Unpack a scrum of three talking points before every round of the NRL season. In his feature this week, Oscar looks ahead at State of Origin, Game II.
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Centre-Field Scrum – What’s centre frame in the Rugby League lens this week?
State of Origin, Game II
With Jason casting an eye over the three International fixtures booked for this Saturday, I’m looking ahead to Sunday’s State of Origin Game II and where it can be won for both sides. There’s a host of changes from Game I to consider and a few hints as to the game plans we can expect on Sunday, so let’s dive right in.
New South Wales Blues
Squad analysis
Looking to replicate the impact of Harry Grant off Queensland’s bench, Brad Fittler has brought in Api Koroisau at hooker and shifted Damien Cook to the pine for Game II. Most people seem to agree that a dual-hooker approach is the way to go for Origin right now, but whether Cook or Koroisau should start is a little more contested.
At first glance, Cook profiles better as a guy to take the sting out of the game early (à la Ben Hunt) while Koroisau is better equipped to come on and wreck havoc around some tired defenders (à la Grant). Yes, Cook is a dynamic running hooker, but simply running the ball from dummy-half isn’t where Grant – and the Maroons – have enjoyed success at Origin level. Instead, it’s been Grant’s ability to isolate defenders in the line and bring teammates onto the ball that has given Queensland an advantage in recent games.
That’s not something Cook does naturally. He can run it himself but Cook’s skillset doesn’t lend itself to generating ruck speed or passing forwards into space at the line. Cook is more reliant on teammates getting quick play-the-balls to bring him into the game.
Koroisau, on the other hand, offers a little more craft and ballplaying from behind the ruck.
Koroisau’s smarts and creativity seems to be the perfect fit for an impact stint off the bench, but instead Freddy has gone the other way.
The advantage of starting with Koroisau is that it allows New South Wales to get the most out of their Penrith combinations in attack. Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary are the Blues’ best weapons again in Game II and now they’ve got a guy who knows exactly how, when and where they like the footy. That’s good for New South Wales.
That does raise another question, though – if you’ve brought in a ballplaying hooker then why swap out your big-bodied middles? You won’t hear me arguing about Jake Trbojevic’s inclusion, but do the Blues really need another ballplaying middle with Koroisau and Yeo out there on Sunday?
Freddy picked a pack in Game I that profiled well to bash through the middle but instead, it was New South Wales’ outside backs who got to work in yardage. Now he’s picked a spine that can effectively target the ruck, but has moved away from big bodies who can come onto the ball. Angus Crichton and Siosifa Talakai can certainly fill that role and will at the very least provide some impact off the bench, but it’s another strange selection from Freddy that on face value doesn’t marry itself to the other changes across the side.
READ: Apisai Koroisau’s Origin Audition
Where it can be won
We’ll know from the opening few sets what approach New South Wales will take in yardage for Game II, but in good ball it’s all about Yeo and Cleary again for me on Sunday.
When the game is in the grind there’s no team better than the Penrith Panthers right now. They’ve made back-to-back grand finals by suffocating oppositions with their discipline and the kicking game of Cleary, and it’s what I’m expecting from the Blues on Sunday.
Cleary’s kicking was off in Game I.
Even by the smallest of margins Cleary didn’t kick like we know he can in the State of Origin series opener, and his performance with the boot when returning to clubland in Round 14 suggests he knew it too.
If Cleary remedies this to build pressure and win field position with his boot on Sunday, the Blues will find points. Api Koroisau can compress the middle as well as anyone and from there, Yeo, Cleary and Jarome Luai won a premiership in ’21 shifting it to the likes of Burton and Crichton out wide.
Freddy seems to have gone all in on the Penrith flavour for Game II and I think the Blues will look better for it. With Yeo and Cleary steering the ship New South Wales can beat Queensland in the grind, but execution is the challenge for the Blues – especially Cleary – in Game II.
Queensland Marrons
Squad Analysis
Billy Slater has been forced into a few changes for Game II but overall the squad is much the same.
Murray Taulagi comes in for Xavier Coates to give Queensland specialist left- and right-wingers on both flanks. Corey Oates was unlucky to miss out in my opinion, but Taulagi is an excellent prospect and has the advantage of a club combination with centre Valentine Holmes on that left edge. He’s strong in yardage and good in the air, and he also provides the Maroons with some genuine X factor on that left wing.
Considering Queensland look well equipped to search left in attack on Sunday (more on that below), Taulagi and Holmes give the Maroons two excellent try-scoring talents on an already potent left edge.
Reuben Cotter is a huge loss but the returning Jai Arrow is a handy replacement. Desperate to write over his indiscretions from last year’s series, Arrow is a guy who plays best with a chip on his shoulder and some of his better games for South Sydney have been off the bench through the middle. Lindsay Collins set the bar high as an impact bench forward in Game I but Arrow can and will do a job there in Game II.
