It’s the NRL comedown round. The highs of Magic Round are behind us and for those that attended, the effects are just starting to wear off. Now we look ahead to Round 11 with Jake Arthur returning, the Cowboys and Dragons bouncing around, Joseph Sua’ali’i struggling and Kalyn Ponga at five-eighth.
Thursday Night Members Memo
Sua’ali’i Struggling
I don’t think the rumours around the Sydney Roosters considering an early release for Joseph Sua’ali’i even needs a response. It makes no sense from a salary cap or on-field perspective so I’m not reading anything into it.
His form, however, is down on last year and worth exploring further.
He’s moved into the centres where I thought we might see him take early ball and be put one-on-one with his opposite fairly regularly. The 19-year-old looks like a prime ball carrier on a long shift out of yardage. Just as the Roosters cross halfway and look to move the ball and fire a shot, you could do a lot worse than firing the ball wide to Sua’ali’i with room to move.
That hasn’t been the case, though.
Sua’ali’i is averaging 113 running metres per game but made only 33 against the Cowboys in Round 10. He’s seeing the ball 16.1 times per game but hasn’t broken the line since Round 5 and has done so only three times all season. With only two tackle breaks in his last three games, the hard-running and brutal-with-the-ball Sua’ali’i from last season – albeit in a different position – has been absent to start this one.
Surely, if there is a week to simply feed him the ball and let him eat, it’s with Tyrone Peachey opposite him.
Assuming the Roosters line up the same as they did in Round 10 with Billy Smith on the left edge, Sua’ali’i will have the diminutive Peachey in front of him. Peachey missed five tackles in 71 minutes last week and another four in the week prior. He’s not the quickest to move laterally and is there to be beaten in contact.
Sua’ali’i is 19 years old. It’s not time to worry and it’s not at all a surprise to see a young player struggle to keep up such a high standard in their second year. Still, the Roosters are struggling and while he’s not the reason behind it overall, Sua’ali’i captures the underwhelming start to their season.
I expect a better showing on Friday night.
Arthur Returns
Jake Arthur has played 21 games throughout his NRL career.
For a 20-year-old still to cement a spot in first grade, he has been grossly over-criticised up to this point.
He hasn’t even needed to take the field to cop it at times.
This week he takes the place of Mitchell Moses who has been forced to sit out after suffering a head knock at Magic Round. It’s the first game he has played at NRL level since the 2022 Grand Final.
In the meantime, Arthur has been performing especially well in an inconsistent Parramatta Eels NSW Cup outfit.
Throughout his ten games this season Arthur has scored three tries, handed out 11 try assists and nine linebreak assists, thrown nine offloads and forced five dropouts. Only Ronald Volkman has kicked for more total metres than Arthur’s 2,972.
While Arthur has popped up over the last two years, he only started in three of the 14 games he featured last season. He’s played a lot of footy since his last start in Round 22 so it will be interesting to see how much his development translates at NRL level.
His running game has never been in question. Arthur is big for a halfback. At 188cm and 82kg with handy footwork, he’s a constant running threat on the edges.
It’s his kicking game that I expect to see him excel, though.
Arthur has a decent long kicking game but can have a positive impact closer to the line on Saturday night.
He has the ball on a string at times and will be kicking in behind a Canberra Raiders defensive line with Seb Kris at the back.
Kris is improving as a fullback. He has already gone far beyond what I thought he was capable of and deserves to hold the spot over Xavier Savage for the time being. Still, it’s a position that takes a long time to develop defensively and it’s in his positioning that Arthur can find success.
We don’t get to see a lot of a fullbacks movement until it’s too late watching on TV (bring back eagle cam, Kayo). However, with the vision available to the clubs and a week to look through it all, I won’t be surprised to see Arthur and the Eels roll a few in early.
Cowboys & Dragons Bouncing Around
The North Queensland Cowboys bounced back from a horror start to the season to convincingly beat the Sydney Roosters 20-6 last week.
The St. George Illawarra Dragons, on the other hand, desperately need to bounce back following five consecutive defeats – their last against the 17th-placed Wests Tigers.
Corey Rosser at NRL.com highlighted the historic nature of the Dragons losing streak:
“With five-straight losses to their name by a combined margin of just 13 points, the 2023 Dragons have attached their name to an unwanted piece of history.
Not since the 1927 Premiership season – which saw Balmain lose five on the trot by a combined margin of 11 points – has team been so close on the scoreboard through a five-match winless run.”
