The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 21 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Thursday Night Members Preview
The Dragons host the Tigers in a major Spoon Bowl matchup on Thursday night. While it doesn’t profile as a must-watch game, there are two key elements to consider that have the potential to generate an exciting 80 minutes.
Who will the Cowboys pick out this week?
I highlighted how the North Queensland Cowboys are generating momentum by picking out defenders and playing on the back of it last week:
“In just the last two weeks, they have forced Lachlan Ilias into making a career-high 27 tackles and Brandon Wakeham into 28 tackles – one short of his career-high. Asked to attempt 32 tackles in Round 14, Cameron Munster has only finished nine matches with more attempts in his 185-game NRL career.”
In Round 20 against the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, the Cowboys forced 54 tackles out of Lachlan Croker. He’s only made more tackles in one other match throughout his 98-game career.
Every team picks out a spot they like in the defensive line. It’s not a concept that will surprise anybody. However, how well the Cowboys are executing in getting at their spots and playing on the back of it seems to be the big difference between their early-season and more recent form.
A fine example came in the lead-up to Jeremiah Nanai’s try towards the end of the first half.
Surging up the field and earning a ruck infringement (with Croker involved in his third tackle of the set already) you can see Chad Townsend point Valentine Holmes back to him on the drop. With Croker involved in the tackle and at first marker, Jason Taumalolo then makes him a target.
Taumalolo is one of the most destructive ball carriers in the NRL. He demands three into the tackle, especially if a smaller player is the first contact. Getting over the top of Croker and getting a quick play-the-ball away, Taumalolo has generated the ruck speed for his backline to score on the following play.
Croker is late into the line down the short side. He’s effectively out of the play given how quickly Taumalolo was able to get up and play the ball. Reuben Garrick isn’t a genuine defender in the line either. He’s pointing for his markers to close the space and contain Reuben Cotter on Townsend’s inside.
With the long pass allowing Townsend to get into the five-man and Griffin Neame’s line holding up four, the Cowboys have the overlap and Tom Dearden makes the most of it by selling a dummy and putting Nanai over untouched.
As is often the case, though, it all starts with a Taumalolo carry with the big Tongan generating the ruck speed and creating the splits for Townsend and company to exploit.
So, who will it be this week?
Brendan Hands is a smaller hooker that has been a target in the line at times already this season. Daejarn Asi, while excellent with the ball in hand, has struggled to cement a spot in first grade due, I’m guessing, to his defence.
I’m tipping Hands to be the target for generating ruck speed before a longer shift directed at the space around Asi.
Big ins
The state of this ins list for South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane Broncos…
As Matt said on the NRL Boom Rookies podcast, this is an ins list one halfback away from winning the premiership.
This week marks the beginning of a run towards the NRL Finals for both teams.
The Rabbitohs need to recapture their form and develop cohesion following a lengthy period not only without Latrell Mitchell but with other players moving in and out of the side due to injury and Origin.
Meanwhile, the Broncos will have the back end of the 2022 NRL season on their minds this week. They sat 4th on the ladder with 12 wins and six losses after 18 games last year before losing five of their last six and falling out of the Top 8 entirely. This is a better squad and Reece Walsh is a big inclusion this week. Still, their 2022 squad should have at least played finals football and will be weary of making the same mistakes again this time around.
This game should be the match of the round.
Tracey Watch
With seven tries and four try assists in ten appearances to go along with 174 running metres per game, Connor Tracey has been ripping through New South Wales Cup this year. He, alongside Braydon Trindall, is a key component to the Newtown Jets attack. Where Tracey goes, the ball tends to follow.
He has been named to start at fullback in all of his Cup appearances so far this season but is in the centres on Sunday. Reliable with the ball in any position, it will be his defence that determines whether or not he stays in first grade for the rest of the NRL season.
The Matt Moylan/Siosifa Talakai combination never looked comfortable in defence and Craig Fitzgibbon has finally broken the pair up. Neither Trindall nor Tracey are known for their defensive ability, but it’s worth a shot for Fitzgibbon at this point.
