If the beers are cold and the afternoon’s long enough, we’d be talking footy all day, every day until kickoff on Thursday night. With so much to review, let’s break down some of the key players and actions throughout each week in the NRL.
– New South Wales Blues State of Origin Preview
– There’s always next week for… Sydney Roosters
– SuperCoach Shoutouts
– Play of the Round
New South Wales Blues State of Origin Preview
The 2022 State of Origin Series kicks off this week, so with a reduced round in the NRL limiting the talking points, we’re using this spot here to preview the New South Wales Blues. Jason has the Queensland Marrons covered in the Repeat Set this week.
Team list analysis
1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Kotoni Staggs, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Payne Haas, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Tariq Sims, 13. Isaah Yeo, 14. Stephen Crichton, 15. Liam Martin, 16. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 17. Ryan Matterson
There’s some questionable selections (and omissions) in this list but overall the New South Wales Blues have selected a strong and deep squad for Game I.
Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic are huge losses but the Blues are stacked with centre talent in 2022. Jack Wighton has been named to start but it’s looking and feeling more like Stephen Crichton gets the gig – that’s good for NSW. Crichton has looked ready for Origin for 12 months now and has the benefit of an existing combination with Penrith teammates Brian To’o, Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary among others.
On the other edge, Kotoni Staggs’ defence – the one question mark we had over his validity as a rep player – has significantly improved over the last few months and it’s no coincidence that’s happened while playing in a winning team. Put good players around other good players and they’ll inevitably perform, and Staggs is well positioned to make his Origin debut this week.
Most of the pack picks itself, although I wouldn’t begrudge Manly or Souths fans for thinking Haumole Olakau’atu or Keaon Koloamatangi deserved selection over Tariq Sims in the backrow. There’s also the argument that a side missing Dale Finucane could really use a guy like Jake Trbojevic, but with the two best locks in the game already in the squad the Blues have good depth through the middle.
The other major talking point is the absence of Josh Addo-Carr. If we focus on the positives, Brad Fittler now has two of the best yardage wingers in the game to get the Blues out their own end. He’s also got a guy in Daniel Tupou who Cleary can target in the air with his boot. Tupou won’t let anyone down in Game I.
Damien Cook is rightly the first choice at hooker but I like Api Koroisau’s selection in the squad. Both hookers allow New South Wales to play a very different style – a power/momentum game through the middle with Cook whereas Koroisau is a guy who can orchestrate points on the line by isolating big forwards – think Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Payne Haas – onto smaller defenders. I won’t be surprised to see both hookers get some minutes in this series – particularly if the Game I game plan doesn’t work out.
The rest of the spine picks itself. James Tedesco was never going to be replaced at fullback while Isaah Yeo, Cleary and Luai give the Blues the best clubland-to-Origin combination since Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk.
If there’s question marks anywhere in this squad it’s in the backrow.
Cameron Murray is elite but he’s not a strike edge forward while Sims has started in the backrow for St. George-Illawarra just six times this season. They both offer different qualities on the edges and I’ve got a theory as to how Freddy might use them on Wednesday night.
Predicted Profile
New South Wales primarily used their edge forwards as decoy runners in last year’s series.
With Mitchell and Trbojevic demanding possession in attack outside of them, Sims’ and Murray’s main job was to hold up the defence and create space for their strike centres.
Like everything else he does, Murray’s hole running is precise and he’s a genuine option for Cleary here as he scans the defence. Tedesco lurking out the back of Murray’s perfect decoy line is all too much for Queensland who jam in, leaving Trbojevic a clear passage to the try line.
Staggs and Crichton are attacking threats in their own rights and while I think we’ll see Cleary give Staggs in particular plenty of early ball in Game I, I’m looking for NSW to use their backrowers a little differently this time around.
Murray has one of the quickest play-the-balls in the competition and I think New South Wales might use that ruck speed to trigger short side raids. This example from last year’s series is a little more opportunistic than what I’m talking about, but the principle is the same.
A nice face ball from Cleary gets Liam Martin at Cameron Munster’s outside shoulder and invites Kurt Capewell (centre) into the tackle. That strips the short side for numbers and forces David Fifita (backrower) to fill in at centre on the following play. With a quick play-the-ball, Tedesco jumps out from dummy-half and wins the favourable matchup against Fifita to put Addo-Carr over in the corner.
This is an action Murray can trigger as well as any backrower in the comp.