Where it can be won
As it was in Game I, Queensland again hold an advantage with the impact Harry Grant, Pat Carrigan and Jai Arrow can have from the bench on Sunday.
If New South Wales’ game plan is to drag Queensland into the grind, then the Maroons bench is well-placed to counter that. Queensland only needs to match it with the Blues for the first 30 minutes, and so long as they are there or thereabouts, the Maroons can rely on their interchange players to change the momentum. Carrigan and Arrow offer good leg speed, can offload and will lead Queensland’s line speed in defence while Jeremiah Nanai brings a point-of-difference wherever he comes on.
The Maroons’ left edge is their ace in the hole.
We know how dangerous Kalyn Ponga is hitting short sides and the left edge is his favoured side of the field. In Murray Taulagi and Valentine Holmes, Ponga now has two genuine finishers to target with a cut-out pass down a short left side. If the Maroons find themselves chasing points late in the game, expect them to search heavily down that channel and try to double up Ponga on the edge – punch a backrower into Nathan Cleary, get a quick play-the-ball and then go again with Ponga darting out from behind the ruck late.
Head Noise – What’s living rent free in my head this week?
Nothing rattles footy fans (and players) more than when the head noise kicks in. To avoid this as best we can, I’m writing down anything ringing around my head each week and hopefully we can figure a few things out along the way.
Women’s State of Origin on Friday night
It’s yet to demand the attention or media spotlight it deserves, so if you take one thing away from this piece then let it be my recommendation to tune in on Friday night.
Having followed the NRLW’s rescheduled 2021 season earlier this year, I’ve picked out a few players from each side in the Women’s State of Origin game this week as girls who can significantly influence the result for their state.
Queensland were winners of the corresponding fixture last year, hanging on 8-6 against NSW for a classic Origin win. Tamika Upton was the talk of the town in the lead-up to that game but since then, another player has put their hand up to be considered the premier fullback in the women’s game…
New South Wales Blues – Players to Watch
Emma Tonegato – My favourite player from the NRLW ‘21 season and the one I’ll be watching most closely on Friday night. Averaged 28.6 touches in the Dragons’ last three games as she got busy in yardage and in good ball. With good acceleration and top-line speed, great footwork and strength through contact, Tonegato will be in the frame somewhere when NSW trouble the scoreboard on Friday night. She can throw the final pass out the back of shape but Tonegato is most dangerous running the ball herself. If she doesn’t break the line, the ruck speed Tonegato creates and the pressure she puts into the defensive line can be the catalyst for four points on the following play.
Isabelle Kelly & Jess Sergis – The Sky Blues boast two premiership-winning centres in their backline for this one in Roosters teammates Kelly and Sergis. Both can beat a defender one-on-one but it’s their eagerness to get involved in non-centre positions on the park (think Tom Trbojevic in that game for the Blues) that will concern Queensland the most. Kelly, in particular, was spotted popping up as a second fullback in long right-side shifts for the Roosters in the NRLW 2021 season, and it’s a play I’m looking out for in this one.
Sarah Togatuki – Brad Fittler has Siosifa Talakai to call upon if NSW need to shift the momentum, and the Sky Blues have Togatuki. The premiership-winning forward can play on the edge or through the middle and is a tackle-busting machine. The impact she can have from the bench could be a turning point if Queensland drags New South Wales into a grind as they did in 2021.
Queensland Maroons – Players to Watch
Tamika Upton – Often looked like she was in a league of her own when Upton took the field last year. Injury prevented Upton from dominating in the 2021 NRLW series and in her absence Emma Tonegato has taken the mantle of best in the competition. This is Upton’s chance to take it back. Her combination with halfback Ali Brigginshaw is key – if Brigginshaw can straighten the attack and pass Upton into positive areas on the field, Upton will turn half-chances into full ones.
Shenae Ciesiolka – The Sky Blues have some big names in the outside backs but Ciesiolka more than held her own in the 2021 NRLW season and earns a well-deserved Maroons jersey on the back of it. She’s quick and has a great right foot step that can straighten Queensland’s attack down the right edge. Her line running could also be a handy decoy option to create space for Upton out the back…
Brittany Brealey-Nati & Lauren Brown – Two crafty, wily dummy halves who will keep the Blues honest around the ruck and help bring Queensland’s big bodies onto the ball. Brealey-Nati will take the sting out of the game early and set things up for Brown to scheme away from behind the ruck midway through the contest. Brown had four try assists in her last three games in the NRLW season and could be a game-changer for Queensland if the game is tight.