Whether you’re searching for an edge in the workplace tipping comp or just desperate to talk some footy, you’ve found the place. Join Oscar Pannifex as he unpacks the scrum each week in the NRL.
Profiling the new-look Wests Tigers
It’s not the match I thought I’d be previewing in Round 1 but the Wests Tigers v Gold Coast Titans game on Sunday afternoon is profiling as a goldmine of rugby league content.
Both clubs will debut key players in key positions which means there’s plenty we can both predict and learn from this game. I’m going to leave the Titans for another day (sorry, Gold Coast fans) and instead zero in on what we can expect from the Wests Tigers in Round 1.
The opening stages of the Tigers v Raiders pre-season trial was a good indication of how Wests might try to use the footy in 2023. There was a clear plan to move the ball across the park before switching back against the grain in both yardage and good ball – something that incoming hooker Api Koroisau can orchestrate effectively from dummy half.
This action was promising:
The presence of Klemmer and Papali’i on the left edge drags defenders one way before Brandon Wakeham turns Papali’i back under against the grain. Papali’i hurriedly throws a premeditated pass back behind the ruck for Daine Laurie who’s waiting in an acre of space. The timing is a little off and Laurie is flat-footed when he takes possession here, but the idea is a right. At the very least, Laurie wins a quick play-the-ball against a disrupted defensive line and Wests go straight on the attack.
Without knocking Jake Simpkin, actions like this will only look better with Koroisau at dummy half. His ability to hold up markers and engage ruck defenders lends itself to the frequent changes in direction that Wests played with in this game, and I’m expecting these passages to be a feature of the Tigers attack on Sunday.
The involvements of Klemmer were also noticeable in that trial.
The big prop registered 22 receipts against Canberra and with those receipts he produced 12 passes to become an active link man through the middle of the field. It was a little clunky in some instances but is clearly something the Tigers have worked on over the offseason.
In this instance Joe Ofahengaue tips to his prop partner who produces a neat catch-and-pass despite the defensive pressure. The presence of Ofahengaue and Klemmer on the ball has compressed the Raiders line and when Klemmer throws it out the back the Tigers suddenly find themselves in space. Papali’i takes advantage of the sliding defensive line to poke his nose through as the Raiders scramble to reset on their line.
Another clever switch play follows when Wakeham comes back down the short side with a three-on-two situation. Unfortunately, the pass needed to go to Brent Naden here but instead, it’s Papali’i who takes possession under pressure and puts in a poor kick on the last.
Execution let the Tigers down in this instance but the intent to promote the ball and move the defence with changes of direction is promising. It’s also evidence of a plan designed to complement Koroisau’s skillset from dummy half and we get our first look at it on Sunday.
Klemmer’s involvements are also worth watching over the next few weeks. I’m all for adding a pass to his game but I’m not convinced that Klemmer is the best man for the job when it comes to distributing through the middle. He had his moments, but it wasn’t until Will Smith entered the fray at lock that the Tigers attack really clicked into gear against the Raiders.
This was one of the better-executed tries we saw across Round 2 of the trials.
After hitting the right edge through Adam Doueihi and Tommy Talau one tackle earlier, Wests quickly go coast-to-coast through Doueihi and Smith in the middle of the field. Smith’s tempo-changing run here is right out of the Nathan Cleary playbook; he engages four Raiders defenders as he shows back on his inside, fakes to bring Papali’i onto the ball and then finally spins it wide to his halfback. Wakeham smartly shovels it on to Naden who puts a move on his opposite man and creates the overlap in the corner – try time.
I’m surprised Smith didn’t make the cut this week. He mightn’t be the long-term answer to that ball-playing middle role but he’s a better option than Klemmer or Ofahengaue right now. I’m interested to see how Wests forward rotation plays out on Sunday and where Smith might be able to squeeze himself into the side.
I’m a little more confident in how Tommy Talau can impact the Tigers this year.
He’s had a wretched run with injuries but can make the right centre position his own this year thanks to a budding combination with Doueihi at five-eighth. He runs a great hard unders line on that right edge which netted himself a try and set up another in Wests 36-4 rout of Canberra last week.
