With the Rugby League World Cup only days away, Jason has cracked open another notepad and recorded a few things he’s keeping an eye on throughout the tournament.
More rugby league. How good?!?
Having taken a few days away from footy which involved a pig trying to get into my van and a bull knocking on the door in the middle of the night, I’m back on the tools and starting to fiz up for the Rugby League World Cup.
It looks as though it might be the best one ever. We’re going to see a few blowouts early, which those footy fans will revel in… However, there is plenty to look forward to until the much-anticipated semi-finals kick off in about a month.
So, while casting my eyes over the teams, draw and a few notes, I’ve rambled on about a couple of things I’m keeping an eye on throughout the Rugby League World Cup.
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Kiwis Kicking
The 24-man New Zealand squad has attempted a total of 40 shots at goal.
Jordan Rapana, the only player in the squad that has kicked at NRL level recently, is a below-average kicker per Stats Insider’s True Kicker Ratings.
He has only attempted 24 shots at goal since 2020, so the sample size is small. While the sample size makes it difficult to read too much into the numbers, that sample size is small for a reason. Perhaps he’s better than the -6.2 True Kicker Scores suggests. I think we can say he isn’t particularly good, though.
Michael Maguire will have a few options up his sleeve. Dylan Brown will be kicking a few at training, I’m sure. Joseph Manu is good at everything else so why can’t he take a few shots at goal?
Kicks at goal won’t be a significant factor in the pool stages. If anything, it will give the potential kickers plenty of in-game practice should the Kiwis run up a few points. Still, it’s an area of concern when you consider how close games are likely to be towards the end of the tournament.
Kangaroos #7
There has been some speculation around who Mal Meninga will go with at halfback in the big games.
It seems more like a discussion to keep the articles and talking points ticking over because it’s all fairly obvious to me: Nathan Cleary will be the starting halfback in the big games.
He’s the best #7 in the game and in superb form.
Meninga mentioned Daly Cherry-Evans as the “incumbent” when naming the Kangaroos side which some people took as ‘Cherry-Evans is the #7.’ Watching the press conference back, it’s clear that he said it to strike up some competition for the jersey. Look, Meninga is a ‘pick and stick’ sort of guy. All Queenslanders are after seeing what sticking with some of the best players in the history of the game does for a side. However, he’s not going to pick somebody because they’re the incumbent from a side that hasn’t played since 2019; a side featuring Nick Cotric, Paul Vaughan, Boyd Cordner and other players not close to making this one in 2022.
The centre spot
Latrell Mitchell will fill one of the spots in the centres for the Kangaroos, but who fills the other?
Val Holmes has been named for the opener against Fiji but I’m looking out for Campbell Graham’s name on future team sheets. He deserves his spot in the squad and I won’t be surprised to see him starting some of the big games with Holmes pushed out to the wing.
Graham is an excellent defensive centre – the best in the NRL, for me. He’s not going to produce the flashy plays that feature on highlight reels, but he wouldn’t need to in this stacked Aussie squad. Instead, he puts his hand up in yardage (he averaged 142 metres per game in 2022), takes the tough carries to start a set (14 runs per game), and works well with those around him in defence to close down opposition shifts. His contact in a tackle is particularly underrated.
The Kangaroos have so many options across all positions. Their depth is why they deserve to be favourites. It also gives us something to muse on throughout the tournament as we look to determine Australia’s first-choice 17.
Kai Pearce-Paul
Kai Pearce-Paul is considered to be the next big thing to come out of England.
Sneaking into the 24-man England squad, Newcastle Knights fans, in particular, will want to keep an eye on the 21-year-old. There have been a handful of reports ‘confirming’ his move to the NRL for 2024 and Gus Gould has backed up those rumours. Still, there has been no formal announcement from the Knights.
Nonetheless, the offloading machine is going to be a focus throughout the Rugby League World Cup. Listed at 197cm and 107 kg, he’s a big unit capable of playing in the centres or second row. I can sense your eyes about to roll as I say this, but you can’t help but see it: There’s a bit of the Sonny-Bill Williams about him.
The way he’s able to stand in the tackle with his arms free before flicking out an offload.
Holding the ball out in front and applying the little shimmy off his left foot ahead of a left-hand fend is particularly Williams-like.
He’s going to be hyped up to no end. Rumours around a move to the NRL will only fuel the fire further. I’m looking forward to seeing him play on the world stage, though. We will get a much better idea of where he is at in his development while going up against some of the best players in the game.
