The NRL Preview Notepad helps you get ready for Round 26 with talking points, players to watch and trends to follow every week.
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There isn’t always much riding on games a this time of the year but the Penrith Panthers are still playing for the minor premiership while the Parramatta Eels will no doubt be desperate to finish their NRL season with a win.
Anticipating a better Sam Walker
The Sydney Roosters are finally playing the sort of football most people expected heading into the 2023 NRL season. It’s taken the best part of 20 rounds to get there; they’ve won four of their last five to be a chance of playing finals football. Still, it could all be too little too late if they can’t get past the Wests Tigers on Saturday evening.
On a three-game winning streak and with their performances better now than at any other point of the season, many have already questioned Trent Robinson’s recall of young half, Sam Walker. The Chooks have been winning Drew Hutchison at halfback. He has been serviceable and provided the quality the team needed to get back on track. However, the Roosters ceiling is much, much higher with Walker in the squad.
The 21-year-old hasn’t been at his best this season. His two try assists in six games are a far cry from the 19 and 16 he managed in 21 and 25 games throughout the first two years of his career.
The Roosters haven’t been their best overall either, though.
Now, Walker is walking into an improved side. Sydney’s 1,577 running metres per game up to their Round 19 bye would have them ranked 15th in the NRL right now had it held. While only up to 13th overall for the season, their 1,712 metres per game across their last seven is good for 8th.
They’re pushing up in support around the ball more and running more decoys as a result. The Roosters combined for only 83 decoys and supports per game throughout their first 16 but have pushed that up to 98 per game in their last six.
Better in yardage and asking more questions of the defence, the Roosters can put this team stacked with attacking potential in positions to pile up points.
There aren’t many good examples from earlier in the season, but this Jaxson Paulo try is the sort of good ball set I expect to see more of with Walker back out there.
It starts with two clunky actions. The first is somewhat dangerous and forces Jahrome Hughes into a quick decision; one he barely executes in time with Joey Manu close to finding himself in a four v two scenario. While clunky again, Lindsay Collins gets the Roosters back to the posts and does so with a dominant carry and quick play-the-ball.
Christian Welch is a little bit slow out of the tackle giving the Roosters a look at a 6:5 split. Importantly, they have shape on both sides. Where you might be able to lean towards the Luke Keary and James Tedesco/Manu side with Hutchison out there, Walker can make plays on his own.
Brandon Smith’s work out of dummy half is particularly important here. He jumps out and engages the A and B defenders with a lead runner which stresses the Storm’s edge and causes Justin Olam to jam in.
The Papuan is a split second away from crunching Walker in a highlight reel tackle, but that one step Walker is allowed to take is enough to throw a floater over the second jamming defender and into the hands of his winger.
The reverse angle sums up Smith’s work best. You could say Walker may have been better to his Nat Butcher short, but with the speed and angle Olam is coming at him, he’s made the right decision.
These are the plays the Roosters can manufacture with Walker, and they’re the plays Walker can ice if this improved Roosters outfit provides him with enough opportunities.
Retaining Hutchison and claiming a winning formula would have been the easy road for Robinson. That road doesn’t end with a premiership, though. While unlikely, getting Walker involved increases their chances of righting all of the wrongs of a frustrating season. At the very worst, it begins the process of building into the 2024 NRL season.
Walker won’t be all that rusty. He’s played two 80-minute games for the North Sydney Bears since returning from injury and dished out two try assists in both of them.
With it all on the line this week, I’m looking forward to seeing how Walker responds to the pressure and how the pieces fall together around him.
Raiders left edge
The Canberra Raiders need a win to secure their place in the NRL finals this week. Unfortunately, there might not be a worse team for them to play right now.
Not only are the Brisbane Broncos on fire, they’re coming off a bye and profile as a team that dominates in all of the wrong areas if you’re the Raiders.
Defensively, the Broncos have conceded just 17 points per game this season and allowed only eight tries through the middle. The Raiders, on the other hand, average only 21 points per game for 12th in the NRL. They look to crash around the ruck and score through the middle. As Brisbane’s form has shown this year, trying to bash the door down might not be the best approach to attacking their defence.
With the ball, the Broncos are lightning.
Reece Walsh is the speedster, but they move fast in general. They take the line on and shift the ball quickly.
I highlighted this Payne Haas pass a couple of weeks ago.
It’s noteworthy again now because of how well the Broncos compress the middle, and some of the decisions the Raiders left edge defence has made throughout the year.
You can quite easily picture Hass and Patrick Carrigan linking up through the middle with Walsh’s acceleration out the back stressing the edge here.
Jarrod Croker is on his heels buying time for himself and those inside him but Albert Hopoate tries to solve it himself and concedes on the outside.
Just last week the Bulldogs crashed to the middle to bring Raiders defenders around the ruck. With a lead on Croker’s inside shoulder, the Raiders centre bites and Hopoate follows him in as he should, but not before bouncing out in a move that puts him a step behind in closing down Matt Burton.
The pair don’t often look on the same page and the Broncos are going to ask a lot of questions down the right edge on Saturday night. While they’ve proven time and time again this season that they can win games from tough situations, it’s going to take a big effort from the Raiders defence – especially down this left edge – if they’re to cause an upset in this one.
ICYMI: The making of David Fifita’s try
“While it worked to perfection this time, the worst case is Fifita running straight at a halfback with the line in sight. Cleary is a good defender for a halfback, but he would struggle to stop Fifita from pushing through the tackle far enough to score this close to the line.”
Chan Kum Tong
The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles are out of the race for the finals and have an eye on the 2024 NRL season already.
Josh Schuster won’t be involved this week. He’s an incredible talent and one I think is better suited to the edge, but he’s not shown enough in recent weeks to hold his spot in the 17. Instead, Anthony Seibold is seeing what he has got to work with next year and handing Gordon Chan Kum Tong an NRL debut.
He’s destined for cult hero status given his name. His name alone has put him in the spotlight coming up through the grades and is one many fans will have heard of already. What might be a surprise to some when he does get onto the field on Sunday is his size.
Chan Kum Tong is small. He doesn’t fit the mould of a typical footballer. However, he’s quick and uses his size well to be powerful low to the ground.
No team allows more tries through the middle than the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs. If they give up any space around the ruck on the line, Chan Kum Tong will look to burrow over.
It hasn’t been uncommon for the 21-year-old to spend time as a ball player from first receiver, too. Again using his speed well here, he spots the space around the ruck, engages the A defender and turns the ball back inside to lay on a try.
I’m surprised to see him being given his debut this season. Nonetheless, Chan Kum Tong can cause some problems for this Bulldogs defence. It’s in his own defence that I’ll be keeping a close eye, though.