The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. Up next, it’s the Melbourne Storm as they look to go at least one better this time around.
Melbourne Storm 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Xavier Coates, A typical Storm guy
- Sections Wishlist: Reimis Smith & Nick Meaney on the right edge, Jack Howarth
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: Cameron Munster’s Influence
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the Melbourne Storm 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
It was all Ryan Papenhuyzen to begin 2021. In his first five games Papenhuyzen had eight line breaks for eight tries, four try assists, 23 tackle busts and an average 208.6 running meters per match. That’s Tom Trbojevic-like numbers and they would only dry up when Papenhuyzen was ruled out with concussion symptoms.
In his absence, Nicho Hynes developed out of sight to become one of the premier attacking players in the competition. His support play and playmaking ability at fullback saw him pick up seven tries, 17 try assists and a tidy contract with the Sharks along the way.
Another notable mention from last season was Brandon Smith. ‘The Cheese’ was consistently one of the Storm’s best whether at hooker or when switching to lock. He spent more time in his preferred position of dummy-half last season than ever before and did enough to get the Roosters crowing. Smith has one year left with Melbourne and if you think he won’t still be the best effort player on the park in 2022 then I can’t help you.
Melbourne finished the 2021 regular season having broken multiple long-standing point-scoring records, but it meant nothing against a resolute Penrith Panthers side who kept them to just six points in the prelim. That loss sparked discussion about the absence of Cameron Smith, which until that point in the season had rarely been a factor. Overall, a minor premiership and a third place finish would suggest the Storm adjusted fairly well to life without the GOAT in 2021.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Storm attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
Why change a winning formula?
Well, the Storm always do and that’s why they’ve been so successful for so long. They’re the benchmark of the competition because they’re so often ahead of the game and the trends – setting them, even.
They ripped through the NRL in 2020 by using their ball-playing middles to shift the ball wide to their edges early and often. Josh Addo-Carr, in particular, became especially valuable in yardage sets as Melbourne went around the opposition to either eat metres or score a long-range try.
Their approach was similar in 2021 but had more of a focus on the advantage line though the middle. With the six-again rule predictably bad and easy for the good teams to manipulate on both sides of the ball, Melbourne crashed the middle early into their sets and kept crashing when presented with six more tackles. They tired out the defensive line, compressed the middle, and found try-scoring success on the edges. Their 43 tries scored through the middle of the field was the most in the NRL, too.
Craig Bellamy will make adjustments for 2023 but expect a similar approach. He still has the cattle to get up the field and the spine to create points behind it.
Dale Finucane is a significant loss on the ball-playing side of things but it’s an area of Christian Welch’s game that he has been working on. It’s also a spot Brandon Smith can fill when Harry Grant is in at dummy half. Nelson Asofa-Solomona may spend more time in a traditional lock role and that’s where we might start to see a slight change to the game plan.
The Storm have never been a hugely prolific off-loading team:
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offloads Per Game | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| NRL Rank | 9th | 9th | 15th | 6th | 5th |
However, with yet another rule change reducing the number of six-again calls, the Storm may look for other ways to generate those extra carries at the defensive line. They have the players to expose compressed defences. Offloading the football and continuing straight up the field – like they would a following a six-again call – is one way Bellamy can force the opposition middle into making extra tackles.
Asofa-Solomona is the perfect candidate for throwing a late offload while working up the field. Brandon Smith’s pinball running style lends itself to arms being free as well.
The Storm knows what they want to do: Compress the middle, hit the edges on 3rd or 4th tackle, find a post, fire a shot. It’s the same story, a different year. It’s how they do it that will be interesting to follow as we know Bellamy won’t trot out exactly the same game plan as he did last year.
~ Oscar & Jason
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Xavier Coates
He might already be an Origin player with 32 first-grade games to his name, but you’re kidding yourself if you think we’ve seen the best of Coates just yet. He’s a rare example of Melbourne getting active in the market and signing an established talent which is all the more reason to expect big things from Coates in a purple jumper. He slots straight into the best position in rugby league on Melbourne’s left wing and I’m not the only one who thinks he can become a generational talent under Craig Bellamy’s tutelage.
