The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles who are looking to take the next step towards premiership glory.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Dylan Walker, Ethan Bullemor
- Sections Wishlist: The Trbojevic Special, and Ben Trbojevic
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: The focus on Trbojevic
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
What a season it was for the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles in 2021. Four consecutive and comprehensive losses to begin the year were long forgotten by Round 25 when Manly found themselves with a double chance in the finals series.
Tom Trbojevic was the flavour of the season and only the best defensive teams found a way to limit his impact on the game – and even then he was still elite. Equally dangerous running one off the ruck as he was out the back of shape, Trbojevic was unstoppable at times and helped bring speedsters Rueben Garrick and Jason Saab into the game. This trio consistently helped the Sea Eagles work up-field in yardage sets and they scored most of Manly’s points down the other end of the field, too.
We also witnessed the emergence of Haumole Olakau’atu and Josh Schuster in a year when Manly’s backrow depth was questioned. Not so anymore. Olakau’atu is a brute and Schuster’s ballplaying was a highlight of the 2022 season for mine and it’s scary to think what he could become.
Manly’s fourth-place finish in 2021 was spot on. They made light work of most other teams but couldn’t match it with Penrith, Melbourne or Souths and that will be the challenge again in 2022.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Sea Eagles attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
Sweeping backline moves and short passing through the middle will again be a feature of the Sea Eagles’ attack in 2022. Des Hasler has stacked his roster with mobile, skillful players who can move the ball across the park and take advantage of their speed on the edges. We know Tom Trbojevic will play a role in all this, but with a little digging, it’s not as one-out as it appears.
Jake Trbojevic (363 general play passes), Dylan Walker (176), Josh Schuster (143) and, somewhat surprisingly, Martin Taupau (124) all helped Manly shift the ball smoothly and effectively across the field in 2021. The Sea Eagles’ joint effort in this regard saw them rank third for general play passes and second in line engagements across the competition, and I see no reason for that to change in 2022.
I also think we might see a bit more second-phase play.
Feeding ‘Turbo’ direct from dummy-half was more effective than it probably should have been last year and we can expect opposition teams to defend this better in 2022. How you’re supposed to defend him taking possession from an offload and at a broken defensive line is a whole other story. Five of the top 50 off-loaders from last season were Manly players and I think we might see this worked into Hasler’s game plan a little more in 2022.
While most players tend to favour right to left passing which leads to teams scoring down their left edge more often than the right, the Sea Eagles split their field relatively evenly. They scored 36% of their points down the left edge in 2021 and 39% down the right. A lot of that had to do with, again, Trbojevic, and his ability to pop up and play on both sides of the field. While he is always going to be the focus of the defence with or without the ball, his gravity alone should see the Sea Eagles repeat this split field attack in 2022.
With Kieran Foran commanding the left and Daly Cherry-Evans the right, Trbojevic and the Sea Eagles are set up well to target defensive frailties on either side of the field.
~ Oscar & Jason
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Dylan Walker
Not enough people noticed the impact Walker had when he moved into lock in the back end of last year. He only played short stints and was sometimes a target in the defensive line for opposition forwards, but Walker was comfortably a net positive for the Sea Eagles with his involvements through the middle.
With Tom Trbojevic demanding attention from the defence wherever he went, spaces began opening up around the ruck and Walker was the guy to capitalise on it.
In his last seven games off the bench Walker had two tries, one try assist and 26 tackle busts on his way to an average 97.8 running metres per game – not bad for a utility forward filling in at short notice.
With a full offseason training in the middle I’m keen to see how Walker is used in 2022. He’ll never be a great defender but we can expect that to improve along with his positional play and his motor. Manly need to find ways to score without Trbojevic and with his footwork and ballplaying ability through the middle Walker is the perfect candidate for mine.
Jason: Ethan Bullemor
Ethan Bullemor never seemed settled in the Brisbane Broncos 17 last season. He should have been in there every week but moved in and out of the side playing 30+ minutes only four times. Built to play prop in this increasingly fast game, it took too long for Kevin Walters to identify Bullemor as a key part of the rotation. To more surprise, the Broncos let him walk with a year remaining on his contract.
Provided Des Hasler doesn’t make the same mistake, Bullemor is set for a big year. The 21-year-old is excellent on his feet for a 190cm and 110kg unit. His speed allows him to support around the ball like a fullback with his size adding to the difficulty for the defence.
‘Best 17 of players [Club A] have let go’ articles are all the rage at the moment and Bullemor is sure to feature on the next Broncos edition.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: The Trbojevic Special
I just want to see this one again.
The front-on angle doesn’t do justice to the deception of Jake’s ballplaying or the timing of Tom’s run in this action. The defence never sees Tom until he pops out from his brother’s pocket and not even a superb defensive effort from James Tedesco can stop Manly from there.
There’s certainly some added novelty value in seeing Jake and Tom throw this one together (imagine fitting Ben in there somewhere, too!) but I won’t be surprised if it’s someone else throwing that pass in 2022. Des Hasler has ballplayers in Dylan Walker, Kieran Foran and Josh Schuster who are all capable of executing this play and we can wish defending teams goodluck if this trick-shot starts popping up across the park.
Jason: Ben Trbojevic
They always say the younger brother is the best of the bunch…
That’s the word going around about Ben Trbojevic.
