The Rugby League Writers NRL Newsletter gets you ready for the upcoming round of action with previews, talking points and our Saturday watchlist.
Friday Night Footy
Oscar Pannifex unpacks a scrum of three talking points before every round of the NRL season with his ‘Heads In’ Round 14 Preview. This week: Sea Eagles v Cowboys, a roaming Adam Doueihi and Ash Taylor Cam.
Right Scrum-Line – Who’s feeling the pressure this week?
Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys.
It mightn’t be a top four Friday night blockbuster, but the result of this game could have major ramifications later in the season. In stark contrast to how they began the year, both Manly and North Queensland have played themselves into the kind of form that has them in position to jostle for a spot in the bottom half of the eight. That makes the two points even more valuable this week.
With both teams expected to have key players missing due to Origin, it’s the Cowboys who I think are better equipped to navigate those losses.
If Valentine Holmes is out, expect Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to move to fullback and Justin O’Neill to come into the side. Missing Holmes – who has been one of North Queensland’s best in the last month or so – will hurt, but Tabuai-Fidow is a wonderful talent and O’Neill can do a job. Aside from that, it’s all about Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden for me this week.
The duo seemingly have the rest of the season to make a case for themselves as a halves pairing before the incoming Chad Townsend is given a say on the matter. Dearden doesn’t have to light things up in his first few games, particularly given the way Drinkwater and hooker Reece Robson are playing at the moment. Expect Robson to continue directing traffic around the ruck – he has had a large part to play in the resurgent form of Jordan Maclean, Coen Hess and the like in the way he holds up markers and brings his runners onto the ball. Out wide I’ll be expecting Drinkwater to continue getting his hands on the ball often and pull the strings in good ball.
That should leave Dearden free to pick his moments to kick and run.
A miscommunication by South Sydney in the tackle certainly helped Dearden on this occasion, but it’s not the first time we’ve seen him push through contact and break the line on the right edge. Dearden is deceptively strong and has good footwork, and his running game is not something we’ve seen enough of while playing behind a beaten Broncos’ pack. If Jason Taumalolo can earn a quick play-the-ball on Friday night, I’ll be looking for Dearden to get his hands on the ball and run.
For the Sea Eagles, there are a few more unknowns in Round 14.
Tom Trbojevic is very unlikely to play meaning Rueben Garrick or possibly Dylan Walker will shift to fullback, while Cade Cust provides cover for Daly Cherry-Evans if he is rested too. With all due respect, we’ve seen how Manly have performed without Trbojevic in the past and if Cherry-Evans is missing too, the question will be where do Manly’s points come from?
With crucial playmakers missing (five-eighth turn backrower Josh Schuster is also out) a simple bash-and-crash approach through the middle makes the most sense – until you look at Manly’s bench. Walker (centre/half), Moses Suli (centre), Ben Trbojevic (utility) and Toafofoa Sipley (prop) make up one of the strangest bench combinations in recent memory, and does not lend itself to a ‘truck it up’ game plan. Marty Taupau and Taniela Paseka have been pushing out big minutes lately and it looks like they’ll be asked to do so again in Round 14.
One significant in for the Sea Eagles this week is Haumole Olakau’atu. The rookie back rower has been near-impossible to stop at times this year on the right edge and he’ll need a big game on Friday night if Manly are without their Origin stars. Against the Broncos in Round 11 we saw Manly shift the ball across the field to move the defence before swinging back the other way and feeding Olakau’atu clean, early ball to great effect.
This week, I’ll be watching for how Manly can set up for Olakau’atu in attacking field position. If Lachlan Croker, Kieran Foran or even Jake Trbojevic can get the big fella one-on-one short of the try line, I’m backing him in.
Check the full ‘Heads In! Round 14 Preview’ here.
Saturday Notepad
Jason Oliver opens up his Notepad to identify one key player, stat, trend or talking point for every team, every round of the 2021 NRL season.
Saturday
Titans
The Titans had about three chances to beat the Storm last week but none were blown quite like this one…
Brian Kelly isn’t known for his willingness as a passer. He has a bit of the Euan Aitken’s about him with the run-first style he applies to the centre position. However, I was surprised to see how high he sits in the General Play Passes column at Fox Sports Lab. We need to remove a lot of the players at the top of the list given the fact they have played in more pass-heavy positions at different points throughout the year. Still, Dane Gagai is the only full-time centre with more passes to his name than Kelly at 43.
His dummy to Phillip Sami on Saturday night was a shocker. Although, Sami countered with an equally poor effort when the Titans had a chance to win the game on the final play. The pair will be back out there next to each other again this week. We need to see them start working better together if there is any hope for this decidedly average Titans attack to improve in the future.
Roosters
The Roosters keep finding ways to win games without their best players available.
Sam Walker has been excellent this season and is the current favourite for Rookie of the Year. When he missed the match against the Raiders in Round 12, Joey Manu stepped straight into the halves to play a leading role in their 44-16 win.
