NRL Repeat Set: How the Eels piled up points, some stats & Albert Hopoate

Recap the latest round of the 2023 NRL season with the Repeat Set as we break down some of the best plays from the weekend.

– How the Eels pulled the Dolphins defence to pieces
– Some stats
– Debut ~~Double~~ Try
– “How did the Knights lose?”
– Albert Hopate Appreciation Post

How the Eels pulled the Dolphins defence to pieces

It wasn’t the case here at RLW, but the red pen threatened the Parramatta Eels’ finals chances like an afternoon storm at The SCG after a slow start to the 2023 NRL season.

Now on a five-game winning streak heading into their Round 18 bye, the Eels are inside the Top 8 with the second-best points differential in the competition.

Parramatta defended relatively well despite not picking up W’s early in the season conceding only 22.6 points per game across the opening five rounds. Throughout their five-game winning streak, Brad Arthur’s side has allowed only 13.6 points per game – a number that would rank 2nd in the NRL for the full season. Their defence has caught up to what has always been a strong attack; one scoring an NRL-high 27.5 points per game through 17 rounds.

Parramatta had their way with the Dolphins in Round 17. I’d highlighted a few issues in the Dolphins defence before the game and assumed an improvement. That improvement never came…

So, instead of rehashing why the Dolphins defence is performing so poorly, I’m looking at what the Eels did to exploit it for 42 points in the first half.

Isolating Nikorima

The Eels have thrown more offloads than any other team in the competition. They thrive on the second phase and look to run downhill at a fractured defensive line, exploiting short sides in particular. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not playing to points on the field and picking targets in the defensive line.

They scored back-to-back tries by isolating small defenders and breaking through the line early into the match.

You can see Mitchell Moses start on the right side of the play-the-ball, hovering around the back of the ruck spying the short side. He’s always keen to fly down a short side against a retreating defence whenever a cue is presented. However, the Dolphins defence is numbered up forcing Moses to flip to the open side.

It’s only a subtle movement, but by moving across the field, Moses takes the ball in front of Herman Ese’ese at B defender. His quick shovel pass can now put J’maine Hopgood onto Felise Kaufusi four-in who provides Andrew Davey with a free passage at Kodi Nikorima’s inside shoulder.

They’ve picked a defender out in the line and played straight at him for points.

Hopgood holds it this time

Five minutes later and the Eels go back to a similar play. The play-the-ball is along the same line as the previous try, just further up the field this time.

Again Moses starts on the right side and flips late to the left edge. The two Dolphins defenders peeling out of the tackle are slow to fill up on the openside which helps, but it’s the long pass to put Moses outside the B defender that isolates Hopgood onto the smaller Isaiya Katoa.

Kaufusi has that same Davey lead line on his outside, five Eels players in front of him, and a makeshift middle inside him. He’s in an impossible situation and can’t react quickly enough to save Katoa from being beaten with relative ease.

It’s a fine example of playing through a set with a plan and using the same plan to score in a variety of ways.

Rolling out of yardage x2

Will Penisini scored another through an individual moment of brilliance, but it’s the try from the kick off set that followed, and the kick off set that followed that one that are most impressive.

The first starts with Reagan Campbell-Gillard carrying the ball forward down the left edge from the kickoff before Davey does the same down the same side.

Parramatta looks to shift the ball on the 3rd tackle but the jamming defence does well to close it down. On the following play, Ryan Matterson carts the ball up to the middle of the field and it’s here where you can see the plan in action.

From the middle, the Eels have stacked the left edge with seven players leaving just four on the right side. The Dolphins respond by plugging only four players into a long left edge and play right into Parramatta’s hands.

Sean O’Sullivan is the target as soon as Moses takes possession. He skips across the A defender, engages O’Sullivan at B and plays Bryce Cartwright into a desperate legs tackle which allows the Eels backrower to offload his centre into space before Clint Gutherson dots down under the posts.

Rinse and repeat on the very next set.

Campbell-Gillard into Davey and Matterson to the middle.

Hopgood is at first receiver this time but his target remains the same. Moses is out the back to throw some doubt into O’Sullivan at B. Getting deep into the line, Hopgood is able to play Cartwright into a legs tackle, leaving his arms free to offload to Moses who sends Penisini over for his second.