For the Cowboys, it’s important that they hold up defensively. They achieved their surprise rise up the ladder last season by playing as one of the best defensive teams in the NRL. At this point in 2022, the Cowboys were conceding 12.5 points per game. They’re out to conceding 21.9 points per game to start 2023.
While Scott Drinkwater and the Cowboys attack are capable of scoring points, they did so last year after doing the hard work early. Their attack thrived on the back of their defence and the fatigue that the grind put into the opposition. North Queensland averaged 26.3 points per game last season to be one of the best attacking teams in the NRL. This year, their 16.5 points per game ranks 16th…
It starts in defence, and that’s where the Cowboys need to start developing their consistency. There is too much attacking talent in the 17 for points not to follow.
Meanwhile, the Dragons are a middling team struggling late.
They were always unlikely to challenge for the Top 8 this season but are better than their current place as 16th on the NRL ladder.
These attacking numbers aren’t those of a team running second-last.
The yardage is a concern, but even without getting up the field the Dragons are breaking the line exceptionally well and proving difficult to take down and contain in the tackle.
Defensively, however, the Dragons are letting themselves down.
In contrast, how they defend yardage is promising. Net yardage is often a fairly decent indicator of a football team and to be roughly even suggests the Dragons are underperforming at this point.
They’re missing a lot of tackles which lead to line breaks and are allowing the opposition to throw too many offloads. Again, a likely cause of line breaks.
If they can maintain the level they’re playing through the middle defensively and find some stick in their tackles, the linebreaks will dry up. From there, they can start to focus more on their attack which, as the numbers suggest, isn’t scoring at the rate it perhaps should.
The Dragons don’t look so bad on paper, but the game is played on grass. It’s out there in the middle where we need to see an improvement.
Ponga at #6
There is no doubting what Kalyn Ponga can do with the ball. Whether it be from fullback or five-eighth, he’s capable of ripping through any defence on any day.
From the limited attacking action we’ve seen from the Newcastle Knights in his time at five-eighth, he covers a lot of the same areas. He searches down short sides, swings to the second layer of a shift or takes possession at first receiver on the left edge. Given time to develop more of a partnership with Jackson Hastings, it won’t be long before we see him produce consistently with the ball.
It’s in defence where the concerns lay.
The Knights were poor against the Parramatta Eels in Round 9. Their defence struggled across the field and never gave them a chance to play themselves into the match like they had been in the rounds leading up.
Given who he is and the price tag that accompanies his name, Ponga was made the major target post-game.
He struggled in defence. There is no sugarcoating it. In a new position and with Mitchell Moses circling him in the line, Ponga was left wanting too often. Perhaps overeager, he ended up in front of his line which can not only isolate him, but opens up opportunities for the attack to beat those around him.
Bryce Cartwright laid on a beauty for Moses and Clint Gutherson to link up to score.
Getting the centre and backrower into the tackle, the Eels forced Phoenix Crossland to fill up on the short side. Cartwright makes Ponga his target, though. Skipping to Crossland’s outside shoulder holds Ponga up ever so slightly and the quickest halfback in the game is able to take the space.
Moses might be the only half in the comp that can beat Ponga so easily in that position.
Nonetheless, it goes a long way to summing up Ponga’s first full game in the #6 jersey.
“My second game back it’s definitely a learning experience (but) I’m not going to let that performance eat me up, I’m going to look at it, learn from it,” Ponga said after the match.
“I’m probably going to work in the break because I want to be better than what I was tonight.
“I’ve just moved to six, it’s a journey, it’s an experience and I want to be better. But I’ve got to own my performance and I wasn’t good enough.”
I’m looking out for the improvements he’s made during the week off. Defensively, in particular.
Quick NRL Notes
– We’ve been here before with Cory Paix. The Broncos played their best football with him on the field last year and are doing so again in this one. Still, his minutes are fairly low…
– Rocco Berry is back after scoring a double for the Warriors Cup side last week. Keen.
– Junior Tupou has impressed this season. He seems to have locked down a spot on the wing and has a long future in the NRL if he can clean up the uglier errors.
– Xavier Savage out and Albert Hopate in – surprising.
– Jayden Campbell extended his time with the Gold Coast Titans this week. I still don’t know what his best position is and am somewhat surprised he committed so early.
– Josh Schuster is in the 22. All eyes will be on him if he’s called into the 17 on Sunday.
– Teig Wilton averaged 77 running metres per game in 2022 and has pushed that figure out to 131 running metres per game in 2023. Where and when are they coming?