Join us each week as we take a RLW lens to NRL SuperCoach, including a Player or Team in Focus, our Tradeoff of the Week, POD Hits & Misses and more.
Team in Focus: North Queensland Cowboys
Magic Round has come and gone and bye planning is well underway.
One of the biggest surprises from NRL Round 10 was the long-awaited return of a tough, gritty North Queensland Cowboys outfit who took the two points on offer against the Sydney Roosters. The Cowboys have started the season surprisingly slow and are the 7th worst SuperCoach scoring side in the NRL. Lacking tackle breaks and any overall ability to penetrate the line, the Cowboys have played without attacking spark or defensive resilience. In Magic Round however, they returned to their ‘compete & complete’ gameplan of 2022 to produce their best performance of the season so far.
Now, onto the positives. The Cowboys offer fantastic bye coverage through the Origin period as they play R13 and R16. They observe a bye in R15 where other sides can provide coverage, and then again in R19 when you can move them on.
Throughout the 2023 NRL season so far, the Cowboys have averaged 650 SuperCoach points per game as a team but their performance in Magic round netted a grand total of 760 points. Whilst one game does not prove their season has turned around, if they produce these performances consistently Reece Robson and Scott Drinkwater are perfect bye period targets.
A close watch on the Cowboys game this week is a must, or you could pull the trigger now on an early POD play if you believe in their season has turned a corner.
Last week North Queensland performed collectively and across the board they improved on a number of key stats.
Much of the Cowboys attack in NRL Round 10 came through Helium Luki and Rueben Cotter in the forwards. Chad Townsend and Tom Dearden still struggled to execute set plays in the backline with Drinkwater, but straight line running and quick play-the-balls from Luki and Cotter allowed the Cowboys to dominate the ruck and give Holmes and Dearden to an opportunity to attack in broken play on the edges.
It’s worth noting that the Cowboys missed tackle count in Round 10 was higher than their season average. They still slipped off too many attempted tackles against the Roosters, but their repeat defensive efforts in cover did enough to keep Easts to just six points.
Tradeoff of the Week: Reece Robson & Scott Drinkwater
Reece Robson has been solid without being spectacular so far this NRL season. A base of 49 points is fantastic but his two tries, one assist and two line breaks is far below his potential. If the Cowboys continue to straighten their attack and win the ruck, Robson will be the first beneficiary.
Drinkwater was my first pick in my draft competition this year and that has been just as painful as it sounds. He is improving though and in his last three games has significantly increased his work load and general involvement, rising his base from an average of 15.5 points in his first three games to 33 points in his last three.
All Cowboys players can be watched for another week to ensure this wasn’t a one-off game, but to maximise the benefit jumping on this week could prove invaluable. If North Queensland can maintain their new-found form, both Robson and Drinkwater profile as quality trade-in targets.
Hits and Misses
Hits: My top five POD targets for the next few weeks.
Alex Johnston – The Rabbitohs winger has bottomed in price, his draw significantly improves from here and South Sydney are the form team of the competition right now. Whilst Origin will impact the team, Cody Walker & Co. are poised to take advantage. Whilst the left edge is not as favoured as previous years, points are plentiful across the park for the Rabbitohs.
Reuben Garrick – Back on the wing with a full suite of centres healthy, the Manly winger is bottom dollar and ready to provide Origin cover. His 83 points on the weekend was without any tries or assists is outstanding given the way in which the Manly side were dominated by Brisbane.
Tyrell Sloan – The largest tradeout target this week, and it is the right move. Fullback is an elite position where points and consistency need to prioritised. The one exception is Bula, who looks like a great cash making option in the run into the Origin period. If you own Sloan, sell him.
Thomas Flegler – The Broncos front rower has been eased into the season and the last two games he has finally begun playing over 50minutes. With majority of the Broncos forward pack likely to get the call up for Origin, Flegler will gain extra minutes and become the main man. With a breakeven of 20, Flegler could be a cheap buy now even if you don’t play him in your 17 until R13.
Adam Elliott – A draft stash for now but a fantastic player who has been injured all season and with the lack of reserves in draft competitions he is likely sitting on the waivers. Whilst returning from the bench and likely to have reduced minutes for a few games, with a PPM above 1.0 last season with even just 60 minutes per game (I expect he’ll play more once fit) he will be a valuable player.
Misses: My top five avoids.
Valynce Te Whare – This week’s biggest trade-in has red flags all over him. Whilst his debut was outstanding, the tackle breaking centre has to wait an additional three weeks before price rises becuase of the Dolphins’ bye. In three weeks, a lot can change and Brenko Lee has always been favoured by Wayne Bennett. Patience is key.
Jacob Kiraz – Whilst having an outstanding season, patience is required before trading Kiraz back in. A high breakeven of 128 points means that he will drop a lot more cash as the six-point, injury affected game is in his rolling average for the next few weeks. Kiraz also showed signs of easing back from injury with his Round 10 base significantly below his season average (27pts vs 38pts) and time to work back to fitness while he cheapens is ideal.
Ryan Matterson – The Eels second rower is a SuperCoach gun and his 78 points in 52 minutes last round is clear proof of this. There are concerns around Matterson however, as he may become a victim of his success and get a call up for the Blues side as their forward pack is significantly weakened. If you own him now, he is most definitely a hold but for teams planning for the bye it’s a case of wait and see. Also, keep an eye on his minutes. Whilst 78 points is fantastic, 52 minutes is well below average and if it stays this low consistently there could be some regression in his scoring.
Cameron Murray – A great player but one who is just not getting SuperCoach points this year while being owned by over 30% of teams. Whilst the Rabbitohs are firing and Murray is playing big minutes, Souths forward pack is returning to full fitness and the points are aluding Murray. A painful trade especially at such low value but it is time to cut ties – Murray is a sell.
Warriors & Dolphins players – Planning is essential, and identifying the players from these sides that you want for the bye period is important. The plan should be to get them into your side after their bye however. There are many good options from these sides such as Jeremy Marshall King, Jamayne Isaako, Tohu Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake and sitting down to plan trades for the next three weeks will make sure you get all the guns you need.
Written by Lachlan Baxter for Rugby League Writers