Six teams are down to four as the NRLW finals series kicks off at Suncorp Stadium this Sunday. The unbeaten Roosters and second-placed Knights will both start as firm favourites against the Eels and Dragons respectively, but as we know anything can happen in finals footy.
Let’s take a look below at what each team needs to get right to make it through to the big dance next week.
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Newcastle Knights (2nd) v St George-Illawarra Dragons (3rd)
Deciding Factors – Knights
Millie Boyle, Caitlan Johnston & Tamika Upton
The Newcastle Knights have powered through the 2022 NRLW regular season to finish second in yardage at 1463.3 metres per game and first in post-contact metres at 519.6 metres per game. Thanks largely to the work of Millie Boyle and Caitlan Johnston, the Knights dominate through the middle of the field to record almost one-third of their total running metres after carrying the ball into contact which ultimately invites more defenders into the tackle and gets opposition teams retreating into position when Newcastle play the ball.
From there, the decision-making of Olivia Higgins at dummy-half and the attacking instincts of fullback Tamika Upton have consistently torn defensive systems apart. Higgins is a clever rake who knows when to compress the ruck further or when to pull the trigger, and that trigger is often a pass over the advantage line for Upton who has a license to roam and inject herself where she sees fit.
This scoring action which I awarded Play of the Round back in Round 3 is a perfect example:
“Boyle attracts three defenders to the ball here but still manages to spin and find her front to generate some ruck speed. Johnston follows it up with a strong carry on the following tackle and although her legs are chopped out from under her, Johnston too uses her momentum to find her elbows and knees and get another quick play-the-ball.
Happy to play the long game, Higgins keeps things simple and again looks for Boyle beside the ruck for her second carry in this set.
Again Boyle gets to her feet quickly and while Parramatta’s defensive line retreats, Johnston puts her hand up for another charging run that isolates Christian Pio (11) down the short side to get the Knights rolling downhill.
Newcastle have now gone 50 metres in four tackles through their powerhouse props and as Pio retreats late down the short side on the fourth, Knights fullback Tamika Upton spots something she likes and explodes into gear.
Taking possession on the ad line, Upton puts on a wicked shimmy to hold up the markers before skipping quickly down a narrow right edge. Her footwork brings Simaima Taufa (13) out of the line and into no-mans land when Upton bounces back out off her left foot and sells Tiana Penitani a dummy to slice through the defence. With the fullback still to beat, Upton again steps off that left foot to get around the Gayle Broughton tackle and slam the ball down in the corner.” – Take the Two: NRLW Round 3 Review
It’s one thing to know what’s coming but it’s another thing entirely to defend it. The Dragons will expect Boyle and Johnston to set things up for Upton later in the count but limiting the impact of all three – particularly with Jesse Southwell looking for ways to inject herself too – is a different story all together.
Jesse Southwell
Dominant forward packs and electric fullbacks aside, the luxury for Newcastle in season 2022 has been the stunning debut form of 17-year-old halfback Jesse Southwell.
Just five games into her NRLW career and Southwell is the closest thing we can find in the competition to premiership-winning halfback Raecene McGregor. Equally threatening with a pass, kick or run, Southwell’s injection this year has given the Knights a genuine #7 who can point the team across the park as confidently as she can manufacture scoring opportunities herself.
If St George muscle up through the middle and restrict the momentum of Newcastle’s forward pack, look for Southwell to either find the grass with a yardage kick, orchestrate an exit shift or challenge the line herself:
The Knights are an extremely well-rounded outfit this season and only need to get the basics right on Sunday – run hard through the middle and complete their sets – to give themselves every chance of advancing through to a maiden NRLW Grand Final appearance next weekend.
Deciding Factors – Dragons
Rachael Pearson & Emma Tonegato
Despite boasting one of the most damaging ball carriers in the competition (PNG international Elsie Albert) the Dragons finished the regular season in lowly fifth place for total run metres in 2022. As a result, the impact of last year’s Dally M winner Emma Tonegato at fullback has been somewhat lessened as St George have been forced to look for new ways to work upfield and find points in good ball.
With a dip in running metres this season, the long kicking game of halfback Rachael Pearson has become even more important for the Dragons in 2022. Pearson finished the regular season with 1,384 kicking metres – a good 200m clear of the second-ranked Tayla Preston – as she consistently kicked the Dragons out of trouble and into good field position.
For the Dragons to match it with Newcastle’s pack on Sunday, Pearson’s long kicking game, in particular, will be key to turning the Knights big forwards around and winning St George their share of attacking territory.