More good NRL & NRLW reads
The demise of Twitter has made stumbling on good NRL content even more difficult so I think it’s important to share it around where possible. Here are a few things – sometimes not specifically rugby league related but lead me to rugby league thoughts – that I’ve read or listened to recently:
- Double celebration for Kumuls as World Cup roomies debut
- Kelly eager for Hall combo after years of rivalry
- STATS DROP: Round 20, 2023
- Why are the Sharks toothless against top eight sides?
Bulldogs Defence
The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs defence has fallen off a cliff.
They’ve not been a good footy side for a long time, but they’ve always had some bite in defence. While it may not have lasted the full 80 minutes, you could see the work they were putting in off the ball. That hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. In fact, the Bulldogs have conceded more points in five weeks (244) than the Penrith Panthers have all season (218).
The two teams go head-to-head in a match everybody expects to be a blowout. Still, the Bulldogs can start their gradual improvement to finish 2023 and into 2024 with a strong defensive performance in this one.
I’ll be looking at their edges most closely. The Brisbane Broncos made it look easy at times, taking gaps as they came and piling up points.
The best defensive teams in the NRL, as the Bulldogs will see first-hand this week, work hard from the inside to help their edges. In this case, Reed Mahoney is tight to the ruck despite there being no Broncos player in front of him, leaving Toby Sexton on an island and exposed.
Later in the half, Braidon Burns gets up high off his line but those around him don’t follow.
Up. Back. Left. Right. Left.
Matt Burton bites and bounces inside him, too.
It looks like Blake Wilson has made a poor read on his wing, but he’s just taking the cues from the players inside him and doing what he can by the time the ball reaches him.
A good defence starts in the middle. If you’re getting bashed and giving up ruck speed, your outside men don’t stand a chance. Nonetheless, I’m looking at how the Bulldogs move as a unit when they’re, no doubt, regularly tested by the Panthers defence.
ICYMI: How the Knights scored two tries in three minutes
On these two occasions, the trigger is Daniel Saifiti in the middle of the field, their shape is a block play around Brandon Wakeham, and they pulled both off with four and five defenders in front of them.
Introducing Mele Hufanga
I wrote about Valynce Te Whare having the potential to take on cult figure status before the 2023 NRL season.
Now it’s Mele Hufanga’s turn.
They’re somewhat similar in that they’re a bigger unit at centre. Both are quick for their size, break tackles and can create something from nothing with the ball.
Like Te Whare, Hufanga has a rugby union background. She has played for Auckland since 2011, spent the 2022 season with the Blues Women’s side and featured for Tonga in the same year. Towards the back end of 2022, she turned out for the Kiwi Ferns at the Rugby League World Cup.
She has experience in the game but this is her first season on the NRLW radar for most.
Give her space, and she’s going to make something happen.
However, as was the case with Te Whare earlier in the year, the concerns come in defence. Against the best centre in women’s rugby league in Isabelle Kelly this week, we’re going to learn rather quickly whether or not Hufanga has what it takes to keep up with the elite players in the competition without the ball.
Roosters developing the attack
This Sydney Roosters NRLW side is stacked.
If Amber Hall, Tarryn Aiken and Isabelle Kelly are all on the left edge, I don’t think there is a defence in the competition that can regularly stop them.
Hall is one of the most destructive players in the game, Aiken’s ball-playing improves every year as she continues on her path to being the premiership half in the competition, and Kelly is arguably the best player in the world on her day.
You wouldn’t think they need to do much different to normal to pile up points. However, Aiken said something interesting about their attack to Alicia Newton at NRL.com.
“He’s [coach, John Strange] a very smart guy and it will be different to most teams in how we’re going to attack but that’s exciting and a big development in the women’s game.”
What is going to be different?
Will it work?
Will other teams copy their approach in the future?
I’m looking forward to seeing it all play out.
My guess at the first attacking raid, though: Millie Boyle charging at the left post for Aiken, Hall and Kelly to terrorize four defenders on the short side. Give me Hall wrapping Kelly in a block for the first try.