Cleary is elite at pitching his forwards into favourable areas in the defensive line which will allow Murray to find his front and play the ball quickly. From there, the Blues have the ballplayers – Tedesco or Cleary – to orchestrate a short side shot and strike outside backs – Staggs and To’o – who are awfully hard to stop this close to the line.
Blind-side trick shots aside, I think we’re going to see much of the same in 2022.
They dominated last year’s series with a power game through the middle and Freddy’s squad looks well equipped to replicate this in 2022. They’ve got ballplayers who love playing over the ad line (Yeo, Cleary, Tedesco), a dummy-half who can run (Cook) and forwards who can generate ruck speed and/or second phase play:
New South Wales planning on throwing a few offloads in Game I is either the biggest wool-pull of the series or the worst kept secret in rugby league. Ryan Matterson, Paulo, Haas, Murray, Yeo and Tedesco are all good for an offload, while Cook and Tedesco himself are two guys perfectly equipped to capitalise on some second-phase play around the ruck.
We’re used to seeing teams shift it quickly from an offload but I won’t be surprised if New South Wales persist with searching around the ruck if they can promote the ball in the tackle.
This action has Origin written all over it. A half playing deep into the line, wearing a shot and finding the space back in behind the ruck is an action I think Cleary and Tedesco might have some joy with in this series. The Roosters put this together following a quick play-the-ball but there’s potential for this to work on the back of a late offload, too.
Where it will be won
We aren’t going to see a blowout score like we did in Game I last year.
Billy Slater has picked a far better squad than Paul Green did (or was afforded to do) last year while the absence of Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell significantly levels the playing field in 2022. That pair combined for eight tries and three assists last series – 11 try involvements in three games of footy. New South Wales have chosen some fair replacements but there’s no replicating that kind of attacking output.
In what’s likely to be a grittier contest, I think Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary can be the difference for the Blues in Game I. It’s no coincidence that the only game the Blues lost last year was with Cleary on the sidelines. He’s the best halfback in the NRL and Yeo is a guy who can get him the ball exactly when and where he likes it most.
Cleary’s ability to build and absorb pressure with his kicking game is unrivaled.
Daly Cherry-Evans is in some rarefied form with the boot right now but Cleary’s long- and short-kicking game is first-class. Coupled with a forward pack that looks well equipped to win the territory battle and generate some second-phase play, Cleary should be kicking from good positions on Wednesday night. If he’s kicking long expect him to turn Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates around and in good ball he can force repeat sets or kick to Crichton or Tupou on the edges.
It’s death by a thousand cuts with the Penrith halfback and I’m expecting him to do the same for the Blues on Wednesday night. On the back of Cleary’s kicking game and Yeo’s distribution through the middle the Blues will get their share of attacking opportunities in Game I, and even without ‘Trell and Turbo they should have enough strike to make it count.
There’s Always Next Week For…
… the Sydney Roosters
The Roosters really could have used Jared Waerea-Hargreaves in a game like this.
Whenever Easts have been down on troops in the last 24 months, Waerea-Hargreaves is the guy they’ve turned to. His work on both sides of the ball is so influential to how the Roosters play and in a side already missing it’s Origin reps on Sunday, Waerea-Hargreaves absence felt like the straw that broke the camel’s back.
That’s not to say Easts weren’t competitive.
Playing against a resurgent Raiders side led again by Joseph Tapine (20 runs, 209 metres, 33 tackles), the Roosters won the yardage battle, made more linebreaks and missed fewer tackles than their opposition but couldn’t convert their opportunities in attack.
The ten penalties conceded certainly didn’t help either, as the Roosters ran out of answers against a Canberra side playing at home.
Special mention to Joey Manu who was my feature last week. The fill-in fullback took an absurd 33 runs for 288 running metres to set up a try, bust 14 tackles, throw seven offloads and make just one error in an enormous 80 minute performance that almost dragged the Roosters to a result.
SuperCoach Shout-outs
We’re keeping an eye on a few players in our rolling SC watchlist as part of my ‘Heads In!’ weekly review, but this segment is reserved for any special mentions from the round that was. You’re clever enough to find the top scorers yourself, so this is for anything I liked, noticed or want to see again.
Joseph Manu – CTW & FLB – $634,400 – It’s only a matter of time until Manu makes a permanent transition to fullback. Took 33 runs as he almost single-handedly won the game for the Roosters. A dead set freak.