Once they do get into good ball, the Dragons attack plays out with one primary focus: getting the ball into the hands of Tonegato. She’s at her best when running the ball but as defending teams tighten up to contain Tonegato in possession, the spaces are opening up for teammates around her.
This scoring action from a set-start in Round 2 is a prime example:
The threat of Tonegato at first receiver here invites Gayle Broughton to break from the scrum and beeline towards her opposite number. The intent is right but the execution is wrong given Broughton gets at Tonegato quickly but leaves a yawning gap to the left between herself and Ashleigh Quinlan (circled). Quinlan can’t keep up with Broughton’s line speed here and is also worried about St George’s backline fanning out to her left, and in her indecision, she presents the Dragons with an opportunity that Tonegato capitalises on. With a slow in her step and a slight pivot off her left foot, Tonegato leans right into the Broughton tackle to pop a lovely short pass for Keele Brown off her hip to score.
The variation St George can produce from these set-starts shapes as a deciding factor on Sunday. More often than not it will be Tonegato in possession here but if the Knights double up on the Dragons fullback then look for her to fill the role of a decoy and open things up for the players around her.
Keeley Davis and Quincy Dodd
A strength for St George in consecutive seasons now has been the one-two punch of Keeley Davis and Quincy Dodd in the dummy-half position. Both are clever playmakers from behind the ruck (they combine for one try and three assists from five games this year) but the two players bring a different skillset to the hooking position at different stages of the game.
Davis is an elite ballplayer. She reads the game smartly and can create scoring opportunities around the ruck often a few tackles in advance as she manipulates defenders and sets things up for the scoring play. Dodd is a little more opportunistic – she’s quick off the mark and has a licence to back herself and run the ball whenever she sees half a gap.
One evolution of the Dragons attack this year has been a transition for Davis into the lock position when Dodd enters the contest. There are still some growing pains associated with this change but we saw in Round 1 the impact Davis can have in a roaming playmaker role one-off the ruck:
The threat of Tonegato on Davis’ inside here prevents the Titans from sliding too early and Davis punishes them with a superb face-ball for her centre Paige McGregor to score. That’s an expert five-eighth action Davis executes here and one that could spell danger signs for the Knights if/when a tired defender looks to catch a breath down a short side.
If the Dragons are struggling for points or momentum against the Knights on Sunday, a shift to first-receiver for Davis and the injection of Dodd around the ruck can give St George a point of difference in how they use the ball in attack.
Sydney Roosters (1st) v Parramatta Eels (4th)
Deciding Factors – Roosters
The Power Game
Much like the Newcastle Knights, the Roosters success in 2022 can be largely attributed to their competition leading forward pack. In most key yardage statistics – supports, line engagements, running metres, post-contact metres, offloads – the Roosters are either comfortable leaders or close behind in second place.
Where the Knights rely heavily on the output of Millie Boyle and Caitlan Johnston in yardage, however, the Roosters adopt more of a team approach.
Three Roosters players sit inside the Top 10 for average run metres this season; left centre Isabelle Kelly (5th – 170.1m), lock-forward Keilee Joseph (7th – 161.8m) and fullback Samantha Bremner (10th – 143.4m). Another six Roosters rank inside the Top 50; starting props Sarah Togatuki (16th) and Mya Hill-Moana (34th), halfback Raecene McGregor (23rd), right centre Jess Sergis (17th), backrower Shaniah Power (30th) and winger Jasmin Strange (35th).
Given how dominant the Roosters have been in yardage this season I expected there to be more Easts players on that list, but it’s evidence of a side that works extremely well as a unit. Forwards and backs both contribute in yardage to get the Roosters rolling downfield and once they get there, this team knows where and how to score their points.
Halves Zahara Temara and Raecene McGregor have forced five goal line drop-outs between them this season. For a side that averages 31.2 points per game in 2022, both Temara and McGregor play with great patience as they build pressure with the boot and wait for their opponents to crack.
When the iron is hot, the Roosters have a variety of shapes and scoring actions to strike with.
Regular readers will know I’ve had the blinkers on for Kelly in a roaming second-fullback role which so far this season has popped up in four of five games to produce a linebreak at worst or a try at best (more on this below).
Closer to the ruck and Destiny Brill has barged over from dummy-half for three tries herself while edge backrowers Olivia Kernick, Shaniah Power and Otesa Pule have six tries and one assist between them thanks to the defensive attention Kelly and Sergis demand out wide and the ballplaying smarts of Temara and McGregor in good ball.
This is an extremely well-drilled and clinical football side that knows its strengths and how to make the most of them. It will take a Herculean effort from the Eels forwards to match them in yardage and even if they can do so, it will then take an equally courageous defensive mindset on their own line to turn the Roosters expansive attack away.