If you go back to the Matterson play-the-ball, Gutherson knows what’s coming. He’s adding a number to the left edge, but he has his head down to push up in support through the middle as soon as Brendan Hands bends down to send the ball to the right edge. It’s all to plan.

They’ve drawn it up and executed the yardage sequence to perfection.

Twice.

What does it tell us about Parramatta’s NRL Finals chances?

We often see teams go on a promising run of form and pile up points before falling back to the pack.

While points per game can give us an indication of a good attack, it’s whether or not those points come through repeatable actions that separate the good teams from the bad.

The Eels are a good team, and as their draw has levelled out, they’ve picked up wins as expected. Per Stats Insiders Schedule Difficulty model, Parramatta has the second-hardest remaining schedule in the NRL. Coming into it in good form and with players to return from injury, expect them to perform a lot better to finish the season than they did to start it and to feature in September footy again this year.

Some stats

Just quietly, the Parramatta Eels…

They’re in the top five for both attack and defence and have won five on the bounce. They’re coming.

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks can’t seem to beat any of the top teams in the NRL but they do well to pile up points on the rest of the competition to still be 2nd in attack.

The Penrith Panthers defence is still historically elite to concede only 12.5 points per game, over a try better than the Brisbane Broncos at 2nd. Of concern for the South Sydney Rabbitohs who were 4th defensively only two weeks ago conceding 18.9 points per game, they’ve conceded 26.3 points per game across their last five.

We love to see tries scored and high-scoring shootouts. However, defence wins premierships. The premiership-winning team is typically one that finishes the regular season inside the top three in defence. Unsurprisingly, it’s the Panthers, Broncos and Storm that feature as the major contenders.

ICYMI: Foran & Fifita

By dragging Jensen and Kobe Hetherington into the tackle, Stimson creates a 7/4 split in the defensive line on the following play. Piakura maintains his position at four-man on the short side, leaving seven defenders in the front-line (Reece Walsh is there too but will drop out the back) on the open side.

NRL Debut Double Try

Brayden McGrady should have scored a double but tried to throw an outrageous flick pass with the line in sight.

Still, how good is it to see a player score on debut?

“How did the Knights lose?”

Christian Welch asked the question a lot of people were looking to answer when stepping up to his own post-match press conference on Saturday night.

Looking through the numbers, the Newcastle Knights ended up on the wrong end of a brutal Panthers system.

The Panthers:

Played with 57% possession and spent 33 minutes with the ball to the Knights’ 25 minutes.
Completed at 90%.
Played with 67% territory.
Earned 50 tackles inside the opposition’s 20-metre line to Newcastle’s 4.
Ran for 2,057 meters, 542 more metres than the Knights.
Forced 3 dropouts.
The back five combined for 911 metres.

Once again, the Panthers played to their system. Regardless of who lines up on the day, all 30 players know their role within the system and understand that if everybody completes their role, as minor as it might be, the result will come.

While the NRL ladder is crammed from 1st to 12th, there is a sense of inevitability about Penrith’s run towards a fourth-consecutive Grand Final.

More good NRL & NRLW reads

The demise of Twitter has made stumbling on good NRL content even more difficult so I think it’s important to share it around where possible. Here are a few things – sometimes not specifically rugby league related but lead me to rugby league thoughts – that I’ve read or listened to recently:

Albert Hopate Appreciation Post

I realised on Sunday night that all of the things I liked about Tesi Niu as a winger, Albert Hopoate is displaying the same without the significant defensive issues.

The 22-year-old ran for a career-high 249 metres on 25 carries in Round 17. He played a massive part in the Canberra Raiders winning the yardage and possession battle over the Sydney Roosters.

Hopoate is a big unit at 97kg. He runs hard, straight and pushes well through contact. While still only young, he does a good job of identifying the best path through the defensive line when working out of yardage to find the little man and finish on his front to generate a quick play-the-ball.

His work rate is impressive, too. You’ll often see him travel a long distance from the left wing to take a carry on the right edge early in the set.

He hasn’t always profiled a yardage-dominating winger in the NRL, but with the opportunity in front of him, Hopoate has taken it with both hands. When you consider the players also fighting for a spot in the Raiders first grade side, he is making Ricky Stuart’s decision easy at the moment.