Forward dominance & organisation
This might be the best Kiwis team I have ever seen.
It’s certainly the best Kiwis forward pack I have ever seen.
Is it the best in the world? The Rugby League World Cup will tell us.
With Jesse Bromwich, James Fisher-Harris and Joseph Tapine all to start, the Kiwis will have the likes of Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Moses Leota to come off the bench. Add the firepower and yardage of Isaiah Papali’i on the edge and this squad should finish the tournament as the best yardage team at the very least.
Any good half will thrive behind a dominant pack, but Jahrome Hughes and Dylan Brown rely on and thrive behind it most. They’re halves that are always looking to take a step forward as soon as they receive the ball. Their intent is to get downhill at a retreating defensive line, engage defenders and produce opportunities for those on the outside. Unlike Nathan Cleary who will try to orchestrate a full set, the Kiwis halves do their best work when reacting to what is directly in front of them.
The Kiwis won’t face too many problems throughout the group stages. While Jamaica, Lebanon and Ireland might be able to hang with them for periods, the Kiwis will come out on top, in the end, to allow Brown and Hughes to work their magic. It’s later in the tournament when things don’t come so easily in the middle when the lack of a traditional half, an organiser, might become noticeable.
Tonga’s halves
It’s often in the key playmaking positions that Mate Ma’a Tonga struggle. They have an outrageous forward pack and plenty of talent out wide, but it’s the links between the pack and backs that lets them down.
Tui Lolohea, Talatau Amone and Isaiya Katoa are on a path to changing all of that, though.
I expect Lolohea’s experience to be enough to have him start in the big games, but how Amone and Katoa link up when given the chance will be crucial to Tonga’s long-term development. Amone played out a very good NRL season and is tracking along nicely. Katoa is heading to the Dolphins with huge expectations and has lived up to them in junior grades so far.
He’s young but what impresses me most about Katoa already is his ability to read the defence and his willingness to dig into the line.
The Rugby League World Cup is always a good time to scout unheralded or relatively unknown players. Katoa is at the top of my list.
Joseph Sua’ali’i at the back
The idea that the Roosters would move James Tedesco on to make way for Joseph Sua’ali’i at fullback is silly.
The idea that Sua’ali’i decided to play for Toa Samoa simply to put himself in the shop window as a fullback is disrespectful and not worth any more of a response.
Still, it’s likely that Sua’a’li’i ends up playing fullback in the NRL at some stage and this is the first real look we get of him as a consistent fullback.
Thrown into the position when James Tedesco left Week 1 of the finals early, Sua’ali’i struggled at times. Like any young fullback, I have concerns about his ability to position himself and organise others in defence. The Rabbitohs caught him out for Jai Arrow to score all too easily:
He’s ultimately going to be judged on what he does with the ball, though.
I’d like to see Samoa use Sua’ali’i around half way. Early ball with room to move can put him against single and sliding defenders. His leg drive is incredible. At the very least, he will get the team up the field and into good field position if he sees enough ball out wide.
There will be teething issues. Whether he plays good or bad, it’s more than likely his performances will be overstated either way. I’ll be watching him with the future in mind.
French Revival
The hype surrounding the Pacific nations has provided the international game with a much-needed boost. If we’re to get anywhere with international rugby league, we’re going to look back at Mate Ma’a Tonga and Jason Taumalolo as the catalysts.
We now need something similar to occur in the northern hemisphere.
A good showing from France in this Rugby League World Cup can provide the international game with another jolt. Most people know that France was once a relevant rugby league nation and a genuine force throughout the 1950s and 60s. It’s been a long time since they’ve managed to beat one of England, New Zealand or Australia, though.
Trent Robinson is now a director which adds some world-class quality to their staff. Toulouse Olympique XIII and Catalans Dragons both featured in the Super League this year. Unlike other nations, France will have some cohesion within the squad with 20 players coming from the two Super League clubs.
France head coach Laurent Frayssinous is confident his team will surprise a few people:
“Even if we miss the experience from Theo Fages, Julian Bousquet and Romain Navarrete, I think this squad is the best for years, maybe even the best French team we’ve ever had. They’re all full-time and play against the best in Super League for the last few years. It’s great to coach these great players. All together, we want to win and improve.”
France is in a tough group with Greece, Samoa and England. While they should beat Greece comfortably, I’d love to see them hang with England and Samoa if not cause a massive upset. Catalans’ Arthur Mourgue is one to keep an eye on.