A hybrid of his brothers, Ben is taller than Jake at 193cm and heavier than Tom at 105kg. The 20-year-old backrower/centre has only featured in first grade four times with one of those outings lasting just one minute. He played just four games in NSW Cup before his NRL debut.
He’s young, raw and inexperienced but that won’t stop the hype train from pulling out at warp speed should he be named in 2022.
There isn’t an obvious place for him to be crow-barred into right now which could be a good thing for Ben in the end. Still, out of curiosity more than anything else, I’d like to see him out there a few times this year.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Tom Trbojevic ($1,256,100) – I spent the best part of an evening working Tommy Turbo into my team earlier this week so I better mention him here, too. I didn’t start last season with Nathan Cleary and then spent about 16 weeks trying to get him in. I don’t really want to go through that again in 2022.
Haumole Olakau’atu ($512,400) – Olakau’atu finished 2021 as one of the more damaging 80-minute edge forwards in the competition. In his last five games he had three tries, one try assist, 21 tackle busts, six offloads and an average 104 running metres which equated to an average 65 SC points. Whether he can maintain that kind of output for a whole season is another question, but at just 23-years old you could argue there’s still plenty of upside about Olakau’atu.
Morgan Harper ($475,200) – He was a guy I picked out at the start of the year and Harper made me look good right up until his last few games of the season. Like most of Manly’s squad, Harper didn’t play his best footy in the finals series and he has a tough opening fortnight with games against Penrith and Sydney. I’ll be checking Harper’s form and his price leading into Round 3.
Karl Lawton ($346,700) – Somewhat of a forgotten figure considering the utility and SC value he offered when he first broke into the NRL. Effective as a middle or at dummy-half, Lawton now has Walker to compete with in the pack but could take some minutes from Lachlan Croker if Des wants more creativity around the ruck. By no means a pick up right now, but certainly one to watch if he makes it back on the park.
Sean Keppie ($352,200) – A bit of an awkward one given it’s not clear where he fits into this Manly side, but I’m a big Keppie guy and I think he has genuine SC upside. He loves an offload, can bust a tackle and is a handy DPP to boot. His price is a little awkward too but if he can earn decent minutes in Manly’s rotation he could be an interesting POD.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
The focus on Trbojevic
There are a couple of angles I’m looking at here: How the Sea Eagles use Tom Trbojevic in attack and how the opposition defends him.
The Sea Eagles played with a massively Tom-heavy attack in 2021, and while it produced positive results and a good season overall, they looked out of options when the opposition shut him down. The Storm, in particular, made sure to keep note of where he was at all times and asked the rest of the Sea Eagles side to produce without him. They couldn’t.
Des Hasler is surely going to change up how he uses Trbojevic this year. More shape with Trbojevic off the ball seems like the logical approach given how much the opposition focuses in on the fullback.
The Sydney Morning Herald asked all 16 NRL coaches who they do the most homework on when devising a game plan and Trbojevic came out well on top.
He can take possession and run through the bad teams again – he’s that good on his own. It’s against the premiership contenders where he needs to change things up a little bit. With Ivan Cleary and Trent Robinson coming up to start the NRL season, we’re going to get a good idea of how the Sea Eagles plan on using Trbojevic against the top teams and coaches.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Sea Eagles in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Preliminary Finals: We’re big proponents of cohesion in rugby league systems and Manly are bringing virtually their entire 2021 squad into this season. The Schuster’s, Olakau’atu’s and Harper’s of the world should be better again this time around and we know what the spine will offer in attack – but I still don’t see them making the big dance. Melbourne, Penrith, Sydney (and South Sydney to a lesser extent) are an almighty road block in Manly’s pursuit of a premiership in 2022. ~OP
Premiers: The sky’s the limit for the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles in 2022. They pleasantly surprised last season and it won’t be a surprise to see them go all the way in this one. They have the pack to get them up the field, the spine to manufacture points and the individual brilliance of Tom Trbojevic to produce the big plays. Every piece of the puzzle is on the table and it shows the Provan-Summons Trophy when it all comes together in the right way. ~JO
Pass
Finals, Week 2: We can be fairly confident the Sea Eagles will win their fair share of games in 2022. Trbojevic is in a league of his own in today’s game and it would take a wretched injury run for Manly to not play finals footy this year. They’re a chance at fourth spot and a double-life in the finals series but even without that, I’m backing Manly to play at least two finals games this season. ~OP
Preliminary Final: There are a few teams around the Sea Eagles that are likely to improve in 2022, but provided they do the same, another visit to the Preliminary Finals should be the pass mark. Outside of an injury to Tom Trbojevic or Daly Cherry-Evans, there isn’t a reason for this side to go backwards. ~JO
Pit
Finals, Week 1: If Manly finish in the bottom half of the eight this year it means they probably haven’t beat the top four teams throughout the regular season. That would put them in a similar position on the ladder to where they were last year, relatively speaking. The problem for Manly is that the competition isn’t any easier in 2022. Sydney, Cronulla and Parramatta are three clubs off the top of my head who will pose a more considerable threat in this year’s finals series which could spell an early exit for Manly if they’re not careful. ~OP
Finals, Week 1: You can never be totally certain of a team making the Top 8 in the NRL, but it will take a monumental collapse and a string of unfortunate circumstances for the Sea Eagles not to feature in the first week of the finals. They set a new standard for themselves in 2021 and it should translate into back-to-back finals appearances. ~JO