The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 19 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
Thursday Night Members Preview
The Wests Tigers have the team on paper to compete with the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks tonight, but it’s how they defend – how Jahream Bulla organises the line, in particular – that will determine whether or not they’re a chance of taking the two competition points.
Sexton lands at Bulldogs
The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs need something.
Anything…
The 66-0 hiding they copped in Round 18 rattled the decision-makers into an instant change, bringing Toby Sexton to the club on a two-year deal.
The Sexton hype train got out of hand when making his NRL debut in 2021 and winning three of his four games with the Titans. The Titans themselves bought into it and shipped Jamal Fogarty to the Canberra Raiders before quickly realising, not eight games into the 2022 season, that they needed experience in the halves and signed Kieran Foran to a two-year deal for 2023 and beyond.
Allowed to develop with consistent footy in reserve grade, Sexon has made significant improvements to his game. He’s digging into the line and manipulating the defence. Where he’d often play early without troubling the defence in 2022, he’s picking out the right players and engaging them before firing the pass.
Sexton ran for over 90 metres only three times throughout his 22 NRL games with the Titans but has averaged as much per game for the Tweed Seagulls at Queensland Cup level this year.
He is walking into a very difficult situation at the Bulldogs. A half needs a platform to play from and the Dogs are 17th in the NRL in yardage averaging only 1,525 metres per game. While the Rabbitohs are down on troops this week, they’re strong through the middle of the field and their one-out style in yardage will be difficult for the Bulldogs to contain and counter if they don’t improve on recent weeks.
Nonetheless, we should be able to learn a lot about Sexton’s development this week. Performing well at Cup level is important, but how it translates into NRL level is a different story.
ICYMI: Introducing Tom Hazelton + Bye Round Notes & RLW R19 Percentage Play
Against the Bulldogs in NRL Round 16 and again last week against the Dragons, Cronulla played to a plan in good-ball using Hazelton close to the line.
Turner Time
Paul Turner is back in the NRL, lining up at fullback for the St. George-Illawarra Dragons.
He has jumped around clubs and positions over the last four years.
With stints at the Warriors at NRL and NSW Cup level, the Gold Coast Titans and Tweed Seagulls, back to the NSW Cup with the Dragons and now NRL, he has struggled for consistency. Still, his ability as a ball runner is unquestioned. He has fast feet and is strong through contact.
His positioning in defence is a concern, though. Fitness hasn’t been his strongest area and he will be asked to cover a lot of ground on Friday night. Jamal Fogarty and Jack Wighton will ask plenty of questions with their kicking game this week.
More good NRL & NRLW reads
The demise of Twitter has made stumbling on good NRL content even more difficult so I think it’s important to share it around where possible. Here are a few things – sometimes not specifically rugby league related but lead me to rugby league thoughts – that I’ve read or listened to recently:
- ‘I had to look in the mirror’: How setback spurred Best to Origin dream
- This one’s for Hampo: Mate’s spirit driving AJ on Origin return
- THE WEEKLY: The monosyllable that pre-dates Shakespeare
- J’maine Hopgood: ‘This is pretty surreal’
Tallis Duncan through the middle
The South Sydney Rabbitohs, as they did at a wet and cold Mt Smart Stadium last week, are starting the game big with Shaq Mitchell named to start at lock.
A strong runner of the ball, Mitchell doesn’t have the passing game to replicate Cameron Murray’s role in the Bunnies side. Tallis Duncan does, though.
He fills similar spots to Murray at NSW Cup level. Duncan isn’t a big body but does take the line on inside the ten metres. If he isn’t acting as pivot on a shift, he’s the trigger and quick play-the-ball around the posts ahead of one. He has struck up a nice partnership with Dean Hawkins who is the main point of the Rabbitohs attack at Cup level.
Mitchell, Tevita Tatola and Thomas Burgess can lay the foundations for a dominant middle to start on Saturday night. Look for the Bunnies to move the ball to the edges with the introduction of Duncan who I expect to play more than the 18 minutes he did on NRL debut back in Round 13.
Flanno’s next role
Sexton’s signing with the Bulldogs has well and truly confirmed the fact Kyle Flanagan’s time as a halfback for the club is over. So, now what?
He has played seven games at NRL level this year but all have come in the halves. At NSW Cup level, Flanagan has spent the majority of his time at dummy half and looked pretty good in the position.
Reading the defensive line and identifying numbers has always seemed like a strength of his even when he’s not been able to consistently trouble it with his running game. However, it’s a strength he has been able to utilize behind the ruck and has proven especially successful in passing players over the line and crossing himself.
Flanagan is a decent enough to defender to spend time in the middle. However, with too many small defenders on the field at once an issue for the Bulldogs in recent weeks, the assumption is that he spells Reed Mahoney at some stage during the match.
Trying to make sense of Freddy’s Blues
Given Oscar is the resident Blues fan here, I have typically taken on the Maroons angle for State of Origin.
Queensland is boring right now, though. The series is wrapped up and their team list for Game 3 barely rates a mention alongside the 17 Freddy Fittler has named for New South Wales.
We will start with Bradman Best.
Naturally, ‘Kotoni Staggs is playing well’ translates on Twitter into ‘Bradman Best is rubbish, he shouldn’t have been selected.’
That is far from the case. Like Staggs, Best is playing career-best football. He’s back to skittling defenders and has improved the more he has Kalyn Ponga playing inside him. However, Staggs is playing better now than he was when selected for Game 1 last year. He has scored three more tries and handed out the same number of try assists (4) in 17 games as he did in 23 games last season. While his tackle efficiency (80%) is lower than Best’s (88%), you need to be in position to make tackles to miss them and Staggs has looked like the more solid defender of the two.
Numbers and form aside, picking Staggs based on hype when he wasn’t ready last year, dropping him, and not selecting him now that he’s performing well is strange and somewhat sums up Fittler’s time in charge at the Blues. In stark contrast to Queensland, there is no contingency plan with his selections.
Perhaps Fittler really is using the Best selection to plan for the future this time?
Cody Walker…
He deserves to be there on form but should have been there for Game 1 if he’s the best available five-eighth at the moment. Nicho Hynes deserved a spot but didn’t fit in the makeup of the squad for the opener. Fittler crowbarred him in anyway but with another utility spot up for grabs in Game 3, Clint Gutherson and the one position he can reliably cover has been named on the bench. Matt Burton, after two games as 18th man, is nowhere to be seen. Strange.
Stefano Utoikamanu has been part of the plans for a couple of years but wasn’t given a chance on debut in Game 2 and has lost his place to a recalled Jacob Saifiti… Utoikamanu appeared to be a rare case of selection for the future but that is obviously not the case.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard has played exceptionally well to take Junior Paulo’s spot in a justifiable change. Payne Haas isn’t available allowing the reliable Jake Trbojevic to return to the fold. Keaon Koloamatagi should have been there from the start.
I liked the balance of the Blues side for Game 2 but didn’t foresee Damien Cook playing in the centres. For Game 3, I’m excited to see Best and Koloamatangi out there and Walker is always good to watch. The balance is again better than Game 1 but the vision and plan for the future is anybody’s guess.