Cheika’s credentials
I’ve spent the winter highlighting all of the former league players that have influenced All Blacks losses to my union mates. Now it’s time for one to come back the other way with Michael Cheika coaching the Lebanon side.
He is also the current coach of the Argentina union team. As a casual union observer, there is little doubt that coaches are picking things up from league and applying them to union so I’m interested to see if he brings anything over from union to league. Cheika will no doubt lean heavily on Mitchell Moses and Adam Doueihi, but unlike the Kangaroos and Kiwis that are stacked with the sort of talent that could coach themselves, this Lebanon squad will need significant guidance from the man in charge.
I’ll be on the lookout for anything union-inspired.
Concussion Concerns
Those up north won’t be surprised but NRL fans will raise an eyebrow at the fact any concussed player will be stood down for up to 11 days. There will be a few exceptions:
“This will be granted only if the medical team caring for the patient believes they have made a complete recovery and certain criteria are met.”
The criteria are fairly strict and don’t leave a lot of wiggle room. Therefore, we can expect to see a few players miss games they’d have otherwise played in the NRL.
It’s going to test the depth of some teams. The Kangaroos are best-prepared to deal with injuries and concussions which pushes them further into Rugby League World Cup favouritism. Perhaps some of the bigger nations will rest more of their star players than first thought?
Hopefully, we’re not looking at too many first-choice players sitting on the sideline in the finals.
Getting behind Greece
Greece has taken an incredible road to this Rugby League World Cup.
Five-figure monetary fines, decade-long bans from the sport, expulsion. It’s an impressive yet frustrating story and here Keith Whitelock starts to sum up Greece’s Road To The Rugby League World Cup.
It was only in August this year, with the help of the Australian and UK Ambassadors to Greece, that the Greek Government recognised rugby league as a sport allowing a federation to be formed.
“After a ten year fight for recognition as a distinct and separate sport, the Greek Ministry of Culture and Sports and their General Secretariat of Sports has formally announced that rugby league has the right to be played in the country.” – Ban on rugby league in Greece lifted ahead of World Cup
They’re $13 outsiders against France in their opening match. Greece is unlikely to leave the world cup with a win. However, it’s not about wins for Greece. Just getting there is their biggest victory to date.
Growing the international game
Kobe Bryant talked of a “beauty” in watching his Team USA flop in the 2004 Olympic games which saw Argentina win gold. He talked about the growth of the sport and that year acting as a catalyst for the NBA’s – and basketball in general – global dominance.
While I don’t think we’re about to see any of the lowly teams win the Rugby League World Cup, the 2021/22 edition could feature some of that beauty.
The likes of Greece, Jamaica, Italy and Wales don’t need to beat any of the top teams to produce a Cinderella moment. Picking up wins over each other will be their goal. Heck, if Jamaica can hang with the Kiwis for 30-40 minutes we can circle that as a significant achievement.
It’s not about the results for these nations. It’s about getting the game in front of new eyeballs throughout this Rugby League World Cup and building into the next. Sports fans will watch anything if their country is involved. Generate some buzz back home, introduce people to the game, give them something to cheer about and watch them come back for more.
Rugby League is always looking for a quick fix and the next gimmick. Sometimes, we just need to let the game sell itself and the international game is the way to do it.
We’ve got 16 teams running out for this Rugby League World Cup. As Gavin Willacy says for The Guardian:
“The comfortingly familiar 16-team format is vastly more satisfying than the deeply flawed 10- and 14-team formats of the last three World Cups, but the downside is that most groups are hugely predictable.”
Some of these matches won’t be particularly entertaining. There won’t be many Aussies setting an alarm for 5 am to watch the Kangaroos towel up Fiji, Scotland and Italy. Nonetheless, those of us in the bigger rugby league nations can still play our part by sharing videos, articles and anything else that will attract somebody to the game. We know the pointy end of this tournament is going to be rugby league at its very best and that’s where the game can really get a grip on new fans.
It looked as though international rugby league would take significant steps forward in 2017. Covid played a part but poor governance put a handbrake on that growth long before the global pandemic stopped things entirely. Perhaps it’s foolish of me considering how often rugby league not only fails to learn from its mistakes but also gives up on something new if it doesn’t take off from day one, but I remain hopeful of spending my December thinking of ways to capitalise on an incredible Rugby League World Cup in 2023 and beyond.