Join us each week as we take a RLW lens to NRL SuperCoach, including a Player in Focus, our Tradeoff of the Week, POD Hits & Misses and more.
Player in Focus – David Fifita
David Fifita is an NRL SuperCoach staple renowned for scoring tries, breaking tackles and scoring 80+ points in a single hit up. He also is the brunt of criticism for the Titan’s performances, especially regarding his work rate and his combination with various halves partners in his three years on the Gold Coast. In 2023 however, I believe he could be flying under the radar and ready to claim top spot in the second row.
From a SuperCoach perspective, the attacking upside and 100+ scores are glaringly obvious positives to owning Fifita. The negative has always been his tendency to score well below par for an elite second row forward (60+ points) and his lack of involvement in games when the ball is not coming his way. The stats below show the increase in consistency from Fifita this year:
| 2021 (21 Games) | 2022 (18 Games) | 2023 (5 Games) | |
| Average Points | 85 | 66 | 75 |
| Games above 60 points | 80% | 55% | 80% |
| Games between 40 and 60 points | 10% | 39% | 20% |
| Games below 40 points | 10% | 6% | 0% |
Base points are the backbone of avoiding heartbreak and that is where Fifita has improved significantly this year. With an increase in tackles and hitups there is obvious intent from Fifita to be more involved in games and take more of the tough carries, especially when the Titans are trapped in their own half.
| 2021 (21 Games) | 2022 (18 Games) | 2023 (5 Games) | |
| Average Run Metres | 125 | 112 | 161 |
| Average Tackles | 20.8 | 23.2 | 26.0 |
| Average Line Breaks | 1.0 | 0.56 | 0.2 |
| Average Base Points | 38 | 36 | 46 |
Averaging 75 points without scoring any tries is unheard of for Fifita previously but it is exciting when you introduce the Titan’s new recruit, Kieran Foran. Foran is still settling in and battling niggling soft tissue injuries but he has a proven track record of unlocking his second rowers and Fifita is an elite option. Foran can engage defenders whilst creating space for the second rower to attack the line and isolate smaller halves one-on-one. This play is a gold mine for Fifita who, with his footwork at the line, should rack up the tackle busts, line breaks and tries to bolster his scoring to a whole new level.
The Titans have a soft upcoming draw, especially from a SuperCoach point scoring view, before a R13 bye. With Foran returning from injury and developing his combinations, Fifita is due to unlock his point scoring ability by adding attacking stats on top of a now reliable base. I have owned Fifita since R1 but non-owners should see Fifita as an appealing upgrade option as common starting cheapies reach their maximum value. From here to R13 there is every chance with a few tries Fifita will average in excess of 85 – ELITE.
Cash Cows – Hold or Upgrade
Six rounds are completed, and cash cows have had four rounds to earn money and show their NRL SuperCoach credentials. The next step is to identify which are ready to flip to season long keepers before they slide back in value, and which are solid holds and potential plays in your 17 as you put other fires out in your team.
Jacob Preston – $506,300 (BE 17) – A beneficiary of the injury crisis at the Bulldogs, Preston has been the most lucrative cash cow of this season. Averaging 60pts across an average of 74 minutes, he has been outstanding and has maintained his starting position whilst troops begin to return (recent Viliame Kikau injury news a further positive). Preston is due to regress somewhat, especially when the 108pt game against the Cowboys slips out of his rolling average but that won’t be until R8. He has a solid BPPM of 0.65 and if he holds the starting position he should score well and be a matchup suitable play in 17s. Verdict – Hold. Only a luxury trade at this stage (David Fifita or Keaon Koloamatangi).
J’Maine Hopgood – $548,500 (BE 77) – Hopgood started the season with back-to-back centuries and there were strong claims that he would be a season long hold and potential Supercoach gun. In the weeks following a strong forward pack has returned to full strength and Hopgood has become the impact second rower from the bench for the Eels. Brad Arthur has always made changes to his forward rotations and at any time Hopgood could find himself back in the starting role. For the time being I think he will average 55-60 minutes and will not lose much value, but his gains are over. Hopgood is also a player who provides value with the Eels fantastic bye coverage and will likely assume a starting position as the Origin players are out or rested. Verdict – Hold. Hopgood is a valuable option come the bye period.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira – $441,900 (BE 5) – Averaging a base of 18 points, Khan-Pereria will not be a season long holder. His recent try scoring feats have boosted his cash generation with at least one more week of guaranteed cash rises to come. However, Foran returning to the Titans side is a massive positive as he will take charge as the focal playmaker and ensure the left edge has plenty of attacking opportunities. Verdict – Sell next week (unless Foran delivers quickly). Haze Dunster or Jarrod Croker could be downgrade options or Lachlan Miller/Nick Meaney/Greg Mazhew as upgrades.
