Join us each week as we take a RLW lens to NRL SuperCoach, including a Player in Focus, our Tradeoff of the Week, POD Hits & Misses and more.
Players in Focus: Jack Bird & Jack de Belin
A lower scoring Round 9 has come and gone and all eyes turn towards Magic Round and the Origin period looming near. Whilst the majority of the attention for the bye round is centered around the firing Eels, their R14 and R18 byes mean that SuperCoaches will have to be selective with their choices. A maximum of four Eels is about right and likely less for teams with Manly and Newcastle players as the reduced bye in R14 will leave teams very short as the seventeen man scoring returns.
St George-Illawarra are the fifth worst team for Supercoach scoring this season but two players are standing out in their forward pack; Jack De Belin and Jack Bird. Crucially they provide R13 and R14 coverage, and with an extremely soft draw against the two bottom placed teams (Tigers and Cowboys) they are great value choices.
Jack De Belin has been eased into the season after some minor early injuries, but in his last three weeks he has solidified his role in the Dragons pack. Playing in a role that has lessened the reliance on Ben Hunt, De Belin is providing ball playing at first receiver and helping to shift the ball to their edges or to a flying Tyrell Sloan. Statistically and SuperCoach scoring wise, De Belin doesn’t quite catch the eye, but this is heavily impacted by his first two games of the season where he was eased back via the bench.
Jack Bird has been the unlikely creator, contributing a try and six assists in his eight games so far this season. Averaging 62 points, the dual position edge back rower has been explosive across the park. A base of only 41 points is not by any means astounding for a 2RF but the tackle breaks, offloads and line break assists Bird has provided have been instrumental to his attacking upside. Running outside Talatau Amone and Hunt, Bird has excelled at turning the hips of defenders and busting through the outside shoulder.
A look at the stats is interesting. It seems to be a tradeoff between faith in the attacking upside and an extremely solid base.
The dual position status of both players is also significant. The flexibility DPP provides cannot be understated. However, with the lack of options at FRF this year, the ability to play an 80-minute lock in the FRF position is invaluable. Whilst Bird’s flexibility at CTW is also useful, his ceiling will never reach the heights a true CTW gun can achieve and is more useful play at 2RF where depth is also strong this year.
Tradeoff of the Week:
From current data I think de Belin is the better POD option. With a low breakeven he is as cheap as he will get this year and R13 is dire for FRF options as Joe Tapine and perhaps Corey Horsburgh are the only standouts, but they will be owned by the majority. This week he was listed in the front row which will definitely change his role but I like the possible change. Not playing at lock will mean a decrease in his passes, and give more opportunity to increase his tackle busts, offloads and potentially a try.
Hits and Misses
Hits: My top five POD targets for the next few weeks.
Tyrone Peachey – A lot of the interest in Peachey is about planning for R12 where he will almost certainly gain dual position status at 2RF and CTW. A Panthers backline player is always a great buy especially a player like Peachey who breaks tackles, has good ball skills and can crash over for a try. Most teams are looking for a cheapie and Peachey is perfect except for his R13 bye.
Jahream Bula – A straight forward cash grab for a finally winning Tigers outfit. Cheapies generally have a very low floor but with a base point average of 27 points Bula should never disappoint with any shocking scores. Again in a team not playing R13, but there is a play for SuperCoaches who grab Bula for the next three weeks of price rises before trading to a R13 gun as Origin players depart (Clint Gutherson or Reece Walsh).
Corey Horsburgh – While Joe Tapine is struggling to find his attacking upside Horsburgh has excelled in his new spot in the 13 jersey. Averaging 70 minutes and 58 base points in the last three matches coupled with R13 coverage, Horsburgh may be the must-own Raider for the upcoming stretch. A breakeven of 6 is enticing especially as the Raiders finally reverted to last year’s game plan with a season high 24 offloads.
Helium Luki – A draft prospect to start but could be a R13 POD for Classic SuperCoaches. Luki has been named to start and in his limited minutes at the start of the year was one of the few players showing real energy and intent for the Cowboys. A tough injury history but a player with attacking upside at a bargain price.
Matthew Timoko – A real POD option in a stacked CTW position this year, Timoko has been fantastic this year. He’s is not a huge upside player but with only two games scoring less than 40 points, he has been more consistent than Holmes, Garrick and To’o. The Raiders have a fantastic upcoming draw and I believe they could win four of their upcoming six games.
Misses: My top five avoids.
Max Feagai – Zac Lomax has been dropped but there is no way he spends extended time in the NSW Cup. Feagai has played only one game so hold off trading in the hope of a cash grab for a player with arguably the most questionable job security in the competition.
Jayden Campbell – I understand the hype, but I see Campbell in a very similar mould to Tyrell Sloan. Whilst the potential to score huge tons is evident, the potential to score single digits is almost equally likely. A tough matchup against an improving Eels outfit this week and no R13 coverage means that Campbell is a miss for me.
Jack Wighton – History has shown Wighton is not a Supercoach friendly player and prior to last week he was averaging 41 points. The emotion of the last week was indescribable and as great as the fairytale is I believe there are many safer options in his position that still play R13 (Dylan Brown and Cody Walker).
Valentine Holmes – Holmes has been a very popular trade-out option this week. Before his 29 points last week, Holmes averaged 68 points whilst being poorly utilized in a team missing all creative spark, which is very solid. The Roosters matchup this week is difficult but the Dragons and Tigers as they run towards R13 are great games for Holmes. The Cowboys struggling also means they can’t afford to rest their gun players during the Origin games and it’s likely Holmes will backup wherever possible. He’s a solid hold for me.
Origin players – They are the best players in the game and inevitably are great SuperCoach scorers, but now is not the time to purchase. The byes are huge moving weeks and planning accordingly can rocket you up the overall rankings. They’ll come into our teams inevitably but just hold strong, there’s value elsewhere.