Isabelle Kelly as a second fullback
I’ve covered this within an inch of its life this season so I’ll keep it brief today.
Kelly’s combination with McGregor on the right-hand side of the field has been one of the more reliable attacking actions in the Roosters arsenal this year and I’m expecting it to feature again on Sunday.
McGregor’s timing and deception with the ball in hand is elite and Kelly’s speed and tackle-busting ability makes her the perfect target for this shape. She gets it wrong in the backfield on this occasion but if the game is on the line and the Roosters need points, I’m looking for Kelly to roam from her left-centre position and look for ways to get involved.
Deciding Factors – Eels
Gayle Broughton’s kick returns & Tayla Preston’s boot
If this game plays out like it reads on paper then the Eels are going to spend a lot of time working out of their own end. The dominance of Easts in yardage and the kicking game of Raecene McGregor should consistently hand Parramatta possession deep in their own territory and if the Eels are to win some field position of their own, it will likely come on the back of Gayle Broughton’s efforts in returning the ball.
Five games into her NRLW career and Broughton is looking very comfortable in the fullback position. Her vision, speed and footwork makes for a dangerous kick returner in isolation but Broughton is just as capable of engaging a defender and passing a teammate into space for some easy metres. As such, it’s crucial that wingers Zali Fay and Cassey Tohi-Hiku work hard to get behind the ball on Sunday and support Broughton early in the tackle count.
If the Eels back-three can begin their sets effectively, there are plenty of handy yardage merchants across this Eels line up and we saw last week against the Broncos what they can do with a bit of momentum.
Broughton ran for a season-high 79 kick return metres in Round 5 which coincided with the Eels racking up a season-high 1,806 total running metres in that game. If Broughton can get her side playing on the front foot early in the set, look for Simaima Taufa and Kennedy Cherrington to get over the advantage line and flood the ruck area in Parramatta’s exit sets. The Eels are unlikely to average 46.31 metres per set as they did against the Broncos last week, but if they can generate some ruck speed and work upfield effectively it will open up opportunities for Tayla Preston to kick them to safety.
I’ve already given McGregor, Jesse Southwell and Rachael Pearson a wrap for their kicking games in this preview but since debuting in Round 2 it’s Eels halfback Preston who arguably takes the cake for best boot in the NRLW.
Her 290.2 average kick metres per game is the best in the business but it’s Preston’s attacking kicks that have caused serious issues for opposing back three’s so far this season. Her ability to bring a place kick down just out from the try line and in position for her teammates to contest it is unrivalled and will be crucial to limiting the impact of Samantha Bremner and the Roosters’ competition-leading kick returns (average 164m per game).
Preston’s is a boot that can change the momentum in a contest and she will need to be at her accurate best for the Eels to really challenge the Roosters on Sunday.
Ashleigh Quinlan
I’ve gone a little stats-heavy in this segment but one number in particular stood out to me the most across the four remaining teams is this one:
| Rank | Player | Played | Line Engagements |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ashleigh Quinlan | 4 | 32 |
| 2nd | Raecene McGregor | 4 | 27 |
Regular readers will know I’ve set up camp on Raecene McGregor island this season but the work of Eels five-eighth Ashleigh Quinlan since making her NRLW debut in Round 2 deserves a mention in the lead-up to Sunday’s game.
I did a deep dive on Quinlan’s involvements in Parramatta’s win over the Broncos last week so I won’t repeat myself too much here, other than to say that if the Eels are to put a few points on the Roosters this weekend it’ll likely come through Quinlan and Parramatta’s left edge.
Quinlan’s ability to skip to the outside of a defender with her speed and then dig into the line before passing has netted her three try assists and five linebreak assists from four games in the regular season. She’s got good vision and pass selection and more importantly a sound ‘feel’ for the game and when to pull the trigger.
This action last week was a beauty:
“She takes possession on tackle four thanks to a three pass shift but Brisbane’s edge defence has come up to shut Quinlan’s time down. Not liking what she sees, there’s touch football all over the way Quinlan bounces off the left foot and passes in one motion back inside to Tayla Preston to reload on the play. Quinlan takes her next possession one-off the ruck and at a tiring defensive line – two improvements on the previous tackle – and sums things up with a brilliant double cut-out pass to get winger Zali Fay outside her opposite to score in the corner.” – Take the Two: NRLW Round 5 Review
Finals footy is a different ball game and an upset isn’t out of the question, but we’ll need to see the very best out of Broughton, Preston and Quinlan in particular if the Eels are to advance to the big dance next week.