The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 5 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Thursday Night Members Memo
Murray moving the ball
Every year I land on a player that infatuates me for the season. In 2022 it was Teig Wilton. The season before, Cameron Murray.
Murray is one of the best lock forwards in the NRL. His ability to generate a quick play-the-ball through the middle in good ball is second to none. If he’s not the trigger to the shift, he’s the pivot at first receiver.
On paper, Murray is the perfect lock forward in rugby league today and his game has developed with the game in general.
However, it feels like he’s having a bit of a quiet year. His yardage numbers are up from 120 metres per game in 2022 to 132 metres per game in 2023, but the eye test tells me he isn’t pulling off those trigger plays quite so often. His downhill runs onto his front and into a quick ruck don’t seem like such a feature of the South Sydney Rabbitohs’ attack. Instead, he’s slotting in as a distributor.
Already a renowned ball player, Murray has increased his passes per game from 16.9 in 2022 to 19.5 in 2023.
Injuries to the Bunnies pack may be a contributor. Their unfortunate luck of losing a middle forward in the first minute of games will have no doubt changed Murray’s role on the night. All of a sudden he’s tasked with taking more of the tougher carries or distributing the ball throughout the set.
Souths still look their best when Murray is involved through the middle, though.
This is a lethal shape from the left post. Keaon Koloamatangi (he might be my guy in 2023) runs an incredible line. Campbell Graham’s ability to hold up defenders is grossly underrated.
The Bunnies don’t even strip the Sea Eagles for numbers here, but with Murray getting deep into the line with Koloamatangi off his hip, they hold up the defensive line. With Lachlan Illias doing the same out wider, Cody Walker is able to get around the two-in defender to score.
It all started with Murray at pivot in an attacking shape.
We’ve seen it plenty of times over the last couple of years. His combination with Ilias on the right edge is proving to be a regular threat this season, too.
The Rabbitohs attack hasn’t fired yet. They’re averaging only 17 points per game while the right edge has looked the more dominant of the two. This week, though, they have a more complete middle. Two genuine props to start and two more to come off the bench leaving Murray to play out a more typical role.
His passes are up this year, but we might get a better idea of why and whether or not it’s a long-term thing this week. I expect him to throw fewer on Friday night and look more often to crash the ball on 4th tackle in good ball ahead of a long shift to the left.
Still figuring out the Wests Tigers attack
The Wests Tigers offload the ball a lot. Their overall average is starting to drop down, but their 15 offloads per game still lead the NRL. I looked into it a couple of weeks ago, considering what they were trying to do and what it looks like when the offloads come off.
This week, however, I’m counting up the times it doesn’t. While the idea might be to offload the ball and get the defence moving around the field, too often it’s the Tigers that do a lot of the moving.
They’re throwing one, two, three or even four out the back, and against the good defensive teams that get forward after an offload and close down the second phase, the Tigers find themselves getting back behind the ball for the following tackle.
It’s late in the game and they’re chasing a lead so it’s a bit of an extreme example, but the issue is fairly common.
Just look at where the play-the-ball is to start, and where this tackle ends up…
All of the offloads and short passes generate about six metres. Worse is the shape for the next play. When Daine Laurie is eventually caught with the ball, three Tigers players are ahead of him while three more are roughly in line and need to track back to reload.
Throwing an offload is risky and having to get back behind the ball is wasted energy. We see the odd occasion where the Tigers threaten on the second phase. Again, I get the idea. But is it a net negative at the moment? Are those that threaten worth the times Wests lose all momentum in a set and have to start again?
When teams start to lose a set early, it’s very hard to wrestle back whether you’re attacking or defending. Are Wests throwing the offloads to save a set? Are they throwing them with momentum looking to pounce?
They’re a terribly inefficient team when attacking inside the opposition 20 (more on that in the NRL notes below) so I’ll be looking out for a bit more method to the madness in Round 5.
Moses’ Boot
Mitchell Moses kicked for 1,006 metres against the Penrith Panthers in Round 4.
That isn’t a typo.
One-thousand-and-six metres off the boot.
