The 2022 NRL season isn’t far away so Oscar Pannifex and Jason Oliver are previewing all 16 clubs before Round 1. First, it’s the Brisbane Broncos who could shock a few people if everything breaks the right way.
Brisbane Broncos 2022 Season Preview:
- The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
- Predicted Profile In 2022
- Breakout Season Candidates: Jake Turpin & Tesi Niu
- Sections Wishlist: Selwyn Cobbo, Patrick Carrigan
- SuperCoach Game Theory
- Notepad: How the Broncos move around the field
- Predictions: Peak, Pass & Pit
The 2021 NRL Season In 200 Words
We’re looking back at the Brisbane Broncos 2021 Season Review for a quick recap on how it all played out.
On paper, it wasn’t a successful first season in charge for new head coach Kevin Walters.
Seven wins and 17 losses isn’t a great record, but winning competitions is only a realistic goal for a select few teams. Walters was tasked with rebuilding the club’s culture, and in that, you could argue he has been successful. Three wins from their last seven games saw Brisbane finish the season playing a far more cohesive and competitive brand of footy. The turnstile edge defence of 2019-20 patched itself up as the season went on and once combinations were given a chance to form in the spine, Brisbane managed to score a few points themselves.
The Brodie Croft experiment finally ended with Tyson Gamble and Albert Kelly preferred in the halves as this season progressed. Gamble in particular was a revelation at a time where Brisbane were under criticism for their defensive enthusiasm. Tesi Niu took his chance at fullback and Herbie Farnworth locked down a centre spot. Pat Carrigan’s injury allowed Jordan Riki, TC Robati and Kobe Hetherington to impress while Payne Haas continued on his incredible trajectory as arguably the game’s best prop.
Some might call 2021 a pass – just.
Predicted Profile In 2022
What will the Broncos attack look like this season? We take a stab at profiling their playing style ahead of Round 1 of the 2022 NRL season.
Brisbane are one of the teams I’m more excited to watch in 2022. The talent has been there for a while now but they’ve desperately lacked on-field leadership and experience.
Enter Adam Reynolds.
Just as we saw in 2020-21, Reynolds is likely to play at first receiver on both sides of the ruck. The Broncos have a capable playmaker in Jake Turpin at dummy-half (more on that below) but are lacking an established ballplayer in the pack. Kobe Hetherington is an exciting talent and Pat Carrigan can string a pass together, but I’m expecting Nathan Cleary-like touches per game from Reynolds as he passes this team across the park.
We know the game has moved wider and it’s an area of strength for the Broncos in 2022.
Kurt Capewell, Jordan Riki and TC Robati all pose a considerable threat on the edges and Reynolds is a guy who can bring them into the game. Riki, in particular, is one Brisbane didn’t use nearly enough last year in attack.
Riki is virtually unstoppable in a one-on-one situation and Reynolds is up there with the best of them at creating actions like this. Brisbane have the pack to generate momentum around the ruck and now they’ve got a half who can shift the ball at the right time and to the right places.
It might sound simple, but three rolling hit-ups to a post before Reynolds spreads it wide to a Riki or a Kotoni Staggs will be a go-to repeatable action for the Broncos in 2022. It’s back to basics stuff for Brisbane but they have the roster to threaten with simple shape and it’s where Reynolds is at his crafty, consistent best.
(NB: since time of writing there’s been reports that Kurt Capewell will play on the right edge with Reynolds. He’s not as destructive as Riki but runs a brilliant line and has the ballskills to link with Kotoni Staggs on his outside. He’s also a better defender in a crucial defensive position. I don’t mind this from Kevvie.)
There will also be a few points scored from kicks.
Between Selwyn Cobbo, Corey Oates and Jamayne Issako the Broncos are not short of an aerial target out wide and now they’ve got a sharpshooter to boot. Brisbane’s inability to get the most out of Xavier Coates last year is a perfect example of where Reynolds instantly improves this Broncos side in 2022.
It’s going to be hard to watch for this Souths’ tragic…
~ Oscar
Breakout Season Candidates
Some started to breakout in 2021 while others are ripe and ready to announce themselves to the NRL in 2022. Oscar and Jason highlight one player they think will take a leap this season.