“I think of Koroibete, Vunivalu, Addo-Carr and I think Xavier Coates will be pushing that marker to be one of the best wingers in the game within a very quick period within the start of the 2022 season.” – Cooper Cronk
There’s one name Cronk left out here that comes to mind when you type ‘Xavier Coates’ into YouTube.
Israel Folau, anyone?
I’ve already declared Coates as my pick for top try scorer in 2022 and I can’t wait to see what he develops into in Melbourne. I don’t think we’ll have to wait long.
Jason: A typical Storm guy
It took a little while for me to think through this segment. Craig Bellamy always finds a diamond in the rough that is the back end of his roster and I’m looking out early for who that might be in 2022.
Josh King spent six years playing some decidedly average football at the Knights but finds himself at one of the best clubs in the competition this season. The staff obviously see something in him.
Tyran Wishart’s famous last name wasn’t enough for him to stay involved with the St. George-Illawarra Dragons and he is now looking to crack first-grade in Melbourne.
Nick Meaney has all of the skills and looks like the perfect player to take his game to another level at the Storm.
Will Warbrick is an All Black Sevens representative who could be anything in rugby league.
Jayden Nikorima is back in the NRL after struggling through off-field issues since his last game in 2016. Passing the ‘no dickhead’ test in Melbourne is a very encouraging sign given his skilset and ability.
There is no coach or club in the competition that unearths unexpected talent more often than Bellamy and the Storm. One of these guys is going to massively exceed expectations and become a key figure within the side this season. Meaney is the most likely in a role similar to that of Nicho Hynes in 2021, but Warbrick is the most intriguing for mine.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Reimis Smith & Nick Meaney on the right edge
Regular readers will know we’re big Reimis Smith guys here at RLW. He entered the Storm system last season as a fringe first-grader on a bargain deal and finished the year as one of the best centres in the competition, statistically. Per Fox Sports Lab, Smith’s 87% tackle efficiency – in the hardest defensive position on the field – ranks him first among full-time centers in 2021.
He also scored 14 tries and set up three more despite playing in a new system and with unfamiliar players rotated around him.
That all changes in 2022.
I can’t speak for Jase, but I’m also a big Nick Meaney guy. He profiles as the quintessential Craig Bellamy player – tries his guts out, smart, versatile and super consistent – and he’s my pick for Melbourne’s right wing in 2022.
Meaney was always one of Canterbury’s best in a losing side and now he gets a chance to show us what he can do in an elite system. On the right edge he will link with former Bulldogs’ teammate Smith and he also provides quality fullback cover if/when Papenhuyzen is on Origin duty. It’s a no brainer for me.
Jason: Jack Howarth
Well, the secret is out about Jack Howarth.
He has been on my radar for a couple of years and looks set to make his NRL debut in 2022.
This kid is huge. He’s listed at 193cm and 105kg but it’s his speed and footwork that will make him particularly dangerous in first grade.
It’s not yet clear whether or not the Storm see him as a centre or a backrower, but I don’t care what number he wears at the moment. I just want to see the 19-year-old out there to see what he’s got.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Cameron Munster ($649,800) – If you believe everything you read in the media then Munster is in for one hell of a year. I usually block out that kind of rhetoric but given Munster’s class I won’t put it past him. He had a quiet season by his standards in 2021 (Jase has more on this below) and was still the overall fourth best pick at five-eighth in SC. Do with that what you will.
Xavier Coates ($358,400) – I’ve already said it in an earlier segment so I won’t repeat myself here. If things work out the way they usually do in Melbourne then Coates could become one of the best wingers we’ve ever seen in the next few years. He won’t be this cheap for long.
Jack Howarth ($175,400) – I wouldn’t be buying him until he gets a regular bench role but keep your eyes on this kid. He looks in the Angus Crichton mould and presents as the next man up to take Felise Kaufusi’s place next season. Mightn’t be SC relevant this season but I also won’t be surprised if he turns out to be.
