before Nathan Cleary produced one of those trick shots inspired by a similar effort from James Tedesco way back in Round 6.
Now that is patience. Cleary and the Panthers held that shot in their back pocket until they needed it most. It allowed them to play with a lead, and their style of play is most effective against a team chasing points.
They should take a similar approach this week against a Rabbitohs outfit that can score points in a hurry and give themselves a huge advantage by scoring one or two tries early. While the Panthers have impressed over the last fortnight, they’ve struggled for points overall.
Cooper Cronk talked about it on the Matty Johns Podcast earlier in the week: “Set the game up early to win it late.”
The longer the game is a grind and the more it comes down to one or two plays late in the match, the better chance Penrith have of victory. They can’t allow themselves to get into a position where they are chasing points. We’ve seen the Rabbitohs defend too well in recent weeks for the Panthers to confidently score 16, 18, 20+ points.
The first 20 minutes are crucial and it comes down to Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary.
Yeo was excellent in the Preliminary Final and his ball playing and activity around the ball all the way up the field is crucial to Penrith’s yardage game and patient approach. He’s a very smart footballer and has all of the skills to dominate in a #13 jersey. They were on full display early into the match last week.
Like Cleary, Yeo passes players onto the ball in yardage. He tips the ball a little bit wider and moves the defence from side to side. It won’t be a surprise to see him play some of the big bodies around him onto Damien Cook on Sunday as they look to fatigue the Rabbitohs hooker early. When Yeo isn’t moving the ball to the likes of James Fisher-Harris, he is taking the line on himself, often with Fisher-Harris in support. Here he brings the four-in defender into the tackle with Fisher-Harris hanging off his shoulder. That would often bring a smaller hooker over to the short side for Fisher-Harris to target, but in this case, it is Brandon Smith, who while small, plays above his size.
Nonetheless, Fisher-Harris bounces out of the contact and releases an offload. The shape itself is something Jahrome Hughes will have noticed as he kept tight to his inside defender throughout.
Yeo released a pass the next time the Panthers were working out of their own end. A little more central this time around, Yeo again takes Fisher-Harris to the defensive line and when Hughes turns in ever so slightly, releases a pass out to Jarome Luai who finds Liam Martin flying onto the ball. Hughes misfires on his tackle as he scrambles across the field and the Panthers earn a penalty.
Having fired the short ball and plugged the middle throughout the opening exchanges, the Panthers went wide off the tap. The Storm middle is fixed on Tevita Pangai Jr so Luai finds Cleary wider. There they are again: Yeo and Fisher-Harris.
Fisher-Harris takes the pass behind Yeo’s decoy this time and puts Kurt Capewell through a hole for the Panthers to fly up the field.
So much of the focus is going to be on Cleary early into the game on Sunday. The Rabbitohs will be out to rattle him with Cameron Murray, in particular, sure to apply more inside pressure than normal while his energy levels allow it. Like Tom Trbojevic at the Sea Eagles, Cleary will be the focus of the defence and that is where Yeo can really have an impact as a game-manager and ballplayer throughout the first 20 minutes.
It’s finishing sets that Cleary will be key to start this one.
He has the best kicking game in the NRL and it can put the Panthers on the front foot to start. While the two teams match up relatively well across the field, there will be few arguments around who has the better back-three. Especially in yardage.
Cleary can maximise that advantage even further by finding the ground with his long kicking game and forcing Jaxson Paulo, Blake Taaffe and Alex Johnston to turn on the kick return. Pin the Rabbitohs in their own end and push their newly adopted patient approach. In good ball, no player has forced more dropouts this season than Cleary. A repeat set and six extra tackles in the 17th minute could well be what opens up an opportunity to score in the 77th minute.
While Souths were successful in grinding down Penrith in Week 1, it’s not something they’ve been known for this season. They weren’t particularly clean with the ball to start against Manly in the Preliminary Final. Although, they only needed 10-15 minutes to find their feet and never looked like losing beyond the 30th minute.
Penrith doesn’t need to score early like they did last week. If they’re winning the contact in yardage and forcing the Rabbitohs to work hard in both attack and defence, that match-winning play will come later.
“Set it up early to finish late.”
~ Jason
Rabbitohs – Winning the little contests
For the Rabbitohs on Sunday it’s all about winning the little contests.
It’s where Penrith won it against Melbourne last week. Cleaning up loose ball, kick-chase and pressure, finding the corners – these ‘one-percenters’ are areas of the game that the Storm have dominated for the past decade or more, yet last weekend it was the Panthers who won these mini-contests across the 80 minutes.
