Oscar has pinched Jason’s pen and paper to bring you the NRL Preview Notepad each week in 2024. Here’s everything you need to know heading into NRL Round 8.
ANZAC Day Deciding Factors
Gold Coast Titans @ New Zealand Warriors (2:00pm)
Per Stats Insider, the Gold Coast Titans left edge has conceded a worrying 14/31 tries in just six games to kickoff the NRL regular season. Des Hasler is still searching for a winning defensive combination on that edge with Beau Fermor in particular being spotted up a few times by opposing teams as he works his way back from an extended injury layoff.
Jase dropped a timely piece on ‘Why wingers jam’ last week and it flows nicely into some of the movements Alofiana Khan-Pereira was forced into in NRL Round 7 as the Sea Eagles made Fermor a target in attack.
You can see Kieran Foran pointing Fermor to his inside as Manly search right here:
Foran is waiting for Fermor to pressure Haumole Olakau’atu from the inside so he can slide out and number up correctly, but instead the Titans five-eighth gets stuck on the lead runner.
When the pass goes out the back, it looks like Brian Kelly and Khan-Pereira have had a mare but in reality they’ve just been isolated by the lack of pressure coming from the inside.
It was a rinse and repeat for the Sea Eagles and Jason Saab just minutes later.
Chris Randall works hard to get at Daly Cherry-Evans here but Fermor is passive next to him in the line:
With Fermor effectively marking no one, Foran is again waiting to be released from the Olakau’atu decoy and can’t get to Luke Brooks in time to shut down the try assist pass. Khan-Pereira again looks the culprit but there’s little he could do here with a two-on-three situation coming at him from the inside.
Now let’s compare the actions leading up to Trbojevic’s second try in NRL Round 7.
It’s David Fifita in for Fermor here and we can see how hard the big unit works to release his outside men:
Even with the ball well past him, Fifita busts his arse to get at Trbojevic before he passes Saab down the touchline. Fifita’s efforts release Khan-Pereira just early enough to chase down his opposite number and the Titans are unlucky to not wrap things up from there.
It takes a poor movement from Foran, a questionable decoy from Olakau’atu and three slick passes from Manly to break the line on this occasion – much more difficult than what the Titans asked of Manly earlier on in this one.
A match-up against New Zealand – who score 46% of points down their right edge – in NRL Round 8 doesn’t profile well for the Gold Coast to secure their first win of the season, but there have been improvements in all of the Titans losses to date and it feels like we’re not far away from seeing them click into gear.
It all starts with their defence though, particularly on the edges.
St George-Illawarra Dragons @ Sydney Roosters (4:05pm)
The Dragons are four-and-three heading into NRL Round 8 and appear to have figured out what works for them in attack under new Head Coach Shane Flanagan.
The Roosters are three-and-four heading into NRL Round 8 and it appears Trent Robinson is still deciding which players best fit what positions.
Rugby league math has crunched the numbers and its Easts who will start as firm favourites in this one…
Luke Keary’s touches per game almost doubled with Sam Walker sidelined but the Chooks managed just 17 points in attack on average during that time. Joseph Sua’a’li’i is an Origin prospect on the wing but reverts back to centre for this one. Brandon Smith, Victor Radley and Connor Watson form a daunting middle rotation but we’re yet to see this trio find their ceiling on the field.
I’ve missed a bit of footy over the last few weeks so I’ve got more questions than answers coming into this game, most of them around the makeup of Easts spine and backline.
It profiles as an entertaining and interesting watch; the Dragons have less quality on paper but are playing confident within their systems while the Roosters are stacked with talent but are still searching for a winning formula.
Given how often we harp on about combinations and cohesion here at RLWriters, I think this one will be closer than the market suggests.
South Sydney Rabbitohs @ Melbourne Storm (7:50pm)
Currently leaking an NRL-high 32.7 points per game on average, the South Sydney Rabbitohs middle defence (or lack thereof) has been a major reason for their slow start to the regular season.
Spending a lot of time working off their own line and defending errors, Souths forward rotation is consistently playing under fatigue and pressure around the ruck. I took a deep dive into these issues on The Roar League Podcast a few weeks ago so go give that a listen if you’re interested in the ex’s and oh’s…
In reference to this Thursday’s matchup however, all the evidence points towards an impending masterclass from Melbourne Storm hooker Harry Grant.
We saw what Jeremy Marshall-King did to a tiring Eels pack in NRL Round 7 and I’m anticipating a similar performance from Grant on Thursday night. No dummy-half in the NRL can manipulate markers and expose tiring ruck defenders like Grant can, and no team in the NRL is as fragile through the middle as South Sydney right now.
The points might be scored out wide but it’s how the Rabbitohs markers and A, B & C defenders handle Grant’s time on the ball that will determine how the scoreboard reads in this one.
ICYMI: Neds NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast
I pulled up lame from the wedding/honeymoon period but played through injury this week to preview NRL Round 8 on the Neds NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast.
This week, Jharal Yow-Yeh and I discussed how Canberra will manage without Jamal Fogarty, the little things Reece Walsh is doing off the ball and the fallout of Kalyn Ponga’s injury in Newcastle.
Speaking of Newcastle…
Knights going back to basics
The Newcastle Knights played out an absolute shocker in NRL Round 7.
Up against a Bulldogs side that played 75+ minutes with just two genuine props, all the Knights needed to do was work to the kick and wait for fatigue to take its toll on Canterbury’s middle late in both halves. Instead, they threw 10 offloads, completed at 73% and made 12 errors on their way to a heavy 36-12 defeat.
Kalyn Ponga’s latest injury is a major setback that should see the Knights revert to the basics this week. It might not be such a bad thing right now.
Newcastle’s opponents on Sunday – The Dolphins – are a nice and recent example of a team getting the little things right before wrack up the points late in games.
In typical Wayne Bennett fashion, Redcliffe miss the third least tackles per game, concede the third least penalties on average and cough up the least errors each week in the NRL. Without shooting themselves in the foot, the likes of Marshall-King and Isaiya Katoa are earning enough chances to positively influence the result in attack.
Newcastle have the pack to remain competitive in yardage and the experience in the spine to play smarter – if not a little less expansive – while Ponga is sidelined. How quickly and effectively they make these adjustments is what I’m looking out for.
Nicho Hynes involvements
NRL SuperCoaches haven’t enjoyed it but the Cronulla Sharks attack has looked much improved with Hynes in a slightly different role this season.
Thanks to the creative output of Braydon Trindall and Blayke Brailey, Hynes is no longer the be-all-and-end-all of this Cronulla attack. He’s still spending plenty of time on the ball but the Sharks have other genuine playmakers to throw the try assist pass in 2024.
With Trindall sidelined in NRL Round 8 however, Hynes’ involvements will expectedly increase which means Chevy Stewart has a job to do out the back for the Canberra Raiders on Sunday night.
He’s two games into his NRL career and hasn’t been fast-tracked into first-grade because of his defensive qualities. Still, if Stewart can organise Canberra’s numbers effectively and crowd Hynes in defence, it’ll go a long way to deciding the result in this one.