Ten became four and now four has become two as the 2023 NRLW competition finally arrives at this Sunday’s grand final.
Regular readers will know I was keen on the Sydney Roosters throughout the regular season but an upset loss to the Gold Coast Titans last week sees Karyn Murphy’s squad take on the defending premiers, Newcastle, in this year’s big dance.
The bookies have the Knights as comfortable favourites but I’m not ruling out another defensive showing from the Titans again this week. Their performance against Sydney in the preliminary finals was one of the best I’ve ever seen across the NRL or NRLW in a finals game and they’ve got the systems to trouble Newcastle in this one.
Here’s what I’ve picked out as deciding factors for both teams heading into Sunday’s NRLW grand final.
Deciding Factors
Newcastle Knights
Plagued by ill-discipline to begin the year, the Newcastle Knights have found what works for them in the back half of the season.
A strong yardage game supported by a productive back five has helped the Knights finish near the top of the NRLW for total run metres this season. Throw in the kicking game of Jesse Southwell (fourth-most total kick metres) and the Knights have always been competitive – and often dominant – in yardage this year.
The work of rookie wingers Sheridan Gallagher (avg 112 run metres) and Jasmin Strange (89m) in particular has stood for their consistency:
This passage is one we saw every other week as the Knights outside backs got busy working out of their own end. If they can get this right again on Sunday it will go a long way to generating an effective attack, particularly given how well the Titans have presented their kick chase over the last few weeks.
With the back five and forwards getting downhill, Newcastle have had the luxury of building combinations across the park thanks to a blessed run with injuries this year.
Goergia Roche and Yasmin Clydesdale have had some nice moments on the left edge while Southwell and Tamika Upton have been a highlight of the Knights attack in 2023. By completing their sets and staying in the grind, Southwell and the Knights have learned that Upton is good enough to win them games from there.
How Upton involves herself on Sunday is what I’m looking out for.
Front-rower Caitlan Johnston has been my favourite player in the NRLW for a few years now and some of her involvements last week stood out. She’s one of the most destructive ball carriers in the competition with an average 129 running metres per game, and while I don’t have access to the numbers I’d hazard she’s got one of the quickest play-the-balls in the competition.
It was her skill though that made a difference against the Broncos last week.
Some brilliant ballplaying from Hannah Southwell is backed up by an even better offload as Johnston gets into her work here. With two in the tackle, Johnston shrugs one off before dragging another a few metres and getting the offload away to her fullback…
Like I said at the top, Upton is good enough to win you games from there – and she did just that again early in the second half.
Johnston isn’t creditted for a try assist here but Upton doesn’t score two tackles later without this involvement from the big prop:
A nice dart from Nita Maynard compresses Brisbane’s line before she tips to Johnston. There’s an acre of space to Johnston’s outside and she manages to get a good pass away despite the jamming defence in her face. That pass finds Kayla Romanuik who is brought down by Ali Brigginshaw a long way in from her usual position.
A great read from Romy Teitzel shuts down Roche on the following play but thanks to the work of Johnston, the Broncos defensive line is now completely disjointed on tackle five.
They’ve now got two middle forwards – Mariah Denman and Chelsea Lenarduzzi – filling up on Brigginshaw’s short side and Upton burns them like she should:
There’s a recipe for success in here for the Knights. If they can get Johnston into positive actions in yardage, she can scatter the defence and open things up on the following play.
That all flows on from how Newcastle can start their sets on Sunday; a productive back five into a damaging forward pack into an Upton involvement at a retreating or disjointed defence.
While the Knights will bring plenty of confidence into this game and are deserving favourites, it’s important they don’t try to win it early. The Titans have made it this far on their defence and will be happy to drag this into a grind from kick-off to fulltime. Newcastle have the cattle to run over the top of the Gold Coast in this one, but they need to be prepared to do it late in the second half.
Gold Coast Titans
While the Knights have lit up the 2023 NRLW season with some fast, skillfull and enterprising footy, the Titans have adopted a more old-school approach.
After 10 games played, the Titans defence ranks third in the NRLW to concede just 12.6 points per game – those are Penrith Panthers numbers. They won six games in the regular season by an average winning margin of just 6.3 points, relying on defence while their attack struggled without experienced five-eighth Taliah Fuimaono on the field.
It didn’t matter, though.
By frontloading their efforts without the ball, the Titans embraced the grind all year and have been happy to win games by a try or less, often in the final minutes. It has them in good stead for this Sunday’s grand final in the sense that this Titans squad is comfortable being uncomfortable in 2023.
Their forward pack is largely to thank for this.
In Georgia Hale, Jessika Elliston and Shannon Mato, the Gold Coast employ the best starting middle trio in the NRLW. All three have been up there with the best in their respective positions in 2023 and it’s undoubtedly an area of strength for the Titans in this one.
While the Knights have performed well in yardage this year, it’s the Titans who sit above them in second place for total run metres in season 2023. Strong through contact and offering a tip option through the middle, if any side in the NRLW has the pack to go with Newcastle in this one, its the Titans.
The efforts of fullback Evania Pelite will be key to this on Sunday.
In her second season in the NRLW, Pelite has found her feet in a difficult position and has been one of the form fullbacks in the competition this year. She’s peaking at the right time, too; Pelite clocked 263 metres from 26 carries last week to be a constant presence all the way up the field.
Some of her in-goal escapes have been a highlight of the Titans goal-line defence this year. I highlighted this passage from back in NRLW Round 4 as the Gold Coast went with Newcastle for the best part of 60 minutes:
“An early Zara Canfield error inside Gold Coasts 20m line gifted Newcastle first shot in attack but the Titans held their nerve.
Some good defence from Georgia Hale and Brittany Brealey-Nati through the middle repells Newcastle’s ruck attack while Pelite positions herself smartly out the back.
You can see Pelite slot in at left centre with Jaime Chapman caught up in the tackle before repositioning back behind the ruck on play five:
A well-weighted grubber from Upton is plucked off the deck by Pelite who reads it perfectly and escapes into the field of play.
We didn’t see Pelite in these areas last year. She’s had an offseason to work out the intricacies of fullback play and she’s got a better base level of fitness this time around, too.”
If Pelite can get her positioning right on her own line and the forwards get rolling downhill in yardage, the opportunities will eventually appear for Lauren Brown and Chapman in good-ball. It’s been the Titans most reliable avenue for points this season and it’s surely where they go looking on Sunday.
Brown has had some success dropping Chapman back against the grain and it’s a shape I’m certain we’ll see this weekend:
Newcastle will also be expecting these actions from Chapman but defending it successfully is another story.
The Titans can be confident of troubling the scoreboard if they spend enough time on the Knights line and they’ve got the fullback and front row to earn that field position. Keeping Newcastle to under 12 or 18 points will be key; I’m not sure the Titans have the attack to go with the Knights in a shoot-out.
If they can stay in the grind and be thereabouts in the back end of the second-half though, the Titans will be in a position they’ve won from a few times already this year. They’re happy to win it ugly and it’s where they might have the advantage over Newcastle in this one.