The kicking game is one of these little contests.
We know all about Reynolds’ injured groin and we can expect Walker to do most of the kicking to begin the match. Walker was solid without being spectacular in this role last week, but he needs to be taking every metre he can against a Penrith back three that ranks first in the competition for kick return metres in 2021. Reynolds consistently lands his place kicks 5-10 metres deeper than what Walker produced last week and his exit kicks are far more effective, still. If Penrith are allowed to start their sets in areas like this, the Rabbitohs will pay for it.
With Walker kicking to begin the game, it is so important that Souths’ fourth tackle options are well constructed and executed. Alex Johnston playing the ball five metres in from touch here puts Walker in a terrible position on fifth tackle, and as a result the kick is a poor one. If Reynolds isn’t kicking on the last then look for him to set things up on the previous play and get Walker into good positions to kick from.
The kick-chase is another of those little contests.
Souths consistently dominated in this facet against Manly last week, thanks largely to the work of Campbell Graham at right centre. Reynolds also found a way to involve himself here with Walker on kicking duty, and the pair dominated Manly’s back three in a number of aggressive kick-chase efforts.
Walker gets a good kick away on the last but it turns into a great one when Reynolds and Graham drive Tom Trbojevic back and trap Manly inside their 10m. Reynolds makes strong contact and gets underneath the ball while Graham comes over the top and pushes Trbojevic backwards. Manly are forced to start their set on the back foot with Souths’ defensive line set and their yardage is limited as a result.
Winning these little contests allowed South Sydney to build pressure with their defence and win field position in attack. It saw Souths play the high-percentage options rather than any expansive, attacking brand of footy we have come to associate them with this season. If they can do the same to Penrith’s back three on Sunday it will put added pressure on the Panthers’ forwards to win the yardage battle through the middle – somewhere I think Souths might have an edge heading into this one.
Winning the ruck is the third little contest for me on Sunday.
Making strong first contact in defence, dominating the tackle, finding your front with the ball – it’s where Souths beat Penrith in week one of the finals and they will need to do the same again on Sunday. Both starting packs are fairly evenly matched but it’s on the bench where South Sydney have an advantage, on paper at least.
Souths’ bench forwards have averaged a combined 364.2 running metres in their last three games from the pine compared to Penrith’s 202.6 metres. The Rabbitohs lose none of their punch when Tom Burgess, Jai Arrow and Jacob Host enter the contest and it’s seen them dominate the ruck in their last two finals games.
Burgess in particular has been immense, averaging 180 metres from the bench in his last three games. Burgess is only being asked to make 16.6 tackles in these stints – well down on his 23.8 season average – which allows him to concentrate solely on eating up the metres. He is reasonably mobile for a big unit and despite his size Burgess has a quick play-the-ball that is often the trigger for Cook to run.
Benji Marshall tips Burgess at the much smaller Lachlan Croker in the defensive line here, allowing Burgess to win the tackle and find his front quickly. Before Josh Schuster or Croker get set at marker, Burgess plays the ball and Cook takes off. He takes 15 easy metres before throwing a bludger at the line, but there was an opportunity there and Souths hit it again in the very next set.
It starts with Marshall tipping to Burgess again.
It’s not the most dominant carry from Burgess here, but at 196cm and 120kg he demands plenty of attention from the defence and as he stands in the tackle Manly compress around the ruck. Both Jake Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans hover around waiting for an offload and although they retreat when Burgess goes to ground, the defence remains tight around the ball until the tacklers peel off the ruck. Despite getting put on his back, Burgess manages to play the ball before Olakau’atu or Aloiai get set in the line and Manly have no time to adjust out wide as a result.
The wide angle shows it best.
Dylan Walker is tight at A defender under the posts waiting for his teammates to peel off the tackle which allows Reynolds to beat him on the outside before he even takes possession. Manly’s edge defence compresses to contain Reynolds and a few clean passes is all Graham needs to score out wide.
Winning the little contests like Burgess did in the previous tackle here doesn’t always translate immediately into points. It’s more often a slow burn that is measured in a few kick return metres or split-seconds in the play-the-ball, and Souths need to win most of them if they’re to win the whole thing on Sunday night. Their defence in the last two games (bar the final 10 minutes against Manly when the game was already won) has been as good as whatever Penrith have delivered in this finals series, but their attack has arguably been better. If they can continue winning the little contests throughout the 80 minutes, Souths will be every chance when the siren blows.
~ Oscar
NRL Notepad
Rabbitohs
This feels like a game where Benji Marshall might do something special. It is more likely to be a moment than a lengthy period at his age, but I’m excited to see him on the field in what might be the last game of his NRL career.