Tepai Moeroa ($205,100) – Profiles as a bit of a SC trap given how stacked the Storm’s forward pack is but there’s a changing of the guard in Melbourne and Moeroa could be a guy to benefit. If he gets a regular spot in the forward rotation he could make us some steady cash in the middle of the season.
Trent Loiero ($324,800) – Go back and watch the highlights from the Storm v Warriors trial. More specifically, watch the pass Loiero threw for Xavier Coates’ first try (and first touch) in Melbourne colours. I didn’t know he had that in his game and it’s parked him straight on my watchlist. Craig Bellamy needs a replacement for Kenny Bromwich in 2023 and Loiero looks like the guy at time of writing. He’s probably not SC relevant until he gets a starting spot but he’s one to watch when he does.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
Cameron Munster’s Influence
The 27-year-old didn’t have his best season last year according to most reporting on the game.
The numbers are there: 20 games, 7 tries, 13 try assists, 113 running metres per game. However, there was the general feeling that he under-performed throughout the year.
Perhaps it is relative to Jahrome Hughes and his 9 tries and 19 try assists?
Nicho Hynes producing better numbers with 7 tries and 17 try assists could have had something to do with the feeling around Munster?
Or, is it due to a change in playing style?
We’re accustomed to seeing Munster insert himself into the attack when the Storm are firing their best shots. Whether it be plugging into the short side to pair with his left centre and winger, or sweeping around to the right and taking whatever the defence offers, Munster has provided the finishing touch to a dangerous action in attack in recent years.
In 2021, on the other hand, Munster took on a lot more of the on-ball duties.
He averaged 41.9 touches per game in 2020. That number rocketed up to 53.4 touches per game in 2021, showing just how much more he handled the ball and that it’s not a lack of involvement that hindered his perceived influence on the attack, but an increase in involvement changing what that influence looks like.
Unfortunately, passes before the try assist aren’t something we have publicly available from the NRL but I’ll hazard a guess and say Munster is effective in that department.
Without Cameron Smith there to direct the Storm around the field, somebody needed to step up. It didn’t always look obvious that Munster had assumed that role last year so it’s something I’m looking at a little more closely in 2022.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Storm in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Premiers: I’m intrigued to see how Melbourne performs in 2023 given the players leaving at the end of this season, but for now the juggernaut rolls on. We didn’t even get close to seeing the best of Harry Grant, Cameron Munster or Ryan Papenhuyzen in 2021 and the Storm still finished the regular season as minor premiers. They then went on to play their worst game in recent memory in the prelims and still fell just four points short to eventual premiers Penrith. They’ll have a point to prove in 2022 and motivation to farewell multiple club stalwarts at the end of the season, too. Lookout. ~OP
Premiers: I can’t remember the last time the Storm weren’t considered premiership contenders at this stage of the season. Their playing group and coaching staff continue to come up with the goods and their preparation is highlighted in their incredible record in Round 1 since Bellamy took over as coach. There are a few little question marks around given a handful of influential departures. Still, a lot of quality remains and they always find a way to fill the void. ~JO
Pass
Top 4: There aren’t many teams deserving of a pass mark so high, but this is the Melbourne Storm we’re talking about. They’ve recruited smartly to have good depth in key positions and their spine is arguably the most established in the competition. Anything less than a top four finish this year will be a failure in Craig Bellamy’s eyes. ~OP
Top 4: The top of the NRL ladder looks as though it could be fairly congested by the end of Round 25. It doesn’t really matter who occupies which spot in the Top 4 but five teams are in the hunt right now and the Storm can consider the regular season a pass if they can land somewhere up there. ~JO
Pit
5th or lower: If one of Munster or Hughes are out for an extended period I think the Storm can cover it. So too with Papenhuyzen and Grant. But if multiple key players miss too many games even Melbourne will feel the hit. A horror injury run could see the Storm slide out of the top four, but I can’t see a world where they miss the eight. ~OP
6th: The general consensus is that there are five really good teams at the top. If we assume a bolter comes from nowhere which is fairly common, the Storm shouldn’t finish any lower than 6th. Something has gone terribly wrong if they’re even flirting with the bottom of the Top 8. ~JO