Join us each week as we take a RLW lens to NRL SuperCoach.
Bye Period Planning
A round for the favourites across the NRL, and a SuperCoach round where scores were very consistent with little movement in the rankings. Whilst most coaches are trying to pick who will be in the Origin squads, the much more important question is: Who is going to miss out and who can cover for our squads while the byes wreak havoc?
This week’s article is searching for the value and POD plays for every position through the SuperCoach Bye period. The below is based on who I predict to score the most points between R13 and R20, and the best value pick through this period. All picks are very team dependent and counting numbers for every week is important, especially minor bye rounds where Origin players may be rested and seventeen players are required not thirteen.
Hooker
Top Point Scorer: Jeremy Marshall-King – The easy gun choice behind a fantastic forward pack that is surprising teams week on week. Playing seven of the eight games and averaging 69pts, Marshall-King has the third best base point average of the regular 80 minute hookers. Maintaining an average of 69pts is not sustainable but the Dolphins have a favourable draw and arguably their most difficult games against the Eels (R17) and the Panthers (R20) could be against weakened teams as Origin players are rested.
Value Pick: Honourable mentions are Reed Mahoney and Blake Brailey, but the best value lies in North Queensland at the Cowboys, Reece Robson. Robson is at least 10pts underpriced at $575,200 and his current season average of 59pts is conservative when you consider the struggles the Cowboys have faced this season. An attack that has finally clicked means that Robson will finally be able to collect his chunk of the attacking stats and boost his average currently based on a rock-solid base.
Front Row Forward
Top Point Scorer: Tohu Harris – One of the most consistent SuperCoach talents, Harris has averaged 65pts in an injury affected season basing 54pts. The bye this week will help the battered Warriors regroup and they then play seven of the next eight games. Harris is one of the few players unaffected by draws or team form as he consistently gets through a massive workload in big minutes. Priced at an average of 56.8pts and a breakeven of 18pts, Tohu will rise in value and is a fantastic season long keeper.
Value Pick: Thomas Flegler – The Broncos prop is set to become the pack leader for this squad whilst Patrick Carrigan and Payne Haas are busy on Origin duty. Last week he played 67 minutes showing his ability to handle the larger workload and whilst the points didn’t stun last week, the penalty count destroyed any flow to this game where he would normally gain base points. A ten-point increase in his average should be easily achieved and he is great value at $397,700.
Second Row Forward
Top Point Scorer: J’Maine Hopgood – Tohu Harris is also relevant here because of his dual status but Hopgood is the upside 2RF. A massive breakout season has been characterised by three centuries and a work rate unrivalled in the position as he holds the second-best base point average. The Eels pack is already missing Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Shaun Lane to injury, while Junior Paulo has Origin duty which only means more minutes for Hopgood. He has proven he can play the full 80minutes and Brad Arthur will lean on Hopgood as the Eels work through the bye period. The Eels have fantastic bye coverage, and their draw is outstanding for Hopgood who can easily stay in your team all season.
Value Pick: Adam Elliott – Elliott made his NRL return via the bench last week and will again increase his match fitness from the pine against the Sharks this week. A player who should comfortably average 60-65pts, Elliott is yet to prove his value in his new role at the Knights. Priced at an average of 52pts, he should make at least $100k as he takes the lock role for the Knights. Elliott will be responsible for connecting a solid forward pack that will gain yardage to an exciting backline currently holding three of the top six tackle breakers in the competition.
Halfback
Top Point Scorer: Shaun Johnson – It seems crazy to write this, but Johnson’s resurgence this season has been too much to ignore. Playing seven of the eight games in this period, availability is sometimes the most important factor when trades are at a premium. Johnson has averaged 69pts with fantastic games against Panthers (71pts) and Sharks (117pts) showing he is not just reliant on huge scores against weaker teams. His kicking game has been much improved and the ability to show up and play alongside four different halves partners shows his maturity.
Value Pick: Jamal Fogarty – The Raiders halfback hit one of the sweetest 40/20’s last week as the cherry on top of a great recent run of games where he has produced a three-round average of 65pts. Priced at an average of 55pts, Fogarty should see an increase in value as the Raiders move forward on the back of their experienced forward pack. Wighton is available and the squad will be relatively unaffected with Origin duties now meaning they can capitalise on weakened teams. The goal kicker for the Raiders is ready to excel and only misses one major bye week.
Five-Eighth
Top Point Scorer: Dylan Brown – Averaging 72 and 73 points respectively, almost nothing splits Brown and Cody Walker. The one difference that separates them for me is the extremely high floor Brown possesses. Averaging 37pts in base, Brown blows any other five-eighth out of the water. Eels play all the major bye rounds and Brown is the highest priority Eel in my opinion. Loading up on the Eels contingent should be limited however, as they have the minor bye in R14 and teams will be struggling to field full 17’s.
Value Pick: Isaiya Katoa – The Dolphins rookie has been solid this year but each week is showing more of his attacking flair as he settles into the NRL. His last three weeks he has averaged 46pts, exceeding his season average by 8pts. Katoa is significantly underpriced, plays seven of the eight games and has dual status which means he can be a fantastic plug and play option. The Dolphins have proved they are a solid NRL outfit and Katoa’s SuperCoach credentials are legitimate as he capitalises on the fantastic platform the forward pack is setting.
Centre / Wings
Top Point Scorer: Jamayne Isaako – With a 74-point average, the goal kicker for the Dolphins is arguably the most improved player in SuperCoach this year. Whilst reliant on scoring tries, Isaako is the Dolphins strike weapon on the edge and has proven his ability as an elite finisher. His lowest score all season has been 44pts and shows a significant improvement in his base and reduces the risk of owning in a volatile position. He will likely lose money during the Origin period with his current high price tag, but he will put points on the board and at the end of the day SuperCoach is won with the most points, not the most value.
Value Pick: Billy Smith – A breakeven of –62 and priced at only $289,500, Smith is fantastic value as a lone shining light in a confused Roosters squad. The Roosters miss two of the major bye rounds but at this price, in great form and with good job security Smith could net owners at least $200,000 and average above 55pts. Basing a massive 44 points, Smith has not just jagged lucky attacking stats and is a legitimate play option in 17’s any week regardless of oppositions.
Fullback
Top Point Scorer: Scott Drinkwater – The Cowboys fullback has struggled to start the season but in the last three games the Cowboys are showing the resilience in defense and the points in attack that they dominated last season with. Only missing one of the major bye rounds and playing significantly weakened Eels outfits (R13) and Panthers outfits (R16), the Cowboys should perform well during the bye period. The spine for the Cowboys will be one of the least disrupted and whilst the pack will be weakened, the Cowboys have every opportunity to resurrect their season and Drinkwater will be central to it all.
Value Pick: Tom Trbojevic – This is a long shot but there is every chance Turbo rules himself out of Origin as he works on his body and focuses on Manly. Whilst there is an enormous amount of noise around how Turbo looks on the field and whatever gear he may be in, he is still producing solid SuperCoach scores. At a cheap price in a position where no standout is emerging that won’t play Origin, keeping Turbo on the watchlist or holding on trading out could be a genius move.
Written by Lachlan Baxter for Rugby League Writers