Paul Alamoti – $366,300 (BE 64) – A player last week who I was excited by and could have been a long term hold was unlucky to be pushed to the wing last game when Josh Addo-Carr went down injured and is now a sell after an 11 point game. The left side for the Bulldogs has not been as dominant as expected, as Jacob Kiraz and Jake Averillo have excelled, and with Kikau now out for three months the attacking stats will be shared across the park more evenly, minimising Alamoti’s chance for those big scoring games. Verdict – Sell now. Similar options as Khan Pereria.
William Warbrick – $390,100 (BE 48) – A Melbourne Storm winger cheapie is historically a lock and load option. Warbrick has been solid without exciting and a lot of this comes down to the dominance of Cameron Munster. Whilst Munster has been playing and dominating down the left edge for the Storm, attacking opportunities are limited for the right-side winger; on average Melbourne have scored 1.7 tries on the left to every 0.7 tries on the right. With byes in R9 and R13, Warbrick is not an option long term and should be sold soon, although the next two weeks against Manly and New Zealand could be big games for the winger. Verdict – Sell. Only a hold on faith that he gets attacking stats – he has too low of a floor to be a reliable play in 17s.
Hits and Misses
Hits: My top five POD targets for the next few weeks.
Nicho Hynes – At a BE of 0 it is now or never. Hynes has shown his potential and I could not watch any Sharks game for the remaining 20 weeks without owning him. A safe captain option, a proven SuperCoach Gun and exceptionally wet hair. Get him in.
Soni Luke – We highlighted Soni last week, but after the huge increase in minutes I believe he deserves another mention. The Panthers look better with Luke on the field and his ability to provide attacking spark similar to Api Koroisau is too valuable to not play for longer. A R13 bye hurts especially for Grant/Mahoney owners looking for bye coverage.
Ryan Matterson – A three round average of 72 points since returning from suspension has Matterson flying under the radar owned by 0.75% of teams. Eels play all major bye rounds and in the run to the Origin period have a much friendlier draw then their opening six rounds. Major POD value.
Nick Cotric – A draft prospect here but owned by only 4.6% of draft teams, Cotric is a solid winger in a Raiders outfit with a soft upcoming schedule barring their R8 bye.
Kalyn Ponga/Luke Thompson/AJ Brimson – Injury watch and stash! All three have had positive updates on their injuries and are due back in the coming weeks. Sneaky waiver experts can grab real Supercoach quality here from owners who gave up on their picks.
Misses: My top five avoids.
Tom Gilbert – Whilst the Dolphins are everyone’s new favourite team, avoid the hype with Gilbert. The second highest scorer in the front row position this year has had a lot of attacking stats boosting his scoring. With the second lowest BPPM of the top ten front rowers, expect to see a regression as the attacking stats dry up.
Cameron Munster – Munster at fullback is always an enticing prospect in SuperCoach and he showed his upside last week in the halves. At 5/8 however, both Dylan Brown and Cody Walker play an additional two games by R13 as Melbourne have byes in R9 and R13. Whilst Munster may score more on average during this time, the smarter play is one of the cheaper options that will outscore him in total throughout this period.
Haze Dunster – Patience is key with cheapies. Using the two games before a price change rather than trading in early is always the preferred option. Unavoidable if you’re needing a downgrade to afford a gun elsewhere, but never the preference. Every chance Dunster is out of the side next week as Waqa Blake and Bailey Simonsson are waiting on the sidelines.
Jarrod Croker – Copy and paste from above (although I prefer Croker to Dunster if you need to pick one).
Rueben Garrick – This is aimed at owners trading out Garrick. This season trades will be at a premium and trading out guns who provide dual position cover, play R13 and get to minimize the damage of a high breakeven against the Tigers next week just doesn’t stack up.
Written by Lachlan Baxter for Rugby League Writers