This week, I’m looking at how Walker links up with Lachlan Lam in the halves. They have played together twice already this season, but are presented with an opportunity to combine as the #6 and #7 for the remainder of the season from here. How they combine, and whether or not they can steer the team around the park well enough given their inexperience, will determine how far the Roosters go in 2021.
The Roosters are an elite attacking team and it comes down to their structure. It’s all about working to areas of the field and adjusting to what the defence does in front of you, all while your teammates make the same adjustments with little to no time or communication.
It has what made the Roosters so good in recent years and how well Walker and Lam work them to those areas of the field will determine how relevant they’re going to be in September.
Rabbitohs
Thomas Burgess looked back to his best to start the season. The big Englishman collected 159 running metres per game up to Round 7, but in the five games since, he has managed just 108.6 running metres per game and now finds himself starting on the bench.
Yardage is a bit of an issue for the Rabbitohs at the moment. While conceding 50+ points twice in a season is the most obvious concern, their 11th-ranked 1,615 running metres per game is another that needs to be addressed. Since 2009, no premiership winning team has finished lower than 10th in running metres and only one lower than 7th.
Souths have an electric attack that is capable of making up for their struggling defence. However, they need to start earning more opportunities in good ball areas. Their 23.3 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line is currently 15th in the NRL.
A resurgent Burgess can help the Bunnies get back on track.
Knights
You knew it was going to be a long day for the Knights when Ryan Matterson went over this easy last week.
Regular readers know how much I like to pick out little fullbacks being caught in the line and trampled. Reed Mahoney’s subtle movement out of dummy half pulled Lachlan Fizgibbon in and allowed Matterson to head straight at Tex Hoy. It’s an excellent play from the Eels hooker, but the Knights need to do better at protecting their little #1 when he’s out there.
That try covers the general sentiment of Newcastle’s defence right now, though. They’re being beaten too easily too often and it’s a far cry from their impressive defensive performances of last season. Excuses for a poor attack are justified given the absence of Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga, but their return won’t improve the defence. It’s without the ball where the Knights need to improve if they’re to save their season.
Raiders
I was a bit of a Caleb Aekins guy.
Was being the operative word there.
Given six weeks to make a name for himself in first-grade while filling in for Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Aekins struggled. Really struggled. He looked out of place in first-grade and has finally lost his place in the side to Bailey Simonsson.
The Raiders aren’t an easy watch at the moment but Simonsson is a quality footballer and I’m excited to see how he goes at the back. He has talked about wanting the #1 jersey and this is his chance to take it given the recent discussion around Nicoll-Klokstad possibly moving into the centres.
Simonsson has started one game in the #1 jersey back in Round 25, 2019. Although, he has filled in there for short periods since then. With Nicoll-Klokstad expected to miss the remainder of the season, Simonsson has a great chance to secure the spot here. It’s also another wrinkle to add to The Dufty Conundrum.
Broncos
Karmichael Hunt’s return to the NRL is the big draw for this game. He hasn’t played in first grade since 2009 and only has seven games at Queensland Cup level to his name this year.
Hunt has shown flashes in his time with Souths Logan Magpies, but this is a massive step for the 34-year-old. It is incredible to think that he is going to pair up with Albert Kelly in the halves to headline Saturday nights blockbuster time slot – in 2021…
Hunt and Kelly did combine for this Magpies try earlier in the year:
I’m not entirely convinced about Hunt’s inclusion this week, though. He has definitely lost some speed and isn’t the individual attacking threat he once was. Unlike other aging players that can work on different parts of their game as their speed and footwork slows down, Hunt hasn’t been in the game to develop those intricacies.
Hunt will offer some experience to this Broncos outfit and is absolutely worth tuning in for on Saturday night. However, I don’t think he is the missing piece for Kevin Walters right now.
Check the full ‘NRL Notepad’ for Round 14 here.
Sunday Stakes
We’re putting a tenner down on each Sunday game in an attempt to help pay for the weekend that was.
New Zealand Warriors v Melbourne Storm: The New Zealand Warriors have been great viewing (for non-fans) in recent weeks given the way Reece Walsh has lit up the competition from fullback. Kodi Nikorima, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Chanel Harris-Tavita have been dangerous alongside him and the Warriors have produced a few highlight moments in attack as a result. Their defence is still worryingly poor, though. The Warriors have leaked 29 points on average in their last five games, putting far too much pressure on their attack to win games. This week, rugby league rookie Rocco Berry is in the centres to make for a worrying match-up with Melbourne’s Reimis Smith, and I’m expecting the Storm to test him heavily. Happy to take $2.20 for Reimis Smith anytime. ~OP
Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers: I find it difficult to trust the Tigers. There is always something with their wins that makes me cautious about them the following week. In Round 13, as impressive as it was on the night, their win came against a depleted Panthers side that lacked cohesion in attack and defence. The Eels, on the other hand, navigated a disrupted period while playing poorly and still picking up wins while Dylan Brown sat out. They’ve looked a lot better over the last fortnight, too. At close to full strength and with an opportunity to cement their place in the top four while teams around them battle Origin outs, I expect the Eels to continue to play with their foot down, just as they did last week. Eels -11.5. ~JO