Oscar: Jake Turpin
I’ve been a Jake Turpin guy for a while now. I said this last year in Brisbanes’ 2021 season review:
“[2022] feels like it could be a breakout year for Turpin. He’s probably been asked to do a little too much in this Broncos side to date but with an established halfback in Reynolds steering the ship Turpin will be freed up to pick his moments in attack.” – Broncos 2021 Season Review
He’s far from the complete package but Turpin gives absolutely everything whenever he takes the field and he’s a clever attacking hooker. Most of the errors Turpin makes have been a result of him trying too hard in a team that couldn’t get much right. I’m backing that to change in 2022.
With Adam Reynolds shouldering the bulk of playmaking responsibilities, Turpin can narrow his focus on combining with his forwards around the ruck like this:
A slight motion infield gets both markers moving sideways before Turpin bounces back across the ruck to link with a charging Tevita Pangai Jr.. TPJ cuts in behind the ruck for some easy metres and suddenly Brisbane are out of their own end and out of trouble.
This was classic dummy-half work from Turpin and I want more. He’s got the troops around him in Brisbane’s pack to create opportunities through the middle and he’s quick enough to go himself if there’s some ruck speed.
Jason: Tesi Niu
Niu’s ability in attack seems grossly underrated at this point.
A lot of that will have to do with the fact he has played for a Brisbane Broncos side that has ranked 16th and 14th in attack across the last two NRL seasons. Still, his footwork is elite on the rare occasions he’s able to use it.
I covered a couple of encouraging games of Niu’s last season after Round 16. Kevin Walters and the Broncos started to put Niu into better positions to use his feet.
After threatening close to the line off a scrum in Round 14…
…he broke through the line off another in Round 15 with the same stop, skip and speed through the gap:
I don’t think opposition defences are ready for Niu to play regular football at fullback just yet. He’s not a focus of the line and his support play improved as his fullback match fitness progressed. If he can be isolated onto defenders and put in one-on-one situations, the Broncos are going to find a lot more success with the ball in 2022.
Section Wishlist
Whether it be likely or unlikely, good or bad, Jason and Oscar have a couple of players on their selection wishlist in 2022.
Oscar: Selwyn Cobbo
Selwyn Cobbo is a mouthwatering talent. The way he dominated in the Intrust Super Cup finals series last year following his NRL debut was frankly absurd and if he can carry that confidence into 2022 he’ll be something to watch.
I won’t rule out some time spent at centre or fullback, but at 19-years old Cobbo’s best fit is on the right wing. Adam Reynolds can target him with the boot and with shape but there’s one thing, in particular, I want to see from Cobbo on that edge:
This was one of the best tries from the 2021 season and I want to see Reynolds and Cobbo emulate it for Brisbane this year. Switch Kotoni Staggs and Cobbo for one play and watch the kid fly onto a Reynolds’ short ball and punch through that hole like a runaway train.
Please, Kevvie.
Jason: Patrick Carrigan at prop
Patrick Carrigan’s name is going to be one of the first I look for on the Tuesday afternoon before Round 1.
He isn’t their best option at #13. I’m not so sure he’s even a good option at the position. He does, however, profile as an effective prop in the NRL.
Carrigan is an effort man. He’s not especially talented but rips into every action he’s involved in and can never be accused of taking the easy option. If anything, he is prone to taking every option he has to carry the football which stalls the Broncos attacking action. The ball dies with him. With the game so reliant on moving the ball early and often, having the ball get stuck with a middle forward and allowing the defence to readjust applies a swift handbrake to the attack overall.
He does have the skill set to move the ball. Again, it’s not at an excellent level for a lock but Carrigan can make a pass and it’s easy to picture him starting on one of his typically hard carries before putting his body on the line and tipping the ball to a fellow forward before he’s hit.
I expect to see Carrigan named in #13 for Round 1 but hope it’s Kobe Hetherington.
SuperCoach Game Theory
RLW is venturing into the fantasy space this year and Oscar will be keeping a rolling watch list from week-to-week. Not everything translates from field to fantasy but if something catches my eye or there’s value hiding somewhere, it’ll go on the list.
Jake Turpin ($394,100) – You already know I’m a Turpin guy and I think there could be some upside about him this year. Working in his favour is that Turpin is the only recognised hooker at the club and should be playing an 80 minute role this year. He also should be posting more than two try assists and two linebreak assists per season with guys like Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan and Ryan James pushing up around the ruck. I don’t have him yet but I’ll be watching Kevvie’s rotations closely to begin the season.
Kotoni Staggs ($433,100) – We already know what Staggs can do inside 80 minutes but this year he’s got a premier halfback feeding him pill. Staggs (and Tesi Niu) are two guys I think will benefit most from Adam Reynolds’ arrival this year and I’m expecting Brisbane’s right edge to feature heavily in the highlight reels this season.