In the Raiders defence, they were a man down when Talau poured through this yawning gap but we can still credit Doueihi and Talau for the scoring action.
This is Doueihi in his element. Taking possession wide of the ruck gives him the option to crank off his outside foot and run himself, or he can hold it up and wait for the defence to make a wrong move. On this occasion, three Raiders defenders are stuck in the mud with five Tigers coming at them and Doueihi picks the right pass to send Talau over untouched.
The variation Wests produced on this edge later in the piece was even better. They set up smartly with a play-the-ball on the left post and Klemmer lurking one-off the ruck to invite the Raiders to compress.
As the ball comes wide through Wakeham and Doueihi, Canberra start to slide but are held up by a very convincing decoy line from Talau. A well-timed pass from Doueihi capitalises on Talau’s decoy to get Shawn Blore in a two-on-one situation on the edge, and the big forward nails his involvement to pop a lovely ball up for Charlie Staines to finish in the corner.
The Penrith Panthers have made this shape look easy for a few years now but there are only a few teams in the competition who can execute it in game scenario like this. Staines doesn’t score without the involvements of Talau and Blore here and I’m looking out for more on Sunday.
We’ve heard all about the extra ball work Tim Sheens and his coaching staff have incorporated into Wests offseason preparation and we saw the fruits of that labour in this trial. They won’t be able to throw 18 offloads and 276 passes while maintaining an 86% completion rate every week, but there were clear signs of a plan in attack which is already an improvement on the Tigers of 2022.
Head Noise – What’s living rent-free in my head this week?
I’m jotting down whatever is ringing around my head each week in the NRL to try and keep the head noise at bay.
Levi, Starling and… Woolford? – As someone who was relatively high on Zac Woolford last season, I’m a little apprehensive about Ricky Stuart’s hooking rotation for Round 1. Danny Levi and Tom Starling bring similar strengths and weaknesses to the dummy-half position and I think Canberra might miss the subtleties of Woolford’s ballplaying and game management on Saturday night. He had an immediate impact on the Raiders form last year and I’m backing him to win back that starting No.9 jersey before too long.
Ponga defending in the line – Kalyn Ponga has the attacking skillset to flourish in the five-eighth position but it’s his defence I’m looking out for this week. The Eels tested him a few times with repeat efforts in the preseason trial and if I noticed it from the couch at home then I’ll bet the Warriors coaching staff did, too.
In this instance, some second-phase play scrambles Newcastle’s defensive line and creates an opportunity on the following play. Ponga is late to retreat down the short side and Mitch Moses picks him out in the line to break into the backfield. This wasn’t all Ponga’s fault but it’s a good example of where he might need time to adjust to defending in the line. I’m watching his repeat defensive efforts closely this week.
Cobbo at fullback – Jharal Yow-Yeh tipped it on the Neds NRL Punting Podcast this week and I’m backing him up. If there’s to be a boilover in Round 1 it could come in the form of a Selwyn Cobbo-inspired Broncos upset over the defending premiers. He’s a terrifying ball carrier and can turn this game on its head with the #1 on his back if he wants to. Not sure I’ll take the $4.50 on offer for a Brisbane win but I’ll be watching Cobbo’s involvements closely.
Isaiya Katoa & Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – I’m very excited at the thought of Katoa and Tabuai-Fidow linking up around the ruck for the Dolphins this year.
If the trials are anything to go by, Wayne Bennett has spent a bit of time planning for actions like this over the offseason. There were multiple Dolphins in the frame whenever Katoa bounced off his outside foot and looked to challenge the ruck area, and I’m tipping Tabuai-Fidow to be the main beneficiary given his talents as a support player.
RLW Percentage Plays
While RLW content is the kind of gear you’re likely to discuss over a schooner at the pub, our premium subscribers see it for what it can really be – an edge. Not every action we notice eventuates in a winning bet slip, but with enough work we can at the very least take an educated guess – an informed punt, if you will – at where the value is each week.
I’ll be spending the first few rounds learning what I can before giving premium subscribers a few weekly tips accompanied with relevant examples and RLW-style analysis. Let’s eat!