It’s a new career high for the Parramatta Eels halfback and the most he’s kicked since Round 18 in 2020 when he found 892 metres with the boot, also against the Panthers.
He picked out Sunia Turuva whenever he could, forcing the Fijian into 27 carries for 319 running metres (176 kick return metres). I’m guessing the idea is to find Turuva and force the smaller man into tougher carries. Dylan Edwards (30 runs, 313m) and Brian To’o (23 runs, 240m) still generated incredible numbers, but that’s what they do. To’o, in particular, needed to travel a fair distance for his carry which, ideally, is against a set defensive line.
Expect Parramatta to do similar again this week, picking out Jaxson Paulo on the wing. Allow the defence to get up and attack the second and third carry.
Moses’ kicking game played a huge part in Parramatta’s success in Round 4. He doesn’t need to find over 1,000 metres in the air again, but his performance with the boot will be crucial against a rested and ready Sydney Roosters back five.
Katoa’s catching
Eliesa Katoa is becoming the player so many people thought he could be.
He burst onto the NRL scene in 2020 as a 19-year-old that had about 13 games of rugby league experience to his name. His size, speed and motor impressed to start and the potential allowed for a few teething issues throughout a tough season for many reasons.
However, he fell down the pecking order and eventually out of favour at the Warriors before moving to the Melbourne Storm to start 2023.
He’s the classic Craig Bellamy reclamation project and the move is already paying dividends for both parties. Katoa’s numbers have impressed through the first four rounds:
Give him the room to catch the ball and wind up into the defence, and he’s a destructive ball carrier. One Harry Grant is developing a nice partnership with, and one the Storm are looking to use a momentum generator rather than a typical line runner.
One number stands out as one to work on, though.
Errors: 6 in total
They seem to come in contact. Not uncommon for the position, but a little too common for a Storm edge backrower. Katoa’s hands have always been the concern and it’s an area Bellamy is yet to work his magic.
Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Reynolds Returns
This is cool.
Six years since he last played for the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs first grade side, Josh Reynolds makes his return to the club this week.
It looked all over for him at one stage but he came back to the NRL with one goal in mind and he will achieve it off the bench against the North Queensland Cowboys.
Reynolds featured for the Bulldogs NSW Cup side last week and possibly provided us with a little glimpse of what his role will look like on Sunday. He started in the halves, typically lively and threatening in attack. His experience and willingness to get deep into the line is especially evident at Cup level. However, he filled more of a dummy half role in the second half.
The 33-year-old jumped out from behind the ruck, searched across field and put in a perfect grubber for Kitione Kautoga to score.
It wasn’t the only time Reynolds looked dangerous jumping out. He didn’t stand out as a liability defending through the middle either.
Kyle Flanagan and Matt Burton are unlikely to leave the field on Sunday. Reed Mahoney has played the full 80 minutes in all four games to start the NRL season. Where Reynolds pops up remains to be seen, but based on his stint for the Cup side last week, it won’t be a surprise to see him given the ‘chuck him in the middle and see what happens’ treatment at some stage in the second half.
Other Quick NRL Notes
– Do this again, David.
– After hyping Tesi Niu up as a long-term option on the wing for the Dolphins, he will miss the next few weeks with a knee injury. Enter: Jack Bostock. I don’t know a lot about him which always makes these NRL debuts so interesting. No hype or expectation, just a young bloke realising his dream.
– More Dolphins… Isaiya Katoa has been named in the #6 jersey but I expect him to be the organising half alongside Anthony Milford. It’s a big step up for a young fella that has been able to rely on Sean O’Sullivan to organise the troops so far this season.
– The Panthers are a team that looks to build pressure and play patient footy, but their 0.43 points per tackle inside the opposition 20 metre line is low. Second-to-last levels of low. Only the Wests Tigers are worse at 0.39 points per tackle inside the opposition 20.
– In contrast, the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks are at the top of the NRL pile when attacking the opposition line. They average 1.1 points per tackle inside the opposition 20 metre line.
– Oscar is digging into it in more detail, but how good is Lachie Miller? He seems fairly limited as a passer, but like Dylan Edwards at the Panthers, he doesn’t really need one. I’m following him closely in Round 5.