Tesi Niu ($511,300) – We’ve seen the individual brilliance of his running game but Niu’s will be all the more effective with Reynolds constructing positive involvements for him in attack. Niu made just six linebreaks in 16 games last year – I’m expecting Reynolds alone to help him double that number.
Kurt Capewell ($430,500) & Jordan Riki ($454,00) – There’s value in both but whoever gets that right back-row position is going straight in my squad. Capewell is the better defender and has the skills to link with a Staggs, Niu or Selwyn Cobbo outside him while Riki is a hole-hitting, tackle-busting rig who will hugely benefit from a genuine halfback beside him.
Kobe Hetherington ($301,200) – If he keeps the starting lock position then Hetherington is straight in my squad. Big, fast and skillfull, Hetherington was a point of difference in Brisbane’s pack last year and at 5% ownership, he’s a point of difference option in SuperCoach, too. Watch closely.
2022 NRL Notepad
Jason has pulled the wrapper off a fresh notepad and has a few pages filled already with the 2022 NRL season in mind.
The Broncos have been bad for too long but it hasn’t always been down to bad players. Anthony Seibold has been and gone; we don’t need to add much more on that. And while Kevin Walters has triggered somewhat of an improvement, there is still a long way for this group to go. Still, there is reason to be optimistic of a decent leap in 2022.
Outside of their terrible defence at times, Brisbane’s biggest issue has been getting around the field. They’ve lacked a leader. Somebody to take the bull by the horns and orchestrate the final three or four sets of a match to secure a win. Too often we’ve seen capable players look lost on the field, in need of a pointing finger or authoritative voice. Even in games the Broncos have played well, they’ve come undone when the pressure builds.
They now have their leader in Adam Reynolds.
How he gets the team around the field is going to be crucial to Brisbane’s success.
He’s not going to send 20+ team mates over the line this year. He only handed out seven try assists all of last season despite playing within one of the best attacks in the NRL. Reynolds often threw the pass before the pass that led to points.
He’s not going to skip through the line all that often either. Reynolds recorded only two line breaks across all of last season. It isn’t in his game to run at a gap and attempt to break through. Instead, he approaches the line to engage defenders -compressing the line and opening up opportunities to isolate defenders – before shifting the ball. No player engaged the line more times than Reynolds’ 182 line engagements in 2021. Anthony Milford was the top Broncos player on the list with 69 line engagements.
Reynolds brings a leadership and attacking style the Broncos have severely lacked in recent years. I’m excited to see what their attack looks like and how they go about implementing the changes overall.
Peak, Pass, Pit
Oscar and Jason give their predicted peak for the Broncos in 2022 along with a pass mark and worst-case scenario.
Peak
Finals, Week 1: Adam Reynolds will have to be everything they bought him for and more, but Brisbane playing finals footy this year isn’t completely out of the question in 2022. They’ve recruited well and have some of the most exciting young talent in our competition. If they do manage to tie it all together on the field I’m not ruling out a 7th or 8th place finish. ~OP
Top 8: This is a Top 8 quality roster. Whatever does end up happening, the group Kevin Walters has right now is capable of playing finals football.
A lot needs to go well and it needs to start early. If it takes too long to settle on a best 17 then they might run out of time. Still, all things going well and if Reynolds stays healthy, it won’t surprise to see them play in Week 1 of the NRL Finals. ~JO
Pass
>12th: Realistically speaking, finals footy is probably another year away for the Broncos. The competition isn’t getting any easier and it will take time for the new spine and a young backline to gel. Slightly improving on their 16th (2020) and 15th (2021) placed finishes of recent years should be the pass mark for 2022. ~OP
10 wins: If the Broncos can’t climb the ladder and at least be a mathematical chance of making the Top 8 late in the season, something has gone terribly wrong. The players are there and so too is the experience the side has lacked in recent seasons. They should win at least three more games in 2022. ~JO
Pit
Bottom 4: There is too much strike in this Broncos side to be a bottom four team two years running and the pressure is on to produce results. With The Dolphins arriving next year there will be plenty of fed-up Brisbane locals looking elsewhere if Kevin Walters’ team can’t climb off the bottom of the NRL compeladder. ~OP
Bottom 4: I’ve mentioned concerns around Walters not getting his best 17 right. Carrigan is one name that could be telling early on while the options at five-eighth may trigger a carosel of faces through the #6 jersey. I don’t trust them enough to rule out another bottom four finish. ~JO