I really like the look of the Rabbitohs bench and what they’re going to be able to do either side of halftime. Anticipating an arm-wrestle early as both teams wait for the other to make a mistake, Thomas Burgess, Jai Arrow and Marshall can be the trio to capitalise. The two teams match up well to start, but Thomas and Arrow can put the Bunnies on the front foot for Marshall to work his magic against a tired defence either side of halftime.
He’s not going to complete the dangerous carries Cameron Murray does in good ball, but he will pop up wider and make the right pass if he’s provided with enough space.
Marshall isn’t the player he once was. Coming off the bench as an impact player with the ball is the perfect role for him right now. His success is determined by how the forward pack performs across the first 30-35 minutes, but I won’t be surprised to see some Marshall magic on the right edge in this one.
Panthers
James Fisher-Harris averaged 173 running metres per game before leaving the NRL bubble after Round 19. Active around the ball as a support player while also administering brutal shots in defence, he dominated on both sides of the ball, with or without it. Payne Haas is the only prop you could say performed better than Fisher-Harris to start the season, and even then, there was a very compelling argument for the big Kiwi.
Since returning in Round 24, Fisher-Harris has managed just 87 running metres per game…
The quality of opposition has a lot to do with it. He’s running at finals-quality middle defences and not having as much success in picking the little man out in the line and trampling him. His overall involvement is down. He averaged 20 touches of the ball up to Round 19 but only 13 touches per game since.
Whether it’s by design or something isn’t quite right with the 25-year-old, I’ll be following him closely in this one.
The two teams matchup relatively even in the middle to start this match in his current form, but if Fisher-Harris can return to the sort of play that saw him talked about as one of the best props in the NRL, he can lay the platform for a Penrith victory across the opening 30 minutes.
~ Jason
Heads In! – Oscar’s left-field thought
It’s definitely the South Sydney romantic in me, but I think there is the makings of a highlight moment for rookie Blake Taafe on Sunday.
For Souths to remain premiership challengers without Latrell Mitchell they needed a ballplaying fullback. So much of their attacking systems rely on smooth shifts of the ball across-field to create overlaps on the edges, and the variety with which they present these shapes meant that Taafe needed to be able to fill different positions in the backline and throw different passes from those positions.
He’s had four try assists in his last three games at fullback, showcasing all the vision and ballplaying skills of the man he has been tasked with replacing.
Instead of taking possession out the back of shape and deciding on the pass for Johnston’s first try above, in this below action Taafe sweeps around late to create the overlap for his winger. There is no pass selection required here – just some lovely soft hands to tap the ball on and beat the jamming defender like we’ve seen Mitchell do all year.
Taafe doesn’t need to be spectacular for South Sydney to win on Sunday. Murray, Cook, Walker and Reynolds will be the leading playmakers but while they command attention from the defence Taafe will have his opportunities to strike. He just needs to know when and how to take them.
Taafe’s looked half-likely with this right foot step a few times down that edge already. If Penrith’s defence slides too quickly to the wing or is too slow from the inside, this is one action that could catch them slipping.
Taafe isn’t going to demand as much attention from the defence as a Reynolds or Walker and he’s certainly quick enough to dart into half gaps when they appear. Most of his involvements in Souths’ attacking shapes so far have been as a ballplayer but I’m backing Taafe to take on the line himself a few times on Sunday.
~ Oscar
Tips
How lucky am I to have officially launched RLW with Jase in the same year that South Sydney make a run for the premiership. I’ve done my best to keep the bias out of my work this year (seriously, I tried) but the privilege of reading and writing about my team this week is not lost on me, and I can’t really tip anything else here. Souths defence has been on par with Penrith this finals series and their attack has been better. They’ve got highly experienced players in key positions and they come into this a lot fresher than Penrith do. I’m putting my money where my mouth is and backing Blake Taafe anytime in what would be a fairytale finish.
Blake Taafe anytime tryscorer + South Sydney Rabbitohs win @ $7 (same game multi) ~ OP
I’ve changed my mind every day this week. I liked the Rabbitohs straight after the Panthers won on Saturday. By Monday I liked the idea of how Penrith’s experience in the 2020 NRL Grand Final might help them in 2021. Some key stats directed me back towards Souths, but Nathan Cleary being Nathan Cleary pushed me to Penrith by Thursday. By Friday – when this is published – I’m leaning ever so slightly towards Souths. I like their pack to compete, their defence has improved and Wayne Bennett is a master when it comes to inspiring big performances on the biggest stage.
Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $3.50 ~JO
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