With a shortened NRL Round 13 and State of Origin Game 1 just two days away, I’ve browsed over some highlight moments from the past weekend and looked ahead to how the New South Wales Blues might roll out on Wednesday night.
NRL Round 13 Shout-Outs
Canberra playing to a plan
I’ve spoken at length this year about the Canberra Raiders’ unorthodox approach to their attack.
In NRL Round 13 though, they had a clear plan to target Taane Milne on South Sydney’s right wing and Jack Wighton in particular orchestrated a number of actions to test Milne’s decision making down that edge.
Wighton’s best work came late in the piece when Tom Starling was the beneficiary of Milne’s poor defensive decisions on the paint.
Spotting Tallis Duncan filling in at centre and Michael Chee-Kam at three-man, Wighton burts to life down the short side:
Knowing he has Chee-Kam for speed, Wighton gets at Duncan’s inside shoulder to create the overlap out wide. Milne is left in no-man’s land with Corey Harawira-Naera and Jarrod Croker coming at him, and Wighton picks the right pass to send his skipper down the touchline.
The Raiders scored three tries in similar fashion in Round 13 by forcing Milne into a decision under pressure – a decision he unfortunately got wrong more often than not.
Lachlan Croker Appreciation Post
I’ve been a long-time fan of Lachlan Croker and he dished up a true captain’s knock in a losing side on Sunday afternoon. By halftime he’d made three try saving efforts in defence to keep the Knights from running out an early lead.
Watch where he comes from to deny Jackson Hastings a try from right under his very nose:
Croker has no right to be in the frame here when Dominic Young kicks back infield, but he takes it upon himself to be in position to make the play.
Gordon Chan Kum Tong is an exciting prospect for Manly currently playing in NSW Cup, but he might be waiting a while longer to make his NRL debut with efforts like this from Croker.
The ‘Fake-Block’ Shape
Jamayne Isaako was the beneficiary of a very simple, yet very effective attacking shape produced by The Dolphins on Friday night.
As they shift the ball right, Kenny Bromwich and Brenko Lee set up in what looks like a regulation block shape with Bromwich laying the lead line and Lee jockeying out the back:
When the ball gets to Bromwich though, he bounces off his left foot to run overs and engage Moses Suli’s inside shoulder.
Suddenly The Dolphins have the overlap.
Lee pops up on Bromwich’s outside to create the extra man, Suli is stuck in the mud with two players coming at him and Isaako has positioned himself wide to hold on Matthew Feagai.
The Dragons winger doesn’t know whether to jam or stay on his wing and in his indecision, Lee has time to throw the pass to Isaako who strolls over untouched.
A few other NRL sides are employing this fake-block shape and trying to put the defending winger under pressure. Having dropped back slightly for the kick, Feagai is late to jam here but usually we’ll see wingers turn in to hit the jockey and shut down the play before the pass goes wide.
When the lead runner and jockey both bounce overs though, the winger isn’t sure who to hit and that creates the space on the edge. I’m keeping an eye on this shape over the next few weeks.
State of Origin Preview: New South Wales Blues
Teamlist Analysis
1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Tevita Pangai Jnr, 9. Api Koroisau, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Hudson Young, 13. Isaah Yeo, 14. Junior Paulo, 15. Cameron Murray, 16. Liam Martin, 17. Nicho Hynes
It wouldn’t be a Brad Fittler-coached Origin side without a few curly selections.
Tevita Pangai Jnr is the obvious one. Freddy might’ve been the only man in New South Wales who had him circled for a debut but thankfully for Pangai Jnr, he’s the only man that matters.
On paper, it looks like Fittler has picked a pack to take the sting out of the game early.
Regardless of what you think of him, Pangai Jnr is a big body and a damaging ball carrier who can bring the energy to start the game. He and Payne Haas will get to work around the ruck and go toe-to-toe with Queensland’s bigger pack from the kick-off.
From there, the leg speed, mobility and pass options of NSW’s forward rotation suggests Freddy will employ a fast-pace, expansive style of footy through the middle.
Api Koroisau is key to that plan.
He can create half-chances around the ruck and help NSW generate quick play-the-balls or second phase play by passing teammates into one-on-one situations in yardage. The Blues have prolific offloaders across the park (Haas, Paulo, Pangai Jnr, Young, Murray) and one of the best support players in the game in James Tedesco to capitalise on their mobility and ball movement through the middle.
Latrell Mitchell is a huge loss but Stephen Crichton steps straight in to revive the old Penrith firm alongside Jarome Luai and Brian To’o on the left edge. Expect them to feature heavily in attack around backrower Hudson Young, who is no Viliame Kikau but offers similar variety with a run, pass or kick option.
Predicted Profile
Pre-line passes, offloads and quick play-the-balls will be key to New South Wales’ success in Game 1. By letting the ball do the work, Freddy will be hoping to compress Queensland’s defence around the ruck before shifting to their strike weapons on either edge.
When setting up in good-ball, look for NSW to lay at the right goal post before shifting through Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary to Luai on the left edge. The Penrith Panthers won back-to-back NRL premierships with a variety of shapes around Luai in attack and we might see something similar from the Blues in Game 1.
That should leave Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic to threaten down the right-hand side of the field.
Tedesco loves a blind-side raid and with Trbojevic demanding attention from the defence and Josh Addo-Carr oozing speed on the paint, the Maroons short-side will need to be on high-alert whenever NSW set up on the right tram line.
The work of Cameron Murray and Yeo in the lead up will be crucial.
Jase has already mentioned the importance of the periods either side of halftime, and Murray named on the bench suggests Freddy thinks so, too. His leg speed and pass option around the ruck once fatigue sets in will help NSW to little wins in yardage that can lead to big wins in good-ball.
Flushed with ballplaying middles, NSW will like their chances around – or in behind – Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans. Both like to shoot out and cut down the time of their opposing halves, but it can create a pass or kick opportunity in behind them.
It won’t surprise to see NSW work towards an action like this in yardage…
…or set up for Cleary to roll an early grubber kick in behind the line for Crichton or Trbojevic in the centres:
Cleary will be sure to test out the positioning of Reece Walsh out the back in his Origin debut, and both of these actions do just that while also targetting the defensive deficiencies of Munster and Cherry-Evans in the line.
Where it will be won
For New South Wales to play their preferred brand of football, they need to win the opening exchanges.
Pangai Jnr can do a job for the Blues from the kick-off, but in an ideal world he doesn’t play big minutes after his opening stint. If he and Payne Haas can get NSW on the front foot early and inject fatigue into Queensland’s pack, the Blues forward rotation will use their mobility and pass options to dominate in yardage from there.
With an early lead, Cleary can control proceedings with his kicking game and slowly starve Queensland of possession and field position. The Panthers employ a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ gameplan in clubland by staying patient in attack and Cleary is the perfect halfback to execute that high-percentage style of footy.
What NSW don’t want to be doing is chasing points.
Queensland have forged out a reputation as a grinding team that is more than happy to win it in the final minutes. New South Wales don’t have the runs on the board in that regard.
With Mitchell ruled out and Trbojevic in on the back of one good game, the Blues don’t have an embaressment of riches in attack to find points late or against the run of play.
If they can take an early lead though, Cleary has all the tools to defend that lead until fulltime.